利用WRF-Chem模拟研究京津冀地区夏季大气污染物的分布和演变

应用WRF—Chem（Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry）模式模拟研究了2007年8月京津冀地区近地面O3、NO2、PM2.5浓度的时空变化特征,将模拟结果与观测数据进行详细对比,结果表明,模式可以较好地模拟O3、PM2.5,浓度的空间分布和时间变化特征,成功再现了8月33和PM2.5的几次积累增加过程,其中O,的模拟值与观测值的相关系数为0．69～0．86,PM2.5的相关系数为0．44～0．49,但模式对NO2的模拟相对较差,相关系数为0．27～0．43。北京、天津地区为O3月均低值区,月均体积浓度约30×10^-9,渤海及京津冀以西地区O3月平均体积浓度可达60×10^-9;PM2,呈现南高北低的分布特征,变化范围为120～240μg／m3。14时月平均03体积浓度在北京、天津地区低于周边地区,约为60×10^-9;而PM2.5质量浓度在环渤海地区和河北南部较高,为100～120μg/m^3。8月17日北京出现一次典型的高浓度O,污染事件,14时北京地区温度达到33℃,O3体积浓度为80×10^-9～110×10^-9。在局地排放、化学反应和外来输送的共同作用下,渤海西岸和北岸PM2.5的质量浓度超过120μg／m3,其中二次气溶胶质量浓度为50～100μg／m3,一次排放人为气溶胶质量浓度为10～20μg／m3,海盐质量浓度为1～7μg／m3,二次气溶胶是该地区PM2.5的主要贡献者。     

Adjoint method for the optimum planning of industrial pollutant sources

The deterioration of air quality is threatening the life and health of people. Scientists in China and other countries have done a great deal of research work on the details of air pollution and the methods of preven-tion and control during the past decades. Up to now, most of the achievements are concentrated on the techniques of controlling pollutant sources and the programs of reduction, which focus on the improve-ment of air quality and the restoration of environment. The techniques of con…     

Numerical study of flow and gas diffusion in the near-wake behind an isolated building

To assist validation of the experimental data of urban pollution dispersion, the effect of an isolated building on the flow and gaseous diffusion in the wake region have been investigated numerically in the neutrally stratified rough-walled turbulent boundary layer. Numerical studies were carried out using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models. The CFD models used for the simulation were based on the steady-state Reynolds-Average Navier-Stoke equations (RANS) with κ-ε turbulence models; standard κ-ε and RNG κ-ε models. Inlet conditions and boundary conditions were specified numerically to the best information available for each fluid modeling simulation. A gas pollutant was emitted from a point source within the recirculation cavity behind the building model. The accuracy of these simulations was examined by comparing the predicted results with wind tunnel experimental data. It was confirmed that simulation using the model accurately reproduces the velocity and concentration diffusion fields with a fine-mish resolution in the near wake region. Results indicated that there is a good agreement between the numerical simulation and the wind tunnel experiment for both wind flow and concentration diffusion. The results of this work can help to improve the understanding of mechanisms of and simulation of pollutant transport in an urban environment.     

“经济大国能源与气候论坛”进展及前景展望

"经济大国能源与气候论坛"在推动全球主要国家就应对气候变化主要议题达成一致方面取得了进展,已初步显示出其作为联合国气候谈判晴雨表的特征。该论坛的实质是主要发达国家为转移减排责任和压力,降低减排成本,绑架主要发展中国家在全球应对气候变化领域实施的集体强权政治。论坛的核心目标在于推动全球量化减排,目的是借全球量化减排,营造低碳和气候友好技术的广大市场,使得具有技术优势的这些经济大国拥有新的主导全球经济的力量。我国应坚持"共同但有区别的责任"原则,联合与会发展中国家强调气候变化的历史责任,反对为全球温室气体排放设限等不公平提议,团结广大发展中国家,同时抓住论坛力推低碳经济和低碳技术发展的机遇,使我国站在全球新一轮技术革命的前沿。     

新疆喀什噶尔河流域水资源质量保护及对策

喀什噶尔河流域水环境系统十分脆弱, 运用环境容量总量控制、水质模型等方法进行了重点河段污染物控制量计算, 合理的划分水功能区, 拟订可行的水资源保护目标, 确定了污染物总量控制方案, 为水资源保护、水资源的可持续利用提供依据.     

Temporal-spatial Distribution of Suitable Areas for Major Food Crops in China Over 60 Years

