中国沿海地区灾害发生的环境和社会经济背景*

本文研究了中国沿海地区灾害发生的自然环境背景,特别讨论了地质构造因素、气候因素和地貌因素对灾害的影响.制定了孕灾环境区划,全区按地貌类型划分为北部平原和南部低山丘陵孕灾区以及10个易灾亚区.分析了灾害发生的社会经济背景,区域承灾能力和人类活动对灾害的影响.最后根据地球系统各圈层相互作用及外部强迫因子对灾害发生的影响,讨论了一般灾害的发生和发展规律.     

基于地貌单元的小区域地质灾害易发性分区方法研究

以汶川县城周边区域为研究区,分别以栅格单元与地貌单元作为单位评价单元,以信息量法与逻辑回归法两种评价模型对研究区进行地质灾害易发性评价分区。根据对评价结果的比较分析,在小区域范围内,基于地貌单元的区域易发性分区不仅仅能够更好地体现出区域内局部综合特性,而且评价分区结果与地质灾害实际分布情况更加吻合,分级层次更加明显,数学模型的适用效率很好。由此可见,在小范围区域内,基于地貌单元的地质灾害易发性评价分区具有良好的适用性与可塑性,在大比例尺地质灾害易发性和危险性制图中是一个有益的尝试与启发。     

Emerging customs: Small-scale fishing practices in Aceh,Indonesia

Off the western coast of Sumatra among the islands of Pulau Banyak, fishing is the primary occupation for the men of Haloban. They are self-described “traditional” fishers, using low-tech gear and small boats to catch fish, octopus, lobster, and other sealife in the nearby coral reefs and mangroves. Women also regularly venture out into the deep mud of the mangroves to collect clams. Their efforts to extract livelihoods and subsistence from the reefs take place in an open-access commons with few formal institutions or enforcement mechanisms to regulate resource use. While explicit regulations and customary limitations on fishing in the coral reef commons are lacking, Haloban fishers improvise some common etiquette and practices that are adaptable to the shifting context.This case study presents Haloban fishers' use of the commons as situated practices, unarticulated and embedded within a complex social–ecological system. These practices reflect fishers' understanding of, and relationship with, their environment, and may represent a nascent form of local “rules-in-use”, informing behavior without direct social mechanisms for enforcement. This paper presents research collected using ethnographic methods, including participant observation at sea. As NGOs and government agencies work to craft management plans that share use of the reefs with tourism and conservation, a better understanding of actual resource use and fishing practice may inform more nuanced, adaptable, and truly “local” community-based management.     

Holocene-emerged notches and tectonic uplift along the Jalisco coast, Southwest Mexico

This paper presents the preliminary results from a study of Holocene-emerged shorelines, marine notches, and their tectonic implications along the Jalisco coast. The Pacific coast of Jalisco, SW Mexico, is an active tectonic margin. This coast has been the site of two of the largest earthquakes to occur in Mexico this century: the 1932 (Mw 8.2) Jalisco earthquake and the 1995 (Mw 8.0) Colima earthquake. Measurement and preliminary radiocarbon dating of emergent paleoshorelines along the Jalisco coast provide the first constraints upon the timing for tectonic uplift. Along this coastline, uplifted Holocene marine notches and wave-cut platforms occur at elevations ranging from ca. 1 to 4.5 m amsl. In situ intertidal organisms dated with radiocarbon, the first ever reported for the Jalisco area, provide preliminary results that record tectonic uplift during at least the past 1300 years BP at an average rate of about 3 mm/year. We propose a model in which coseismic subsidence produced by offshore earthquakes is rapidly recovered during the postseismic and interseismic periods. The long-term period is characterized by slow tectonic uplift of the Jalisco coast. We found no evidence of coastal interseismic and long-term subsidence along the Jalisco coast.     

Numerical study of the oxidation process of dimethylsulfide in the marine atmosphere

A box model, involving simple heterogeneous reaction processes associated with the production of non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO ₄ ^2– ) particles, is used to investigate the oxidation processes of dimethylsulfide (DMS or CH₃SCH₃) in the marine atmosphere. The model is applied to chemical reactions in the atmospheric surface mixing layer, at intervals of 15 degrees latitude between 60° N and 60° S. Given that the addition reaction of the hydroxyl radical (OH) to the sulfur atom in the DMS molecule is faster at lower temperature than at higher temperature and that it is the predominant pathway for the production of methanesulfonic acid (MSA or CH₃SO₃H), the results can well explain both the increasing tendency of the molar ratio of MSA to nss-SO ₄ ^2– toward higher latitudes and the uniform distribution with latitude of sulfur dioxide (SO₂). The predicted production rate of MSA increases with increasing latitude due to the elevated rate constant of the addition reaction at lower temperature. Since latitudinal distributions of OH concentration and DMS reaction rate with OH are opposite, a uniform production rate of SO₂ is realized over the globe. The primary sink of DMS in unpolluted air is caused by the reaction with OH. Reaction of DMS with the nitrate radical (NO₃) also reduces DMS concentration but it is less important compared with that of OH. Concentrations of SO₂, MSA, and nss-SO ₄ ^2– are almost independent of NO _x concentration and radiation field. If dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO or CH₃S(O)CH₃) is produced by the addition reaction and further converted to sulfuric acid (H₂SO₄) in an aqueous solution of cloud droplets, the oxidation process of DMSO might be important for the production of aerosol particles containing nss-SO ₄ ^2– at high latitudes.     

