回归—马尔可夫链联合预测地震

本文将回归预测和马尔可夫链预测有机地结合起来,解决了单独使用回归预测时,理论值和实际值偏差较大的问题,提高了地震时间预测的精度。     

Yield and overflow from a finite stochastic reservoir

The paper discusses the overflow (spillage) and yield rates and the total overflow and total yield over a specified time from a finite discrete stochastic reservoir, in which the yieldY _t during the working interval (t,t+1) is a function of the storageZ _t at timet, the inflow sequence {X _t } being IID.The distribution vector of the spillage rate at timet is a telescoped version of the distribution of a certain Markovian variable whose transition matrix is derived. Formulae are given for the distribution of the total spillageW _h given suitable initial conditions, forh=1,2,3; and a simple expression derived forE(W _h ).The distribution of the yield rateY _t is a trivial modification of the storage distribution. As for the total yieldR _t =Y ₁+...+Y _t , it is shown that the bivariate sequence {R _t ,Z _t } is first-order Markovian, whereZ _t is the storage at timet. The transition matrix of this process is obtained and the method of evaluating the marginal distribution of the total yieldR _t is exemplified.     

A multiple distribution Markovian model for annual hydrologic time series

Nonlinear serial dependence and skewness of annual hydrologic time series {X _t } have been challenging the classical theory of Gaussian stochastic processes, particularly if the study of extremes (dry or wet years) is required as it is often the case. In this paper, a new and general model is proposed assuming that the geophysical system which is responsible forX _t can take different states and that this state process is modeled by a Markov chain. At each time,X _t is generated from a statistical distribution which depends on the state that has occurred. This model can preserve non-linear structures of serial dependence and it can produce a skewed marginal distribution ofX _t without any transformation. A successful application of this model to the study of annual rainfall at Fortaleza (Northeast of Brazil) is also presented.     

逆转录聚合酶链式反应中dsRNA模板的快速制备

应用ＲＴ－ＰＣＲ技术检测草鱼出血病病毒。建立了一种快速、简易而可靠的ｄｓＲＮＡ模板的制备方法。应用该方法制备模板进行ＲＴ－ＰＣＲ扩增，可以有效地检测出病鱼组织及病毒感染的培养细胞裂解液中的草鱼出血病病毒，且全过程只需３～４ｈ，大大缩短了检测时间     

Bayesian inference for long-term prediction of significant wave height

This paper considers the problem of estimating long-term predictions of significant wave-height. A method which combines Bayesian methodology and extreme value techniques is adopted. Inferences are based on the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm implemented in an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme. The method is applied to obtain return values of extreme values of significant wave height collected on the northern North Sea. The results are compared with those obtained by Guedes Soares and Scotto [Guedes Soares, C. and Scotto, M.G., 2004. Application of the r-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave heights. Coastal Engineering, 51, 387–394].     

Three-dimensional Motion of Multichain-Buoy Mooring System in shallow Water and Survival Conditions

An engineering numerical model for three-dimensional motion of multichain-buoy mooringsystem in shallow water and survival condition is given in this paper.Shooting-aim method is employedfor solving the dynamic equations of chain system in order to match the computation of buoy motion.Theresponses of buoy and chain have been computed for different wind-wave-current directions and differentrigidity of chain.The results show that the present numerical model is reasonable.     

油藏储层中不同赋存状态烃类地球化学特征:Ⅱ长链烷基苯--以鄂尔多斯盆地三叠系延长组为例

对鄂尔多斯盆地西峰油田三叠系延长组六个油砂样品中游离烃、封闭烃、束缚烃的饱和烃馏分进行了GC-MS分析。样品中长链烷基苯在C₁₆-C₂₀范围内具有较明显的偶碳优势。研究表明:长链烷基苯的演化受成熟度的影响,表现为随着成熟度的增加,长链正构烷基苯的碳数分布前移,长链烷基苯异构体相对丰度减小;而正构烷基苯相对丰度有增加的趋势。长链烷基苯主要是细菌、藻类和高等植物类脂化合物中脂肪酸在粘土矿物催化下发生环化脱羧再芳构化或单环芳烃与脂肪酸烷基化反应形成的产物。已形成的长直链烷基苯通过β分裂、单分子均裂形成苯甲基、烯烃,苯甲基通过氢转移到长链烷基苯的α碳上,烯烃再与α碳结合形成带支链的烷基苯。长链烷基苯的检出进一步验证了当时沉积物处于较强还原环境。长链烷基苯在不同赋存状态烃的分布特征,可以应用于油气聚集时间和成藏差异的研究。     

方法—目的链理论在喀斯特旅游产品开发中的运用——以兴文石海洞乡地质公园为例

喀斯特旅游是一种传统的大众观光旅游项目,由于喀斯特旅游产品共性大,个性小,替代性强等特征,导致目前的喀斯特旅游开发难度较大。本文结合四川兴文石海洞乡地质公园旅游开发实例,打破传统喀斯特资源导向型旅游产品开发模式,运用消费者行为学中的方法— 目的链理论,从旅游消费者的角度出发, 分析旅游者与旅游产品的感知关系,提出“游客导向型”喀斯特旅游产品开发建议。      

中国天气发生器的降水模拟

天气发生器是气候影响评价研究的重要工具,在气候变化、地球生态系统及极端气候事件发生的风险分析等方面有着广泛的应用。为了建立一个适用于中国广大地区的天气发生器,需要对各种模拟模型及其参数的估计进行深入的研究。其中降水的模拟及其参数的估计是关键,因为气温、辐射等其他气候要素的模拟依赖于降水的发生。本文重点介绍了常用的随机降水模拟模型：两状态一阶马尔科夫链和两参数GAMMA分布。根据中国672个气象站点1961~2000年的逐日降水资料,计算了降水转移概率P (WD)、P (WW) 及GAMMA分布参数ALPHA和BETA,并分析了4个参数在中国各地的空间分布特征与不同地区各参数的季节分布特征。最后根据各地不同月份计算的四个降水模拟参数对中国各地的逐日降水进行模拟,并利用1971~2000年的实测数据对30年模拟结果在统计意义上进行了检验,模拟结果较好。     

灰色马尔可夫链在深基坑沉降预测中的应用

针对深基坑在开挖后的施工过程中,由于多种因素引起的沉降变形具有随机性的特点,采用灰色马尔可夫链模型对上海市某深基坑的沉降进行了成功预测。结果表明,利用灰色马尔可夫链对深基坑的沉降变形进行预测是可行的。