The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

ELF propagation parameters for uniform models of the Earth–ionosphere waveguide

Uniform models for the Earth–ionosphere cavity are considered with particular attention to the physical properties of the ionosphere for the extremely low frequency (ELF) range. Two consistent features have long been recognized for the range: the presence of two distinct altitude layers of maximum energy dissipation within the lower ionosphere, and a “knee”-like change in the vertical conductivity profile representing a transition in dominance from ion-dominated to electron-dominated conductivity. A simplified two-exponential version of the Greifinger and Greifinger (1978) technique widely used in ELF work identifies two slopes in the conductivity profile and, providing accurate results in the ELF communication band (45–75 Hz), simulates too flat a frequency dependence of the quality factor within the Schumann resonance frequency range (5–40 Hz). The problem is traced to the upward migration, with frequency increasing, of the lower dissipation layer through the “knee” region resulting in a pronounced decrease of the effective scale height for conductivity. To overcome this shortcoming of the two-exponential approximation and still retain valuable model analyticity, a more general approach (but still based on the Greifinger and Greifinger formalism) is presented in the form of a “knee” model whose predictions for the modal frequencies, the wave phase velocities and the quality factors reasonably represent observations in the Schumann resonance frequency range.     

甘青地区中晚全新世植被变化与人类活动

史前时期人类对环境的影响是近几年来国际研究的热点。在甘青地区，全新世的孢粉资料比较多。但在中晚全新世，该区人类对环境的影响作用及其程度仍不清楚，许多孢粉分析资料中并没有充分考虑人类活动的影响。本文选取孢粉分辨率较高、代表性较好的青海湖、兰州、秦安大地湾三地的资料，着重研究了其中乔木成分的变化。分析发现，孢粉组合中乔木成分的变化与气候变化的趋势并不一致。通过对考古及历史资料的分析，笔者认为，该区的植被很早就受到人类活动的影响。自全新世中期，本区植被中的乔木成分波动下降。5000－3000a BP期间，史前农业对植被的影响较大。3000－2000a BP期间，植被略有恢复。2000a BP以后，人为影响加剧，植被中乔木成分迅速下降。研究者认为，依赖孢粉资料重建中晚全新世的气候变化历史应当慎重。     

晚更新世以来青海北部的人类活动与湖泊演变

作为高海拔生态环境的青海北部是青藏高原的重要组成部分。晚更新世晚期以来 ,青海北部气候环境一直处于冷暖、干湿波动过程之中 ,湖泊水域也发生了相应的扩张和收缩 ,成为高原人类迁移和发展的自然背景。约 3 0kaB .P .,在晚期智人出现和迁徙的关键时期 ,青海北部开始有了最早的人类活动 ;更新世末—全新世初 ,气候转暖 ,古人类再次来到青海北部 ;进入全新世中期 ,气候暖湿 ,湖水位回升 ,细石器技术变得十分普通 ,青海北部的人类活动渐趋频繁。     

蒙甘新相邻(北山)地区金铜矿床时空分布特征及成矿作用

文章首次对蒙甘新相邻(北山)地区各类金、铜和铜—镍矿床(点)地质特征、成因类型和空间分布特点进行了系统总结，论证了金、铜和铜—镍成矿作用与古生代岩浆活动的关系，对区域地壳演化过程中金、铜和铜—镍成矿的动力学机制进行了深入讨论。研究结果表明，该区的金矿床(点)大体可划分为变质岩型、火山岩型、斑岩型和深成侵入岩型；铜矿床(点)有斑岩型、夕卡岩型和铜—镍硫化物型。金和铜矿床(点)大都沿古板块汇聚带分布，与海西期火成岩具密切的时空分布关系，它们是古板块对接碰撞期和碰撞期后大规模构造—岩浆活动的产物。     

锦江水库坝址③号断裂构造破碎带地质特征及其对堤坝安全性的影响

通过野外地质调查和地球化学探测成果，结合区域地质发展史，论述锦江水库③号断裂构造破碎带的地质特征及其对建筑物的影响。     

西秦岭中川花岗岩岩浆活动特征及地质效应

西秦岭中川花岗岩为3期5次侵入的复式岩体,其主侵入体为印支—燕山期黑云母同碰撞S型二长花岗岩。该岩浆活动在沉积建造中形成热变质作用带和岩浆侵位构造,并产生成矿地质效应。     

天津地区构造沉降及控沉远景问题

使用第四纪地质、统计地貌学和历史水准点调查等手段,研究了天津地区的构造沉降背景,讨论了控制地面沉降远景目标问题。研究工作使用天津地区第一海相层底板埋深、全新统地层钻孔、深层基岩标和历史水准点等一系列资料,获得天津市和邻近地区构造沉降的平均速率为1.7mm a左右。研究还发现了基底构造沉降背景具有这样一些规律:(1)从西部到东部沿海,区内沉降有逐渐增加的趋势。(2)沿海河发育了一条北西方向的构造沉降异常带。(3)以海河为界,沉降分布的方向不同,北部为北西西向,南部为北东方向,整体活动规律反映了活动断裂和基底构造的控制作用。     

新疆伊宁盆地活动断裂新活动特征研究

新疆伊宁盆地主要分布有巩留南、喀什河、雅马特等6条活动断裂，断裂走向近东西向与北酉一北北西向。其中巩留南断裂、喀什河断裂、雅马特断裂等在晚更新世一全新世时期有过多次显著的新活动，切错了晚更新世一全新世堆积物。在喀什河断裂上1812年发生了8级大展，形成长约100km的地震形变带。在巩留南断裂、雅马特断裂、伊宁断裂上也有受控于断裂近代新活动的中等地震发生。     

琼北火山及断裂的活动性——氡、钍气体放射性示踪

琼北火山区是中国的主要火山群之一。笔者应用HDS - 1型快速数字闪烁测氡仪对琼北火山群马鞍岭和雷虎岭段的火山及断裂活动性进行了勘测和研究 ,对荣山 -岭南断裂进行了重点测量 ,查明了该断裂的具体位置 ,研究了火山及断裂的气体释放特征。发现Rn(氡 ) ,Th(钍 )的变化与断裂构造有密切关系 ,在Ⅰ ,Ⅱ测线上Th ,Rn异常对断裂的反映相当好。根据Th ,Rn的展布特征和浓度变化比较深入地分析了断裂的活动性。在雷虎岭西南 ,荣山 -岭南断裂活动性最强 ,而且 ,自西北向东南断裂规模及活动性均有增强的趋势。此外 ,还对火山的活动性进行了讨论和分析