A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.     

Stress state in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son basins, offshore Vietnam

The results presented in this paper are the first published estimates of the complete stress tensor in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son basins, offshore Vietnam. We analysed in situ stress and pore pressure fields in the sedimentary formations using data from petroleum exploration and production wells to evaluate the stress state in these basins. The data were obtained from the seafloor to 4300 m burial depth and include both hydrostatic and overpressured sections. Minimum horizontal stresses were obtained from extended leak-off tests and mini-fracture tests. Maximum horizontal stresses were estimated from drilling-induced fracture parameters and borehole breakout widths in twelve wells using rock properties measured in the laboratory or estimated empirically from wireline logs. Seven data points are located in sediments, and seventeen data points in igneous basement rocks at depths greater than 3000 m.The estimated magnitudes of σ_H are 70-110% of the σ_v magnitudes. Considering the errors in the stress magnitude estimates, their relative magnitudes suggest that a borderline normal/strike-slip stress regime presently exists in normally pressured sequences of the Nam Con Son and Cuu Long basins. Of the twenty-four data points, twenty have effective stress ratios at a critical stress state for faulting on the assumption that there are faults present that are optimally oriented for failure with friction coefficients of ∼0.5. The results suggest that the stress state in these basins is generally critical.     

Biological controls on dissolution of diatom frustules during their descent to the deep ocean: Lessons learned from controlled laboratory experiments

The majority of opal produced by diatoms dissolves during their sedimentation to the seafloor, but spatial and temporal variability of dissolution rates are large. Controlled laboratory experiments using live phytoplankton or phyto-detritus may help identify the different processes, including those that are biologically mediated or physico-chemically driven, that impact the dissolution of frustules and the aforementioned variability. Results of eight bSiO₂ dissolution experiments, seven of which were conducted at low temperatures (<6 °C) are presented within the context of earlier similar studies, and different phases of dissolution dynamics characterized. TEP concentration, aggregation and the physiological status of the diatoms determined the period during which diatoms may maintain the protective membrane that surrounds their frustule and effectively reduces or completely inhibits (lag period) dissolution for some time. Once diatoms loose the capability to maintain their protective membrane, bacterial activity compromises it. Physico-chemical dissolution, which depends on frustule structure and abiotic environmental conditions, begins once the protective membrane is damaged. The ability of diatoms to maintain their membrane, the bacterial composition and activity governing its degradation, and the physico-chemical dissolution dynamics of exposed frustules are all impacted by temperature. In our experiments instantaneous dissolution rates were not dependant on bSiO₂ concentration at low temperatures, although such a relationship was observed under otherwise identical conditions at 15 °C, implying that biotic factors rather than physico-chemical processes initially dominated dissolution at polar temperatures. Since inhibition of bSiO₂ dissolution at low temperatures was inhibited to a greater extent than organic matter degradation, we postulate that it was not reduced bacterial activity but the enhanced ability of diatoms to maintain their membrane and thus withstand microbial attack that caused the low initial dissolution rates at <6 °C. In situ, interactions between the different biotic and abiotic processes impacting dissolution combined with differences in sinking velocity of diatom aggregates and grazing effects could easily explain high spatial and temporal variability in the accumulation of diatoms on the seafloor. Simple calculations based on our experimental results suggest that Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, for example, would be appreciably more likely to reach the seafloor than Chaetoceros debilis if both grow at low growth rates, e.g. under growth limiting conditions. However, dissolution behavior of Chaetoceros debilis during sedimentation may differ under conditions where this species forms large blooms.     

