利用中期地震活动异常综合预测地震危险区

在分析了首都圈地区（３８．５°～４１°Ｎ，１１３°～１２０°Ｅ）中强以上地震前地震活动特征的基础上，总结出了本区中强以上地震前地震活动的普遍性特征，应用孕震模型对地震活动异常进行综合分析，给出了应用地震活动异常进行地震预报的物理基础。文中还提出了应用中期地震活动异常进行预报的综合判别指标，当其达到给定阈值时，再考虑地质构造、中强以上地震发生的自然概率、大震后的减震作用、中期地震活动异常的分布及其预报效能等因素，给出二维的综合概率分布图，把概率值较高的地区作为未来一、二年中强以上地震的危险区。此外还进行了震级、时间预测方面的研究。     

应变能释放随时间变化的聚类方法研究

由于线性回归模型应用的广泛性，本文设定样品集的趋势是线性的，在用最优分割法对地震活动性类研究的基础上引进线性模型，扩大了最优分割法在地震活动性分类中的应用，将降类问题与建模问题有机地结合起来，去揭示地震活动性中的某种内在规律，这对于探索地震预报，研究地震发生的规律性有一定的实际意义。     

华北块体(地台)北缘几个地质问题的探讨及其成矿作用

本文以卫星图象信息为依据,结合野外调研,提出并确定了华北块体北缘存在:块体缝合线,褶皱-逆掩断层带,后孤碰撞带(断裂带),台槽过渡带,岩浆弧,以及燕山-喜山期的NNE向岩浆活动带、断陷带(断陷盆地)等双重构造的新认识。并在此基础上,对华北块体北缘与深成岩浆岩,燕山期岩浆活动带(包括火山岩带)有关的铀矿化作用的独特构造环境及“岩浆”型,断陷带中和面型等主要铀矿床成矿模式和铀成矿带的划分及其划分依据作了研究和探讨。并以铀矿床的实例作为佐证。     

Rapid deglaciation as an initiator of volcanic activity: An hypothesis

Volcanic activity on sub-Antarctic Marion Island is found to have occurred only during the interglacials. The present volcano distribution is associated with a radial and peripheral fault system, the location of which appears to be related to the former glacier distribution. An hypothesis is presented suggesting that the faulting is a result of deglaciation and that the specific location of the faults is due to the differential stresses occurring between ice-covered and ice-free areas during isostatic uplift. The faulting initiates volcanism due to the location of the island within a volcanic region.     

台北盆地构造特征及形成机制探讨

台北盆地位于台湾造山带的北部,它的形成有其特殊的机制而不同于一般意义上由于造山带的垮塌直接导致的盆地。钻井、地震勘探等资料表明,控制盆地形成的山脚断层并不是一条完整的正断层,而是由 3个段落组成,每个段落控制 1个沉积中心,彼此之间没有沟通。山脚断层各段落的活动性并不相同,向NE方向随时间逐渐增强,目前最为活动的段落集中在中段和北段,南段已不活动。台北盆地并不是一个孤立发育的盆地,是与金山断层东南的大屯火山群同时陷落的,具有一致的地球物理场背景、沉降规模以及正断层活动,广义的台北盆地从沉降范围和机制上还应该包括金山断层以南的大屯火山群。盆地周围发育了一系列的火山 (群),由于盆地的发育是紧随这些火山主要活动之后的,盆地的形成与周围火成活动有着必然联系,一些地球物理资料和盆地内的构造发育及沉积迁移特征表明,台北盆地的发育是深部岩浆体的冷却收缩所致。台北盆地深部存在与大屯火山群深部相通的岩浆体,岩浆体的冷却由南向北迁移     

Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.     

Significance of variations in the wind energy environment over the past 50 years with respect to dune activity and desertification in arid and semiarid northern China

Climate data from 339 meteorological stations collected from the 1950s to the early 2000s was employed to discuss aeolian activity in arid and semiarid northern China. The results show that at decadal time scales, erosivity varied greatly in this region. Most of arid and semiarid northern China was characterised by environments with moderate to low wind energy. After the 1980s, the erosivity was only 20 to 50% of that beforehand, and this difference had a significant impact on the environmental changes observed during the two periods. The dune mobility index was consistent with the observed dune activity. After the 1980s dune activity decreased and in some deserts with vegetated dune systems during the 1970s most of the dune plinths were active until the 1980s, after which only the crests were active. Some mobile dunes that had developed at the margins of mobile deserts were replaced by semi-anchored or anchored dunes. Because most desert areas with vegetated dune systems in arid and semiarid northern China are used for farming or grazing, the results of our monitoring show that the desertification trends were consistent with the trends in erosivity and dune activity in this region. Desertification was controlled much more by climatic changes than has previously been acknowledged, and especially by fluctuations in wind energy.     

Patterns of resource use by livestock during and after drought on the commons of Namaqualand, South Africa

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of drought on grazing patterns of livestock in a communal rangeland in Namaqualand. Water points were the foci of almost all grazing routes even after the drought, and the areas away from the water points were less heavily utilized. The mountains could be regarded as key resource areas for livestock since the grazing intensity was higher in the elevated areas of the rangeland than on the surrounding low lying areas during and immediately after drought. Spatial patterns of resource use by livestock on the commons did not differ during the drought and post-drought period. The lengths of the daily grazing routes were similar for both periods. This may be a consequence of the weakness of animals during the drought when forage was scarce which prevented them from walking further. The size of home ranges of the herds did not change during the two monitoring periods. We attribute this to social reasons because herders try to avoid the mixing of herds. In the commons of Namaqualand, herders are also spatially constrained and this restricts their options to adapt to drought, and hence many animals died.