夏季青藏高原TBB低频振荡及其与华中地区旱涝的关系

利用17年(1980—1994年和1997—1998年)逐候GMS TBB资料,对华中地区夏季旱涝年的TBB候距平场进行了合成分析,研究了夏季青藏高原TBB的低频(10~20天和30~60天)振荡及其同华中地区旱涝的关系。结果表明,青藏高原东南部(27°~30°N,90°~100°E)是低频振荡最为活跃的地区,青藏高原东南部和华中地区TBB存在正相关关系,其相关程度涝年比旱年更为显著。对华中地区旱涝而言,青藏高原东南部的30~60天振荡比10~20天振荡敏感性要强。华中地区涝(旱)年,青藏高原东南部存在较强(弱)的低频(30~60天)TBB负值中心,其影响方式有的自西向东传播,有的同华中地区低频(30~60天)TBB同时加强或减弱。青藏高原低频(30~60天)TBB的负值位相有利于对流云团的生成和发展。     

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.     

Modeling the length of day and extrapolating the rotation of the Earth

The stochastic behavior of the length of day (LOD) process is analyzed and is modeled within statistical accuracy on a time-scale ranging from weeks to millennia by a three-component model comprising a global Brownian motion process, decadal fluctuations, and a 50-day Madden–Julian oscillation. While the model is intended to be phenomenological, some possible physical models underlying the three components are speculated upon. The model is applied to estimate long-range extrapolation errors. For example, it predicts a standard error of 1 h in the clock-time correction ΔT for extrapolation by 1,500 years from 500 to 2000 BC.     

我国在井-含水层系统对地震波同震响应方面的研究进展

总结了井-含水层系统对地震波同震响应的研究历史和现状,对我国最近几年发表的关于此类研究的文献进行了分类总结,得到了目前国内关于井-含水层系统对地震波同震响应研究的六个方向的研究进展,在文章的最后列举了目前井-含水层系统对地震波同震响应方面的研究成果以及今后的研究方向。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF EFFECT OF SSTA OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN ON ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION IN THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDE

Numerical experiments on forcing dissipation and heating response of dipole (unipole) are carried out using global spectral models with quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equations. For each experiment model integration is run for 90 days on the condition of three-wave quasi-resonance. The results are given as follows: Under the effects of dipole (unipole) forcing source and basic flow intensity, there exist strong interactions among the three planetary waves and quasi-biweekly and intraseasonal oscillation of the three planetary waves. In the meantime, the changes in the intensity of dipole or unipole forcing source and basic flow have different frequency modulation effects on LFO in the middle and higher latitudes. The results of the stream function field of three quasi-resonant waves evolving with time confirm that the low-frequency oscillation exists in extratropical latitude.     

Recent Progress in the Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate in China

Studies of the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） on climate in China in the last four years are reviewed. It is reported that temperature and precipitation over the TP have increased during recent decades. From satellite data analysis, it is demonstrated that most of the precipitation over the TP is from deep convection clouds. Moreover, the huge TP mechanical forcing and extraordinary elevated thermal forcing impose remarkable impacts upon local circulation and global climate. In winter and spring, stream flow is deflected by a large obstacle and appears as an asymmetric dipole, making East Asia much colder than mid Asia in winter and forming persistent rainfall in late winter and early spring over South China. In late spring, TP heating contributes to the establishment and intensification of the South Asian high and the abrupt seasonal transition of the surrounding circulations. In summer, TP heating in conjunction with the TP air pump cause the deviating stream field to resemble a cyclonic spiral, converging towards and rising over the TP. Therefore, the prominent Asian monsoon climate over East Asia and the dry climate over mid Asia in summer are forced by both TP local forcing and Eurasian continental forcing.
Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast.
On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP lea     

1997年华南汛期降水异常与大气低频振荡的关系

利用国家气象中心提供的逐日降水资料及NCEP逐日再分析资料,分析了1997年华南地区汛期异常降水低频特征与大气低频振荡的关系。研究表明,1997年华南前汛期和后汛期降水表现为不同的振荡特征;前汛期降水主要以10～20天准双周振荡为主,而后汛期降水的低频特征并不明显。进一步对降水和其它要素的低频振荡特征进行分析发现,该年华南地区前汛期降水和风场的低频振荡现象是普遍存在的;低频纬向风的传播变化与降水的时间分布有较好的对应。并且,高、低纬度低频风场同时向华南地区传输,会产生极强的降水。在对大气低频扰动动能的分析中也发现,华南前汛期降水伴随着低频扰动动能在该地区的集中释放。     

大气季节内振荡的数值模拟 II. 全球变暖的影响

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室（LASG）发展的耦合气候模式FGOALS1.0_g控制试验、二氧化碳（CO2）浓度加倍试验模拟结果及实测结果（NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料）研究了全球变暖对大气季节内振荡（ISO）特征变化的影响。通过对比分析控制试验、二氧化碳浓度加倍试验模拟结果及观测结果发现:（1）FGOALS1.0_g耦合气候模式具有一定的模拟季节内振荡的能力，主要表现为模式能够模拟出ISO活跃区的位置、中心位置的季节变动以及强度的季节变化，其缺陷是模拟的ISO强度偏弱，模拟的ISO周期不显著且偏高频；（2）实测资料诊断分析得到的近六十年来偏暖阶段ISO活跃区强度增强及范围扩大可能不是人类活动影响使温室气体增加所导致的，它可能是大气ISO本身的年代际尺度变化；（3）近六十年来纬向东传波（西传波）的能量的存在增长（减少）趋势的主要原因可能是人类活动影响引起温室气体增加所导致的；（4）由于FGOALS1.0_g耦合气候模式在模拟ISO主周期及强度方面时存在不足，因此实测结果诊断分析得到的偏暖阶段ISO小波能量强，主周期范围大，偏冷阶段反之的结论用FGOALS1.0_g耦合气候模式尚难以证实。     

Long-term evolution of spheroidal galaxies with locally isotropic velocity distribution

The short-term evolution of spheroidal galaxies has been explored by S. Chandrasekhar et al. and G. S. Sunder et al. In this paper, we study their long-term evolution with Laskar's method of frequency analysis. The main new results are as follows: (1) There exists a unique equilibrium, which is spherically symmetric. This equilibrium has a critical linear stability. (2) Generally speaking, the semi-axes exhibit quasiperiodic or nearly quasi-periodic (in a time scale longer than a Hubble time) oscillations around the radius of the above-mentioned equilibrium, so the equilibrium is practically stable. (3) There are cases in which one of the semi-axes tends fast to zero while the other to some finite value. The limit state is generally planar rather than linear, i.e. it is the symmetric semi-axis that tends to zero. This implies that some disk galaxies may have originated from spheroidal pregalaxy material.     

湖北省降水量的周期分析

结合降水量对农业生产的影响特点将全年降水量分成５个阶段,根据聚类分析的结果将不同的时段的降水量进行分区,由此对全省的降水量做自相关分析和功率谱分析,从而发现了降水量的变化周期。