Wetter or colder during the Last Glacial Maximum? Revisiting the pluvial lake question in southwestern North America

Well-preserved shorelines in Estancia basin and a relatively simple hydrologic setting have prompted several inquiries into the basin's hydrologic balance for the purpose of estimating regional precipitation during the late Pleistocene. Estimates have ranged from 86% to 150% of modern, the disparity largely the result of assumptions about past temperatures. In this study, we use an array of models for surface-water runoff, groundwater flow, and lake energy balance to examine previously proposed scenarios for late Pleistocene climate. Constraints imposed by geologic evidence of past lake levels indicate that precipitation for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) may have doubled relative to modern values during brief episodes of colder and wetter climate and that annual runoff was as much as 15% of annual precipitation during these episodes.     

Depth Estimation from Gravity Data Using the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) and the Multi Taper Method (MTM)

The depth determination from the gravity data in frequency domain is carried out using the classical fast Fourier transform (FFT) method utilizing scaling properties of ensemble of anomalous source. The problem of calculating power spectrum from the FFT is well described in the literature. Here, the application of other high-resolution methods of power spectrum calculation, such as maximum entropy method (MEM) and multi-taper method (MTM) are explored to estimate depth to anomalous sources. At the outset, the FFT, the MEM and the MTM are tested on synthetic gravity data, generated for different types of synthetic models and then all these methods are applied to the field gravity data of the Bengal basin. The MTM with scaling is found to be superior for providing the detailed subsurface information rather than the MEM and the FFT methods in the case of synthetic as well as field examples.     

Phosphate sorption desorption characteristics of some ferruginous soils of tropical region in Eastern India

Phosphate sorption and desorption experiments were conducted with four ferruginous soils (alfisols) of Eastern India, in view of the low native phosphate concentrations in tropical Indian soils. From the P-isotherm curve, standard P requirement (SPR) of the soils was determined. Phosphate sorption data were fitted to both Langmuir and Freundlich equations and mean sorption maximum values obtained for the different soil series were in the decreasing order as Matimahal > Anandapur > Mrigindih > Kashipur. The fraction of added P sorbed followed the same trend as SPR, P sorption maximum (P_max), phosphate affinity constant (K), maximum phosphate buffering capacity (MPBC), Freundlich constant K′ and phosphate desorption values. Phosphate sorption maximum was significantly correlated with MPBC, Freundlich 1/n, SPR, clay and different forms of Fe and Al. The value of K (bonding energy) was significantly correlated with MPBC, Freundlich K′ and pyrophosphate extractable Fe and Al. The MPBC was significantly correlated with Freundlich K′, Freundlich constant 1/n, clay, oxalate and dithionite extractable, amorphous and crystalline form of Fe and Al. Freundlich K′ was significantly correlated with Freundlich 1/n, pH_water, clay, dithionite extractable and crystalline form of Fe and Al. The results suggested that the soils having higher amount of extractable and reactive Fe and Al shared higher P sorbtion capacity and such soils may need higher levels of P application     

The use of scale recursive estimation for short term quantitative precipitation forecast

Scale recursive estimation (SRE) is adopted for short term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The precipitation field is modelled using a lognormal random cascade, well suited to properly represent the scaling properties of rainfall fields. To estimate the random cascade parameters, scale recursive maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is carried out by the iterative expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. To illustrate the potentiality of the SRE, forecast of a synthetically generated rainfall time series is shown. Adaptive estimation of the process parameters is carried out and precipitation forecasts are issued. The forecasts from the SRE are compared with those from standard ARMA models, showing a good performance. The SRE is then adopted for forecasting of an observed half hourly precipitation series for a two day storm event in northern Italy. The SRE provides good performance and it can therefore be adopted as a tool for short term QPF.     

Identification of critical ground motions for seismic performance assessment of structures

A method is established to identify critical earthquake ground motions that are to be used in physical testing or subsequent advanced computational studies to enable seismic performance to be assessed. The ground motion identification procedure consists of: choosing a suitable suite of ground motions and an appropriate intensity measure; selecting a computational tool and modelling the structure accordingly; performing Incremental Dynamic Analysis on a non‐linear model of the structure; interpreting these results into 50th (median) and 90th percentile performance bounds; and identifying the critical ground motions that are close to these defining probabilistic curves at ground motion intensities corresponding to the design basis earthquake and the maximum considered earthquake. An illustrative example of the procedure is given for a reinforced concrete highway bridge pier designed to New Zealand specifications. Pseudodynamic tests and finite element based time history analyses are performed on the pier using three earthquake ground motions identified as: (i) a Design Basis Earthquake (10% probability in 50 years) with 90 percent confidence of non‐exceedance; (ii) a Maximum Considered Event (2% probability in 50 years) representing a median response; and (iii) a Maximum Considered Event representing 90 percent confidence of non‐exceedance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

方差分量的极大验后估计

由概括函数模型出发,导出了适应于所有平差模型的方差分量的极大验后估计,这种估计实际上是先验方差与样本方差的凸组合。文中还给出了一个简单的数例,说明这种方法的可行性。     

Theoretical relationship between SSA and MESA with both application

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中国近半个世纪最高气温变化特征

本文根据中国164个站1951－1995年极端气温资料分析了中国各地区平均最高气温45年来的多年变化特征,指出中国北方趋势变化并不明显,80年代后期有明显上升,西南地区80年代后期急剧下降,长江流域以南6O年代降温后变化不大,青藏高原变化较小。冬季的多年变化也各不相同,有区域性差异。EOF分析表明中国各地大多数年份有相似变化趋势,也有一些年份长江流域以南与其它各地变化相反。     

江苏及邻区中强震的灰色马尔柯夫模型

为了探索新的地震灾变预测途径，探讨了集不同手段之长所构筑的一种新模式，其方法是在灰色模型（ＧＭ（１，１））的基础上划分多个与预测值平行的状态区间，考察下一步状态的转移概率，形成灰色马尔柯预测模型，将震级和时间等作为预测要素，通过模型给出了其变化的灰区间和是了大可能值，实例表明，由于灰色预测和马尔柯夫转换概率矩阵两者互补优势，形成的新模型优化了预测结果，作为新方法，灰色马尔柯夫模型值得深入研究。     

应用灰色聚类法预测长江三峡工程水库诱发地震的最大震级

根据世界上３０８座水库资料，用灰色聚类法研究了长江三峡工程水主加诱发地震的最大震级。结果表明，在坝址花岗体内诱发地震的震级不会高于４．０级，在庙河一香溪段，香溪－巴东主加段诱发地震的最大震级不会高于５．０级。