基于SBAS- InSAR技术的西藏雄巴古滑坡变形特征

大型古滑坡及其强变形和复活灾害日益频发,已造成重大灾害事件和严重损失.古滑坡的发育、变形影响因素多、机理复杂和识别难度大,本文采用SBAS-InSAR技术,结合遥感解译,获取了金沙江西岸雄巴村古滑坡2017年10月至2020年6月间的地表变形特征.研究表明,雄巴古滑坡方量巨大,可达2.6×108～6×108 m3,根据InSAR形变监测结果,滑坡前缘发育H1和H2等2个大型强变形区,变形级别分为4级:极强变形区(-132.1 mm/a≤VLOS＜-58.5 mm/a)、强变形区(-58.5 mm/a≤VLOS＜-20.3 mm/a)、中等变形区(-20.3 mm/a≤VLOS＜l.8 mm/a)和弱变形区(1.8 mm/a≤VLOS＜55.4 mm/a);其中H1变形区,最大累计变形量达203.8 mm,H2变形区变形量达302.1 mm.受金沙江河流侵蚀,特别是上游75 km的2018年10月和11月白格2次滑坡-堵江-溃坝-泥石流/洪水灾害链对雄巴古滑坡坡脚的侵蚀,加剧了雄巴古滑坡的变形,其中H1变形区的蠕滑速率是白格滑坡灾害链发生前的14～16倍,灾害链引起H2区发生变形,雄巴古滑坡整体呈现牵引式复活状态.基于SBAS-InSAR的形变监测结果得到了野外的验证,目前H1变形区前缘出现局部垮塌,滑体中横向和竖向裂缝发育,局部呈现拉张状态.雄巴古滑坡目前呈现持续变形中,部分地段为加速变形,雄巴古滑坡发生大规模复活将导致堰塞金沙江-溃坝-泥石流灾害链,应加强雄巴古滑坡的空—天—地一体化监测预警,为该区正在规划建设的重大工程和流域性地质安全风险提供技术支撑和科学依据.     

环流分解及其在沉积地层旋回分析中的应用

本文应用马尔柯夫链进行地层序列分析。当一个地层序列形成一个具有马尔柯夫性质和极限概率分布的马尔柯夫链时,它的转移概率矩阵可分解为细致平衡部分和环流部分。根据环流矩阵可确定该序列中的主要沉积旋回趋势,为地层序列分析提供重要依据。本文给出了两个研究实例。     

南海长链烯酮化合物的检测及U37^k值的应用

首次系统地在南海大面积站位中检测出长链烯酮化合物。通过长链烯酮指标Ｕ３７ｋ与实测表层海水温度（ＳＳＴ）的对比研究,发现海洋沉积物样品在室温下长期（１７ａ）密封保存,长链烯酮指标Ｕ３７ｋ值无明显变化。Ｕ３７ｋ值在南海海区指示的表层海水温度与季节有关,主要反映秋、冬两季,即１０月至次年３月间的ＳＳＴ。     

新冠肺炎疫情对经济全球化的影响分析

新冠肺炎疫情是第二次世界大战以来世界面临的最大危机,给世界带来巨大的冲击,包括人们的心理和生活、经济增长与就业、国家治理及世界治理等。这些影响使很多学者、评论家、大众、企业家乃至政府官员产生了非常悲观的情绪,舆论中不乏经济全球化将终结、全球供应链将大规模调整、世界治理格局将彻底改变等言论。本文通过建立“全球化的三角结构”剖析了经济全球化的动力机制,并结合疫情对世界的主要影响,试图揭示后疫情时代经济全球化的走势。我们认为,资本的“空间出路”、技术的“时空压缩”和国家的开放程度是驱动经济全球化的三个基本力量,这三者的变化及其相互作用结果影响着全球化进程。从动力机制看,全球化是一个没有终点且不断变化的历史过程,它不会倒退,而是波动。过去半个世纪以来,世界各国已经被全球化紧密地联系在一起,相互脱钩的代价极其昂贵,没有国家会选择完全脱钩。所谓的逆全球化现象,是全球化发展过程中世界格局变化及各国应对策略调整的结果。新冠肺炎疫情并不能影响全球化的资本和技术驱动力,但是可能影响国家的开放程度。如果疫情持续时间不是很长,经济全球化将很快会回归原有的发展轨迹,继续进行调整。各国也将继续围绕经济全球化进行斗争、妥协、再斗争,直至形成一个相对稳定的状态。因此,经济全球化可能因为应对疫情而踩下急刹车,甚至暂退半步,但很快将继续前行,向着“包容性全球化”的方向发展。     