兰州邻区活断层潜在地震最大震级及其危险性评估

兰州附近的庄浪河断裂和白银白杨树沟断裂是对兰州市地震安全有一定影响的晚第四纪活动断裂,但沿断裂发生的中强破坏性地震较为复杂甚至不明确。如何评价西部地区此类断裂的最大潜在地震震级及其危险性是地震中长期预测和地震区划研究中较为重要的问题之一。本文借鉴闻学泽等(2007)对中国大陆东部中-弱活断层潜在地震最大震级评估的思路,建立了兰州地区最大地震震级Mmax与断层小区震级-频度关系参数at/b值之间的经验公式;并采用经验公式外推得到庄浪河断裂和白杨树沟断裂的震级上限Mu分别为MS6.9、6.3,进而评估了这两条断裂的地震平均复发间隔和发震概率。     

Palaeomagnetism of the loess/palaeosol sequence in Viatovo (NE Bulgaria) in the Danube basin

The results of a palaeomagnetic investigation of a 27 m thick loess/palaeosol sequence in Viatovo (NE Bulgaria) are presented in this paper. The sequence consists of topsoil S₀, seven loess horizons (L₁–L₇) and six interbedded palaeosols (S₁–S₆) overlying a red clay (terra rossa) complex. Magnetic viscosity experiments, IRM acquisition, AMS analysis and NRM stepwise alternating and thermal demagnetisation experiments of pilot samples were implemented for precise determination of the characteristic remanence and construction of a reliable magnetostratigraphical scheme. Analysis of IRM acquisition curves using the expectation – maximization algorithm of Heslop et al. [Heslop, D., Dekkers, M., Kruiver, P., van Oorschot, H., 2002. Analysis of isothermal remanent magnetization acquisition curves using the expectation – maximization algorithm. Geophys. J. Int., 148, 58–64] suggests that the best fitting is obtained by three coercivity components. Component 1 corresponds to SD maghemite/magnetite, while component 2 is probably related to the presence of oxidised detrital magnetites. The third component shows varying coercivities depending on the degree of pedogenic alteration of the samples and probably reflects the presence of detrital magnetite grains oxidised at different degree.

The relevance of the Viatovo section as a key representative sequence for the loess cover in the Danube basin is confirmed by the presence of geomagnetic polarity changes in the lower part of the sequence. The youngest one recorded in the seventh loess unit L₇ can be identified as corresponding to the Matuyama/Brunhes palaeomagnetic polarity transition. Two normal magnetozones were found in the red clay complex, probably corresponding to the Jaramillo and Olduvai subchronozones of the Matuyama chron.     

Reconstruction of paleocoastlines for the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum

The range of relative sea level rise in the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum was over 100 m. As a result, lowland regions including the Northeast Vietnam coast, Beibu Gulf, and South China coast experienced an evolution from land to sea. Based on the principle of reconstructing paleogeography and using recent digital elevation model, relative sea level curves, and sediment accumulation data, this paper presents a series of paleogeographic scenarios back to 20 cal. ka BP for the northwestern South China Sea. The scenarios demonstrate the entire process of coastline changes for the area of interest. During the late glacial period from 20 to 15 cal. ka BP, coastline slowly retreated, causing a land loss of only 1×10⁴ km², and thus the land-sea distribution remained nearly unchanged. Later in 15–10 cal. ka BP coastline rapidly retreated and area of land loss was up to 24×10⁴km², causing lowlands around Northeast Vietnam and South China soon to be underwater. Coastline retreat continued quite rapidly during the early Holocene. From 10 to 6 cal. ka BP land area had decreased by 9×10⁴km², and during that process the Qiongzhou Strait completely opened up. Since the mid Holocene, main controls on coastline change are from vertical crustal movements and sedimentation. Transgression was surpassed by regression, resulting in a land accretion of about 10×10⁴km². Supported by Key Laboratory of Marginal Sea Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MSGL0711), the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 04001309) and Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MGE2007KG04)     

Discussion on Principles and Methods in Estimating the Maximum Potential Earthquakes in Low Seismicity Areas

Five principles and methods are proposed for estimating the maximum potential earthquakesin low seismicity areas,and their applicabilities are discussed,taking Sichuan basin as asample area.The proposed principles and methods are not only on the grounds of thegeological tectonics but also considered fully the mutual complementation between geologicaland seismological methods.They will be helpful to the study of engineering seismology andthe assessment of designing ground motion parameters in low seismicity areas.     

