渤、黄、东海冬季海表冷暖水舌的时空变化及机理分析

海表冷暖水舌被广泛应用于定性描述海表水温(SST)的空间分布特征,但缺少定量的表述和研究。本文以海表冷暖水舌轴线的空间位置和温度为指标,用2006—2014年逐年冬季(2月)的遥感SST数据,分析了渤海、黄海和东海冬季的冷暖水舌的空间分布和年际变化,并探讨了其形成机理。结果表明,渤海、黄海和东海冬季存在2条冷水舌和6条暖水舌。水舌位置的EOF前三个模态(73.4%)基本解释了其年际变化,其中空间第一模态呈同相分布,在东海中部及西部的变动幅度最大;空间第二和第三模态主要呈反相分布,分别在九州岛南部及黄海区域变动幅度较大。水舌温度的EOF第一模态(69.6%)呈空间同相分布,变动幅度在渤、黄海较大,在东海南部较小。水舌位置和水舌温度都存在准2~3 a周期的年际变化,但只有水舌位置EOF第二模态通过95%水平的显著性检验。海表相对较均匀的负净热通量(海洋向大气输送热量),使得浅水区SST比深水区下降得快,水深(上混合层深度)是冷暖水舌形成的原因之一;平流热输送的空间差异显著且在冷暖水舌区域中的作用最大,在冷舌区域起到降温作用,在暖舌区域起到增温作用,平流热输送是冷暖水舌形成的主要原因。     

On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice

The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.     

Understanding influences in policy landscapes for sustainable coastal livelihoods

Ensuring sustainability of livelihoods for communities residing in coastal environments of the Global South has gained considerable attention across policy making, practice and research fields. Livelihood enhancement programs commonly strategize around developing people's resilience by diversification of income and subsistence activities, but are criticised for inadequate appreciation of local contexts. This in part results from the application of theoretical approaches in practice which are informed disproportionately by dominant science-based narratives and utilised by actors in higher level political arenas. This leads to the prioritization of objectives that do not necessarily reflect local livelihood conditions. There is an urgent need to address the multiple challenges that limit the possibility for sustainable livelihoods in spatially and temporally dynamic environments. This paper presents an analysis of the policy landscape in which intervention strategies for sustainable coastal livelihoods emerge. It examines how livelihood improvement approaches take shape in the context of conservation, rural development, and regional resource governance. Drawing from analyses of broader regional policies and an extensive literature review, a conceptual framework is presented. It details various influences that can flow up or down multi-scaled governance structures to affect policy and management - from agenda-setting narratives of policy makers to the dynamic and changeable nature of livelihoods. Case studies from the Arafura and Timor Seas region are introduced to illustrate some of these trends. The discussion highlights challenges encountered in the pursuit of sustainability for coastal and marine-based livelihoods, and suggests directions for more effective long term policy, management and strategic interventions.     

黄、渤海污损生物生态特点及研究展望

综合分析了黄、渤海污损生物的种类组成、数量大小、分布状况和季节变化等特点,并与邻近海区污损生物群落进行了比较.分析结果表明,黄、渤海海域所出现的污损生物均为温带种或广温种,污损生物群落结构和数量随季节发生明显变化,夏季种类最多、数量最大,秋、春季次之,冬季则很少有污损生物附着.此外,还从恢复生态学和生态数学模型角度对下一阶段污损生物生态研究重点进行了初步探讨,以期为进一步的污损生物防除工作和海洋生态基础研究提供参考和建议.     

印度尼西亚海与印度尼西亚贯穿流研究概述

概述过去30年间与印度尼西亚海和印度尼西亚贯穿流有关的海洋动力学方面的研究进展。印度尼西亚海处于海洋大陆的中心地带,衔接西太平洋和印度洋的暖池,是影响大气环流的关键海域;而通过印度尼西亚海多个连通海峡从太平洋进入印度洋的贯穿流,对维持全球大洋热盐分布和平衡起着关键的作用,影响着全球大洋环流的结构及长期的气候变化。基于大...     