平原地区水文地质结构条件模拟及其应用:以华北平原为例

为了分析储水介质非均质性问题,采用了基于马尔柯夫地层序列分析的分布条件模拟方法,用转移概率矩阵的谱分析函数替代传统地质统计学中的变差函数,利用协同指示克里格方法和条件模拟建立结构模型。以华北平原为例,论述了模拟结构建立过程及其在水流模型中的应用。通过对模拟结果与实测数据的分析比较,认为模拟结果能够客观反映整个研究区的沉积规律,以岩性赋水文地质参数的方法更加客观准确地解决储水介质非均质性问题。分析了该方法的优、缺点,并提出了该方法深入研究的方向与思路。     

Smoothing and Change Point Detection for Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray detectors are used to measure the natural radioactivity of rocks. For a number of boreholes drilled at a site the gamma ray detector is lowered into each borehole and counts of gamma ray emissions at different depths are recorded as the instrument is gradually raised to ground level. The profile of gamma counts can be informative about the geology at each location. The raw count data are highly variable, and in this paper we describe the use of adaptive smoothing techniques and change point models in order to identify changes in the geology based on the gamma logs. We formulate all our models for the data in the framework of the class of generalized linear models, and describe computational methods for Bayesian inference and model selection for generalized linear models that improve on existing techniques. Application is made to gamma ray data from the Castelreagh Waste Management Centre which served as a hazardous waste disposal facility for the Sydney region between March 1974 and August 1998. Understanding the geological structure of this site is important for further modelling the transport of pollutants beneath the waste disposal area.     

基于Markov chain理论的科技成果转化的市场预测

科技成果成功转化的主要标志是其产品的市场畅销度。产品的畅销度由于受各种内外部不确定因素影响，具有随机不确定性。基于这种随机不确定性，运用Markov chain对其产品进行市场预测，并通过实证分析说明其有效性，为科技成果的转化提供具体可行的定量依据。     

马尔科夫链分析在东海陆架盆地花港组沉积微相分析中的应用

通过对东海陆架盆地某凹陷取心井岩心仔细观察和描述,采用双属性划分标准,在研究区花港组岩心中识别出了28种岩石相类型.其中砾岩相5种,砂岩相15种,细粒岩相8种.针对22口取心井岩心详细划分沉积微相和岩石相,共取得2227个岩石相数据.针对研究区发育的湖泊、三角洲、河流3种沉积体系,运用马尔科夫链分析不同沉积微相类型中岩石相沉积序列模式,建立了不同沉积微相类型可能的岩石相组合规律及岩石相定量组合概率,为后期研究相同或相似类型的沉积相提供地质知识库,并为沉积相的识别提供定量的基础.     

Bayesian Spatial Modelling of Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray logging is a method routinely employed by geophysicists and environmental engineers in site geology evaluations. Modelling of gamma ray data from individual boreholes assists in the local identification of major lithological changes; modelling these data from a network of boreholes assists with lithological mapping and spatial stratigraphic correlation. In this paper we employ Bayesian spatial partition models to analyse gamma ray data spatially. In particular, a spatial partition is defined via a Voronoi tessellation and the mean intensity is assumed constant in each cell of the partition. The number of vertices generating the tessellation as well as the locations of vertices are assumed unknown, and uncertainty about these quantities is described via a hierarchical prior distribution. We describe the advantages of the spatial partition modelling approach in the context of smoothing gamma ray count data and describe an implementation that may be extended to the fitting of a more general model than a constant mean within each cell of the partition. As an illustration of the methodology we consider a data set collected from a network of eight boreholes, which is part of a geophysical study to assist in mapping the lithology of a site. Gamma ray logs are linked with geological information from cores and the spatial analysis of log data assists with predicting the lithology at unsampled locations.     

Petrochemical constraints on the models of Cretaceous-Eocene tectonic evolution of the Eastern Pontic chain (Turkey)

Sixteen selected samples from the Upper Cretaceous volcanic belt of the Eastern Pontids have been analysed for major elements, Rb, Sr and Zr. On the basis of the K₂O versus SiO₂ distribution, two groups of rocks have been distinguished, one with calc-alkaline affinity and a second group with shoshonitic character. The calc-alkaline rocks have porphyritic texture with clinopyroxene, plagioclase and orthopyroxene as phenocryst and in the groundmass. The orthopyroxene is lacking in the shoshonites where plagioclase, clinopyroxene and, in the more evolved terms, amphibole and biotite are the main phenocryst minerals. The shoshonitic rocks have higher $\text{K}{}_2\text{O}\text{Na}{}_2\text{O}$ ratio, K₂O, P₂O₅ and Rb, contents with respect to the calc-alkaline samples. The TiO₂ content is invariably low, never exceeding approximately 1%. The occurrence of volcanic rocks ranging in composition from calc-alkaline to shoshonitic in the Upper Cretaceous volcanic belt of the Eastern Pontids suggests that the Upper Cretaceous volcanic cycle reached its mature stage before the onset of the Eocene calc-alkaline volcanism which is believed to be neither genetically nor tectonically related with the Upper Cretaceous volcanism.