Planning and development regulation amid rapid urban growth: Explaining divergent trajectories in Africa

Why are urban plans, land use regulations and construction codes implemented effectively in some African states but not others? This constitutes an increasingly urgent development concern with major implications for the environment and the urban poor. Rather than being explained by economic factors, bureaucratic capacity or the nature of the urban policies and regulations in place, this paper argues that divergent outcomes are largely rooted in differing political bargaining environments. Comparing Uganda and Rwanda, it presents an empirical study that analyses contrasting planning and regulation trajectories in contexts of similarly low levels of socioeconomic development and soaring rates of urban growth. It argues that the divergent outcomes can be explained in relation to the political resources and incentives confronted by governing elites, which in Rwanda impel state actors to implement plans and regulations while in Uganda incentivize overriding them in the interests of political or economic gain. In highlighting political bargaining contexts and how these change over time, the paper illustrates the critical importance of historically informed city-level political economy analysis for understanding divergent urban development outcomes.     

Actually achieving marine sustainability demands a radical re-think in approach, not 'more of the same'

The UK is committed to meeting a series of ‘high-level marine objectives’ which are required to satisfy national obligations and to meet international commitments for the marine environment. There are more than 16 such international high-level policy driven obligations and commitments, together with more than 18 European and more than 12 of national origin. In the UK, there is an assumption that the current and planned monitoring will provide evidence to demonstrate achievement against these high-level objectives.     

Charting the emergence of ‘global water initiatives’ in world water governance

Over the last century, the aperture of water governance has widened beyond local and regional schemes to include a growing number of dynamic organizations and events with a “global” scope. Until recently, little had been written about the historical development of global water governance, institutional connectivity within the field, or key organizational successes and failures as perceived by water experts. This paper provides water scientists, managers, policymakers, and those with an interest in international water issues with an overview of global initiatives. It charts the emergence of a set of institutions and events, referred to as “global water initiatives,” or GWIs, using a survey of water experts and other research. Institutional diversity among GWIs is described by defining four distinct types of initiatives and specific differences in scope and programmatic orientation. This overview also entails the historical paradigms of water management, evaluation of the results of the growth and proliferation of numerous new GWIs in recent decades, and some recommendations for supporting and sustaining GWI efforts in order to foster and improve multilevel water management in the future.     

Local Agenda 21 and Barriers to Sustainability at the Local Government Level in Victoria,Australia

At the 1992 Rio 'Earth Summit', Australia joined other nations in committing to processes leading to the formulation of 'Local Agenda 21s' (LA21s) by 1996. Subsequently, in the latter year, Whittaker carried out a national survey of local government authorities to evaluate what progress had been made. Whittaker's conclusion was that progress in Australia had been slow, but ten 'leading-edge' Victorian councils were identified through a self-reporting process. In this paper we discuss the concept of LA21, analyse in closer detail the 'progress' that has been made in the ten Victorian councils, and discuss some of the broader forces that, we argue, have made LA21 formulation increasingly difficult, particularly in the state of Victoria in the recent past.     

制度变迁与房地产业发展-匈牙利的经验和启示

东欧前社会主义国家匈牙利,经过数年市场化改革和体制转型,实现了国内经济的快速增长和国民生活的不断改善。本文基于匈牙利房地产业的发展背景和现状,探讨并分析了匈牙利政府在国内房地产业相关发展政策及管理举措方面可供借鉴的若干经验和启示。     

夏季厄尔尼诺-Modoki和东部型ENSO海表温度异常分布型特征及其与海洋性大陆区域气候异常的联系

2007年,Ashok等揭示了赤道太平洋区域存在一种三极型分布海表温度异常并称之为厄尔尼诺-Modoki,同时定义了相应的海表温度异常指数EMI（记为I_EM）。在此基础上,利用英国哈得来中心逐月海表温度资料、美国NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析数据集、美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）逐月降水资料（CMAP）,通过在太平洋海表温度异常中扣除厄尔尼诺-Modoki信号后,在Nino1+2区域上定义了东太平洋型海表温度异常指数EPNI（I_EPN）。据此,由I_EPN和I_EM可构成描述热带太平洋海表温度异常变化的一对指数。分析了两个指数相应的海气状态及对海洋性大陆区域气候异常的影响。结果表明,厄尔尼诺-Modoki和东太平洋型海表温度异常及其影响存在显著差异。在北半球夏季,当I_EM处于正位相时,热带太平洋海表温度异常呈现“负-正-负”的结构,海洋性大陆大部分区域海表温度异常为负,此时对流层低层太平洋地区辐合,海洋性大陆地区辐散,对流层高层太平洋地区辐散,海洋性大陆地区辐合。对应于辐合辐散中心,存在着自赤道中太平洋分别向赤道东太平洋和海洋性大陆中东部地区的异常垂直环流圈,同时也存在自海洋性大陆西部向印度洋西部的垂直环流。大气在海洋性大陆区域北部加热,南部冷却;在太平洋地区西部加热而东部冷却;在海洋性大陆区域10°N以南降水偏少,而10°N以北降水偏多。当I_EPN处于正位相时,热带太平洋海表温度异常呈现“西负东正”分布型,海洋性大陆区域海表温度异常呈现“西正东负”分布,对流层低层海洋性大陆地区辐散中心范围偏大、位置偏东、强度偏强,太平洋地区辐合中心范围偏小、位置偏东,热带环流异常在垂直方向上呈斜压结构,海洋性大陆区域北部大气加热而南部冷却,太平洋地区大气均呈加热正异常,海洋性大陆大部分区域降水均偏少,赤道太平洋降水偏多。以上这些结果有利于深刻理解热带太平洋海表温度异常的特征及其对海洋性大陆区域气候的影响。      