地块－海槽边缘带成油成气新概念

对准噶尔、塔里木等盆地沉积环境的研究表明,古生代时,中国西北区为海相沉积,沉积盆地的基底是一些离散的古老结晶地块,其上海水侵漫,地块之间为大洋或窄大洋的海槽。地块之间的海槽或地块与海槽过渡的边缘带盆地是油气形成的有利地带。在海槽遭受压缩褶皱而回返的造山过程中,＂地块－海槽＂体系发生转化,形成中新生代＂山系－盆地＂的陆相沉积体系。边缘带的油气源岩系被埋藏在盆地外围的山系之下。但其中形成的部分油气已运移到盆地内的储集层中聚集,形成＂外生内储＂的油气藏。在这种类型的盆地中,存在陆相生油和海相生油、＂内生内储＂和＂外生内储＂的两类生油岩系和两种生储组合配置体系。这一油气形成分布的理论,已不断地被油气地球化学研究和勘探实践所证实。＂地块－海槽＂边缘带油气形成观点的提出,突破了以现今盆地为界限研究古生代油气形成分布规律的传统观念,增大了中国西北区可以发现的油气资源量,扩展了找油找气的新领域,具有十分重要的意义。     

印度尼西亚海潮致混合研究现状与展望

印度尼西亚海(简称印尼海)位于热带太平洋和印度洋交汇的海域,是全球最大的内潮生成海域.内潮耗散导致强烈的潮致混合,一方面将温跃层以下的海水卷入上层,降低印尼海海表温度,之后通过海气相互作用产生显著的天气和气候效应;另一方面对穿越印尼海的印度尼西亚贯穿流的物质与能量输运也有着重要影响.自Ar-lindo计划以来,人们对印...     

影响黄渤海的温带气旋数值集合预报试验

为了改进温带气旋数值预报的精度,基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,利用GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)-EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter)系统,设计了一套温带气旋集合预报方法,其具有的2种选择方案通过滤掉质量较差的集合成员从而将集合成员数目控制在10以内,达到了大幅降低集合预报计算量的目的。针对2020年7月一次影响黄海的温带气旋个例,开展了一系列决定性预报与集合预报的数值对比试验。分析结果如下:1)不采取任何择优方案的集合预报效果就已经明显优于决定性预报,而采取择优方案使得预报效果进一步得到提升;2)预报初始时刻择优(直接择优方案)的集合预报效果远不如短时积分3 h后才进行择优(积分择优方案)的预报效果; 3)积分择优方案优于直接择优方案的原因是,初始场集合体中的成员经过短时积分后其误差得以放大而使得择优更加准确。多个例的应用结果进一步表明,本文提出的积分择优方案温带气旋集合预报方法具有较好的业务预报应用前景。     

1982—2021年黄、渤海表层温度变化的线性和非线性特征分析

近几十年,全球气候变化背景下的海面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)呈现越来越显著的非线性和非稳定变化特征,并且在局部海区表现得更加明显。为全面认识海面温度的长期演变过程,本研究基于1982—2021年间AVHRR海表温度遥感数据,利用多项式回归趋势分类方法,系统分析了黄海和渤海(黄渤海) SST近40 a的长期变化及时空分布格局。结果显示:从1982年到2021年,黄渤海SST以0.020℃/a的平均速度净增加约0.772℃,增温幅度呈现明显的空间异质性和季节非对称性;从空间上来看,SST变化趋势呈现明显的西高东低的特征;从季节上来看,SST变化趋势呈现春夏季高、秋冬季低的特征;受2012年前后全球增温暂缓事件的影响,黄渤海58.87%的区域表层SST呈现显著的非线性(二次或三次多项式)趋势,20.62%的区域表现为隐藏的非线性趋势,4.21%的区域未呈现明显的趋势。结果表明,在海面温度长期变化研究中应进一步关注其空间异质性、季节对称性以及趋势的非线性特征。