Simulating the temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for crops is an important part of analyzing the effects of climate change on crop growth, reducing the vulnerability of crop growth, and assessing the adaptability of crop growth to climate change. This study selected climate factors that affect the growth of wheat, maize and rice, and it combined surface soil and ground elevation factors as environment variables, as well as data from agricultural observation stations as species variables. The MaxEnt ecological model was used to identify suitable areas for these three crops during the period of 1953-2012. The areas suitable for the three crops were analyzed to determine the temporal-spatial distribution of major food crops and to estimate the difference in crop growth adaptability under climate change. The results showed the following: \mathrm{①} The response to climate change of the areas suitable for food crops could be ranked from strongest to weakest as follows: wheat, rice, and maize. \mathrm{②} On the same space-time scale, for the growth of wheat and rice, the southern agricultural regions, mountainous areas and plateaus were relatively unsuitable for a wider variety of crops than the northern agricultural regions, plains and basins. \mathrm{③} The adaptability of wheat increased in the major agricultural regions slightly. The adaptability of maize increased in the northern agricultural regions and decreased in the southern agricultural regions, respectively. The adaptability of rice was stable in the southern agricultural regions, and it decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and increased in the northeastern region. \mathrm{④} Over 60 years, the ability of the major food crops to adapt to climate change increased in the northeast region, Gansu-Xinjiang region, Southwest region and Loess Plateau region, but the adaptability of major food crops decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Mid-and-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. \mathrm{⑤} The suitable areas of maize and rice were significantly correlated with planting areas and yields, respectively, which provided feasibility for simulating the distribution of suitable areas on maize and rice in different climate scenarios in the future. The suitable area of wheat is not significantly related to the planting area and yield. In the future, we will take more factors to model the suitable area of wheat accurately.     

A two-layer model for studying 2D dissolved pollutant runoff over impermeable surfaces

Dissolved pollutants in stormwater are a main contributor to water pollution in urban environments. However, many existing transport models are semi-empirical and only consider one-dimensional flows, which limit their predictive capacity. Combining the shallow water and the advection–diffusion equations, a two-dimensional physically based model is developed for dissolved pollutant transport by adopting the concept of a ‘control layer’. A series of laboratory experiments has been conducted to validate the proposed model, taking into account the effects of buildings and intermittent rainfalls. The predictions are found to be in good agreement with experimental observations, which supports the assumption that the depth of the control layer is constant. Based on the validated model, a parametric study is conducted, focusing on the characteristics of the pollutant distribution and transport rate over the depth. The hyetograph, including the intensity, duration and intermittency, of rainfall event has a significant influence on the pollutant transport rates. The depth of the control layer, rainfall intensity, surface roughness and area length are dominant factors that affect the dissolved pollutant transport. Finally, several perspectives of the new pollutant transport model are discussed. This study contributes to an in-depth understanding of the dissolved pollutant transport processes on impermeable surfaces and urban stormwater management.     

Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations.     

2010-2015年中国土地利用变化的时空格局与新特征

土地利用/覆被变化是人类活动对地球表层及全球变化影响研究的重要内容。本文基于Landsat 8 OLI、GF-2等遥感图像和人机交互解译方法,获取的土地利用数据实现了中国2010-2015年土地利用变化遥感动态监测。应用土地利用动态度、年变化率等指标,从全国和分区角度揭示了2010-2015年中国土地利用变化的时空特征。结果表明：2010-2015年中国建设用地面积共增加24.6×10³ km²,耕地面积共减少4.9×10³ km²,林草用地面积共减少16.4×10³ km²。2010-2015年与2000-2010年相比,中国土地利用变化的区域空间格局基本一致,但分区变化呈现新的特征。东部建设用地持续扩张和耕地面积减少,变化速率有所下降;中部建设用地扩张和耕地面积减少速度增加;西部建设用地扩张明显加速,耕地面积增速进一步加快,林草面积减少速率增加;东北地区建设用地扩展持续缓慢,耕地面积稳中有升,水旱田转换突出,林草面积略有下降。从“十二五”期间国家实施的主体功能区布局来看,东部地区的土地利用变化特征与优化和重点开发区的国土空间格局管控要求基本吻合;中部和西部地区则面临对重点生态功能区和农产品主产区相关土地利用类型实现有效保护的严峻挑战,必须进一步加大对国土空间开发格局的有效管控。     

Geochemical Changes in Metal and Nutrient Loading at Orplands Farm Managed Retreat Site, Essex, UK (April 1995–1997)

Salt marshes have recently been considered to be a major part of the coastal system and have played a key role in the development of the UK coastal management strategy. Managed Retreat (MR) is a process aimed to restore salt marshes by realignment of the seawalls allowing tidal inundation of low value agricultural land. The resultant marshes are expected to function both as an integral part of the flood defence system and as an ecological conservation area. We report on the effects of salt marsh restoration on metal and nutrient loading of the sediment at the Orplands Farm MR site, Essex, UK. Surficial grab and sediment cores were collected from the two fields that comprise the site. The heavy metals, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, Ni and Zn were analysed to determine changes in anthropogenic inputs to sediments. The major ions, Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn and Na were also monitored to identify changes in sediment geochemistry. Analysis of the cored sediments after inundation for Na and Sr demonstrated that penetration of estuarine water had, within 2 yr of exposure, reached an average depth of 20 cm. The study observed that input of heavy metals had occurred to the sediments with the most significant being that of Pb, however increases were also observed for Cr and Cu. However, concentrations of Cd in the MR sediments decreased from 1995 to 1997. For the major metals within both fields it was found that the dominant changes were those of enrichment of marine associated metals, Ca, K, Mg and Na via inputs from tidal inundation. The concentration of Ca in the sediments was further enriched by the deposition of carbonates to the sediments. One field demonstrated a significant loss of Fe from sediments which corresponded to changes in redox potential of the sediments. Differences observed in geochemical profiles between the two fields of the site were attributed to differences in land use prior to flooding.