伽师及邻近地区GPS地壳形变监测及初步分析

通过对伽师及邻近地区ＧＰＳ监测网的优化布设和两期观测资料的分析,对伽师及邻近地区的地形变特征进行了探讨,认为伽师地区整体上受到正南北向的主压应力,但在喀什和乌恰－乌仁一带存在着较大的剪应力。伽师地区每年相对于北天山（哈萨克斯坦）的运动速度为１９ｍｍ,整个南天山地区发生中强地震的可能性将长期存在。     

盐度对六株硅藻生长及脂肪酸组成的影响

在温度为22±1℃,盐度为18‰、28‰和38‰的条件下,用F/2培养基对青岛海洋大学微藻种质库保存的6株硅藻(纤细角毛藻Chaetoceros gracilis B13; 筒柱藻Cylindrotheca fusiformis B211;三角褐指藻 Phaeodactylum tricomutum B114, B118,B221;新月菱形藻 Nitzschia closterium B222) 进行培养,在指数生长期末期进行收获,测定了6株硅藻的生长及脂肪酸组成.实验结果表明: 盐度对六株硅藻的生长及脂肪酸组成均有影响,但作用结果因种而异.B13的相对生长率随着盐度的增加而增加;B114和B222的相对生长率随着盐度的增加而降低.B13的干重随着盐度的增加而增加,在盐度为38‰时达到最大值(0.21);B118、B114、B221 和B222的干重均在盐度为28‰时达到最大值;盐度对B211的干重影响不明显(0.35～0.36).六株硅藻的主要脂肪酸为16:0、16:1(n-7)和20:5(n-3),B211还含有较多的20:4n-6(5.6～7.4‰),B13含有较多的14:0 (20.O～30.9%).B211、B221和B222的饱和脂肪酸总合随着盐度的增加而降低,在盐度为18‰时达到最大值(占总脂肪酸的百分比分别为41.7%、37.6%和31.7%).而B13、B118和B114的饱和脂肪酸总合在盐度为28‰时含量最高(分别为48.1%、31.0%和33.0%).B118、B114、B221和B222的单不饱和脂肪酸总合随着盐度的增加而增加,而B13和B211单不饱和脂肪酸总合随着盐度的增加而降低.B13、B118、B114和B222的多不饱和脂肪酸总合在18‰时含量最高(分别为31.3%、23.4%、19.6%和18.6%).B211和B221的多不饱和脂肪酸总合在28‰时含量最高(分别为25.1%和16.3%).     

GCM-simulated hydrology in the Arctic duringn the past 21,000 years

The Paleoclimates from Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE) project has chosen to conduct high resolution data-model comparisons for the Arctic region at 21 and 10 (calendar) ka BP. The model simulations for 21, 10, and 0 ka BP were conducted with the GENESIS 2.0 GCM. The 10 ka BP simulation was coupled to the EVE vegetation model. The primary boundary conditions differing from present at 21 ka BP were the northern hemisphere ice sheets and lower CO2, and at 10 ka BP were the orbital insolation and smaller northern hemisphere ice sheets. The purpose of this article is to discuss the hydrological consequences of these simulations.At the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP) the large ice sheets over North America and Eurasia and the lower CO2 levels produced a colder climate than present, with less precipitation throughout the Arctic, except where circulation was altered by the ice sheets. At 10 ka BP greater summer insolation resulted in a warmer and wetter Beringia, but conditions remained cold and dry in the north Atlantic sector, in the vicinity of the remnant ice sheets. Less winter insolation at 10 ka BP resulted in colder and drier conditions throughout the Arctic. Precipitation - evaporation generally correlated with precipitation except where changes in the surface type (ice sheets, vegetation at 10 ka BP, or sea level at 21 ka BP) caused large changes in the evaporation rate. The primary hydrological differences (from present) at 21 and 10 ka BP correlated with the temperature differences, which were a direct result of the large-scale boundary condition changes.