From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy

Abstract

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation has recently gained importance, yet adaptation is much less developed than mitigation as a policy response. Adaptation research has been used to help answer to related but distinct questions. (1) To what extent can adaptation reduce impacts of climate change? (2) What adaptation policies are needed, and how can they best be developed, applied and funded? For the first question, the emphasis is on the aggregate value of adaptation so that this may be used to estimate net impacts. An important purpose is to compare net impacts with the costs of mitigation. In the second question, the emphasis is on the design and prioritisation of adaptation policies and measures. While both types of research are conducted in a policy context, they differ in their character, application, and purpose. The impacts/mitigation research is orientated towards the physical and biological science of impacts and adaptation, while research on the ways and means of adaptation is focussed on the social and economic determinants of vulnerability in a development context. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the national adaptation studies carried under the UNFCCC are broadening the paradigm, from the impacts/mitigation to vulnerability/adaptation. For this to occur, new policy research is needed. While the broad new directions of both research and policy can now be discerned, there remain a number of outstanding issues to be considered.     

大连“11．28”翻船事故风浪分析

利用自动气象站资料、常规气象观测资料、NCEP全球再分析资料及WAVEWATCH III模式预报资等料对2012年11月28日大连翻船事故的大风大浪实况、事故成因及演变情况进行分析。结果表明：大连此次翻船事故高空的强冷空气促使冷涡加强,西部大陆高压和蒙古气旋不断加强东移,东南部海上高压稳定少动,蒙古气旋底前部与海上高压顶后部梯度加大,梯度密集区正好位于渤海海峡,造成黄海和渤海偏西大风;低层辐散和中层辐合的垂直结构加强了低层以下的上下扰动,构成南北垂直环流,中层以下动力强迫下沉气流将北侧中层的动量下传至辽东半岛南部地面及黄海、渤海海面,使其不断获得动能,有利于偏西大风的加强;西南向岸大风有利于浪高增长,偏西大风及与其同时增长的大浪是大连地区此次翻船事故的主要原因。     

福建沿海“海丝”文化旅游资源空间结构与开发潜力分析

应用定量统计和GIS分析方法研究福建沿海“海丝”文化旅游资源的类型结构、空间结构特征及资源群开发潜力,为“海丝”文化旅游资源的保护和旅游目的地开发提供决策依据。结果表明：（1）福建沿海“海丝”文化旅游资源分为海上交通、商业贸易、文化融合和宗教文化4大类及12个亚类;（2）从整体空间结构看,资源呈集聚型分布,形成“一带四区”格局,即宁德-福州-莆田-泉州-厦门-漳州的沿海带状区域和以泉州为中心的极核区、以漳州和福州为中心的两个高密度区、以莆田为中心的次级密度区;（3）从各类型资源空间分布特征看,海上交通类资源在沿海港口处高度聚集,商业贸易类资源在福州和泉州的城区及内陆山区河流两岸聚集,文化融合类资源高度聚集在泉州、漳州和福州,宗教文化类资源以泉州为中心在沿海广泛分布;（4）从资源群开发潜力看,泉州为开发潜力最大城市;宗教文化类资源群为最具开发潜力的资源类型。基于以上研究结果,提出构建以“点-轴-网”为格局的福建“海丝”文化旅游资源空间开发格局设想。     

Socioeconomics effects on global hotspots of common debris items on land and the seafloor

Pollution of coastal environments by anthropogenic debris is a global problem that is increasingly in the public eye. We evaluated the influence of socioeconomic and geographic factors on common debris items at a global scale. We compared debris density and socioeconomic drivers of the ten most common items reported on land and the seafloor, analyzing data from 22,508 land-based and 7,290 seafloor clean-ups and surveys across 116 and 118 countries, respectively. We found debris hotspots for different items span numerous countries across all continents. This demonstrates that the debris problem is global and heterogeneous, pointing to the transboundary nature of the issue and necessitating sub-national approaches to implementing effective solutions. Food and beverage packaging items, predominantly made from single-use plastics, accounted for much of the debris. Hotspots of individual debris items were differentially driven by socioeconomic factors. In general, total debris counts increased with the value of infrastructure, and decreased with national wealth. Highly polluted sites occurred in high-infrastructure, low-wealth locations such as Athens, Greece; Tunis, Tunisia and Lima, Peru. Based on these findings, we identify specific opportunities for policy makers and citizens alike to focus efforts aimed at reducing debris entering the environment.