Vertical Structure in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer and its Implication for the Inertial Dissipation Method

The structure of the marine atmospheric boundarylayer and the validity ofMonin–Obukhov similarity theory over the seahave been investigated using longterm measurements. Three levels of turbulencemeasurements (at 10 m, 18 mand 26 m) at Östergarnsholm in themiddle of the Baltic Sea have beenanalysed. The results show that turbulentparameters have a strong dependenceon the actual height due to wave influence.The wind profile and thus thenormalised wind gradient are very sensitiveto wave state. The lower part of theboundary layer can be divided into three heightlayers, a wave influenced layerclose to the surface, a transition layer andan undisturbed ordinary surfacelayer; the depth of the layers is determinedby the wave state. This heightstructure can, however, not be found for thenormalised dissipation, which is onlya function of the stability, except duringpronounced swell where the actualheight also has to be accounted for. Theresults have implications for the heightvariation of the turbulent kinetic energy(TKE) budget. Thus, the imbalancebetween production and dissipation willalso vary with height according to thevariation of wave state. This, in turn,will of course have strong implicationsfor the inertial dissipation method, inwhich a parameterisation of the TKEbudget is used.     

湖南两次流域性致洪暴雨异同点分析

利用常规气象资料、水情资料及灾情资料,对发生地点、季节及影响系统相似的2010年7月8-14日和2012年7月11-19日两次湖南省持续性大范围暴雨天气过程进行对比分析,结果表明：（1）两次暴雨过程均具有持续时间长、暴雨频繁且集中、累计雨量大、洪涝严重等特点;（2）东北冷涡加强、副高东退南落,冷、暖空气在湖南交汇,导致连续性暴雨发生;（3）“10.7”暴雨过程冷、暖气流势力相当,雨带呈东西向,稳定少动,致灾性强.而“12.7”暴雨过程冷空气势力较强,雨带呈移动性,虽然致灾范围广,但灾情较前者轻.     

崇左市预警信号发布现状及探讨

统计2008-2013年以来崇左市下辖江州区、扶绥县、天等县、大新县、宁明县、龙州县、凭祥市七县（市、区）,几种常用的气象灾害预警信号发布现状以及实际工作中遇到的问题展开谈论,探讨预警信号发布工作面临的新形势,并提出新形势下预警信号发布工作相应的对策和措施,从而更好的做好＂气象灾害预警信号＂的发布工作,减少气象灾害所带来的损失。     

海洋风暴形成的一种动力学机制

文中从观测统计学、瞬变涡动能量学和 MM5中尺度数值模拟角度 ,研究了海洋风暴 (爆发性气旋 )形成的气候特征及其可能的动力学机制 ,揭示了一幅爆发性发展的物理图像。结果表明 ,在冷季大气特别是日本以东洋面上大气特有的热力气候背景下 ,通过同海洋风暴过程相联系的涡动热通量 vθ的向极地输送 (- vθ· θm>0 ) ,将季节尺度的时间平均有效位能向瞬变涡旋时间尺度的涡动有效位能转换 ,是海洋风暴形成的主要动力机制。在该过程中转换来的具有最大贡献的涡动有效位能 ,连同具有次大贡献的积云加热制造的涡动有效位能(q3 )一起 ,通过暖异常区 (α >0 )暖湿空气上升运动 (-ω >0 )的斜压转换 (-ωα) ,促使涡动动能增长。同时 ,补充的涡动有效位能又加强了暖异常区的暖湿空气上升运动 ,进而产生积云对流活动及其潜热释放的正反馈过程 ,最终导致涡动动能急剧增长和海洋风暴的形成。海-气潜热输送的作用是在风暴形成初期提供后来积云尺度对流活动及潜热释放的水汽潜力。研究还表明 ,海洋风暴主要发生在冷季月份 1 3 0°E以东的中高纬洋面上 ,这种对特定季节和特定海域的依赖性是大气和海洋气候背景的动力 /热力共同作用的结果     

近20年我国气象灾害损失的初步分析

利用1989—2008年的全国自然灾害灾情资料,采用综合集成评价方法计算出气象灾害损失的综合指数,运用聚类分析法对近20年的气象灾害损失进行定级并分析其随时间的变化。结果显示,20年中前10年气象灾害的损失比较大,后10年损失显著减小;气象灾害导致的人口死亡数在近20年中呈明显的下降趋势;1991、1994、1996、1998年为气象灾害的重灾年。