2003年东亚季风季节内振荡对我国东部地区降水的影响

将2003年东亚夏季风指数IM进行30~60天带通滤波后,分析结果表明,大气季节内振荡(ISO)的经向传播主要表现为从南海南部地区向北传播,其传播过程中的高值中心分别对应我国南海地区、华南前汛期以及江淮流域梅雨的强降水过程。ISO的传播还表现出纬向与经向相互接力的特征,纬向上源于热带地区孟加拉湾向东传播的ISO和源于副热带西太平洋地区向西传播的ISO 在120 °E附近汇合后,分别补充到由南海南部向北传播的ISO中,使其可以继续加强北传,最北界可延伸到35 °N以北,对我国东部地区大尺度降水过程产生一定的影响。     

气候平均场中的西太平洋副热带高压双脊线特征及其与季风槽准10天振荡的关系

副热带高压双脊线过程几乎历年均存在,其“季节锁相”与地域性使得在气候平均场上西太平洋副热带地区也存在明显的双脊线过程。作者利用43年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料对5～10月气候平均场中的西太平洋副热带高压双脊线过程进行了分析。气候平均场上5～10月西太平洋副热带高压共出现6次双脊线过程,集中发生在7月下旬至9月下旬,表明每年这个时段最易发生双脊线事件。每次双脊线过程均表现为副高南侧新生一脊线,发展几天后就减弱消失,北侧脊线（原脊线）继续维持。初步的诊断分析表明,6次双脊线过程中南侧脊线的生成与季风槽8～10天周期的“间歇性增强东伸”密切相关,这一准10天振荡在7月下旬至9月下旬的突然增强造就了双脊线的“季节锁相”。进一步分析发现,季风槽8～10天的“间歇性增强东伸”与两支分别来自西太平洋的西传准10天振荡和来自赤道的北传准10天振荡有关,这两支振荡同位相,其有利于位相同时传入南海季风区（10°N～15°N,110°E～120°E）,共同作用,引起季风槽的“间歇性增强东伸”。     

西北太平洋夏季风对中国长江流域夏季降水的影响

利用1979～2005年NCEP/NCAR的环流场再分析资料和降水资料, 通过对季风期降水、 大气环流、 水汽输送及低频振荡等方面的分析, 分别从时间和空间上分析了西北太平洋夏季风与中国长江流域夏季降水的联系。结果表明:(1) 西北太平洋夏季风与中国长江流域夏季降水存在显著的负相关关系, 在西北太平洋夏季风强盛时, 副热带高压异常偏北, 其西侧的偏南气流异常偏弱, 使得我国长江流域形成低层异常环流及水汽输送的辐散区, 从而造成长江流域夏季降水偏少; 而在西北太平洋夏季风减弱的年份, 西太平洋副高异常偏南偏西, 在长江流域以南地区形成异常偏强的偏南风水汽输送, 使得长江流域成为南、 北距平风的汇合区, 其上空对流活动异常活跃, 非常有利于长江流域的降水。 (2) 东亚局地Hadley垂直环流在强、 弱季风年也显著不同, 在强季风年里, Hadley局地环流异常偏弱, 长江流域上空出现的下沉运动距平, 使得该地区降水减弱, 而弱季风年则正好相反。 (3) 西北太平洋夏季风存在显著的气候平均的大气季节内振荡 (CISO), 在西北太平洋夏季风减弱时期, 长江流域降水同时受到源自热带西北太平洋西传CISO和源自热带印度洋东传CISO的共同影响, 可能造成了某种锁相关系, 从而造成降水偏多; 而在强季风年里长江流域只受由西太平洋西传的CISO的影响, 不容易激发降水。     

Seasonality of Interannual Inter-hemispheric Oscillations over the Past Five Decades

Air mass is inter-hemispherically redistributed, leading to an interesting phenomenon known as the Inter-Hemispheric Oscillation (IHO). In the present article, the seasonality of the interannual IHO has been examined by employing monthly mean reanalyses from NCEP/NCAR, EAR40, and JRA25 for the period of 1958-2006. It is found that the IHO indices as calculated from different reanalyses are generally consistent with each other. A distinct seesaw structure in all four seasons between the northern and southern...     

Late Pleistocene to early Holocene lake level and paleoclimate insights from Stansbury Island, Bonneville basin, Utah

This paper reports on recent multiproxy research conducted to determine the chronology of lake-level fluctuations recorded in sediments from a natural exposure at a classic Bonneville basin site. Grain size, carbonate percentage, magnetic susceptibility, amount of charcoal, and diatom community composition data were collected from the 16 lacustrine units that compose the 122 cm stratigraphic column in Stansbury Gulch. Trends observed in the measured proxies reveal several significant changes in lake level, and thereby effective moisture, over the approximately 14,500 yr time span represented by the sediments. Results (1) verify the effectiveness of the multiproxy approach in Bonneville basin studies, which has been underutilized in this region, (2) reaffirm the double nature of Lake Bonneville's Stansbury oscillation, (3) suggest a previously undocumented post-Gilbert highstand of Great Salt Lake, and (4) identify possible teleconnections between climate events in the Bonneville basin and events in the North Atlantic at about 20,500 and 7500 ¹⁴C yr BP.     

基于MJO的延伸预报

近10年来,2～4周的延伸预报成为天气和气候业务预报发展的一个方向。目前比较有效的方法是根据季节内振荡的传播,尤其是MJO振荡(30～60天周期)的传播来制作延伸期预报。国际上一些天气-气候预报中通过数年的业务试验已取得了初步结果。作者首先介绍了MJO振荡及季风的季节内振荡(MISO)特征,并从季节内振荡与中纬度相互作用的角度讨论了制作延伸预报的理论依据;进一步对延伸预报的可预报性、预报方法及国内外业务应用进展进行了综述,并以江淮梅雨为例探讨了我国延伸预报的可预报性及信号;最后阐述了延伸预报的发展趋势。     

Chronology of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Salzach palaeoglacier area (Eastern Alps)

A chronostratigraphy based on luminescence data was established at a key loess profile (Duttendorf) in the northern alpine foreland of Austria. The data help to constrain the timing and duration of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the area of one of the largest east Alpine piedmont glaciers, the Salzach palaeoglacier. Climate deterioration and maximum advance of this glacier were coeval with the beginning of the main loess accumulation phase in the glacier forefield at ～29–30 ka. A late LGM‐outwash gravel layer deposited on top of the loess profile marks the end of the LGM glacier activity at ～20 ka. The geomorphological setting around the loess profile provides evidence of a major glacier oscillation during the course of the LGM, a phenomenon qualitatively known from other alpine palaeoglaciers but never interpreted in terms of palaeoclimate. A LGM glacier oscillation similar to that of the Salzach palaeoglacier was reported recently from the south Alpine Tagliamento palaeoglacier, suggesting a common forcing. The onset of loess deposition at Duttendorf and the tentatively contemporal advance of the Salzach palaeoglacier reflect, as do other data, the drastic cooling in Europe as a result of Heinrich event 3. The first glacier maximum is not well constrained in the study area but a correlation with the better dated Tagliamento amphitheatre suggests a possible response to Heinrich 2. The second re‐advance occurred synchronously (within dating uncertainties) in both palaeoglaciers forefields (at ～21 ka) but the forcing mechanism remains unknown. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

STUDY ON DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL CISK-ROSSBY WAVES AND MECHANISM OF 30-50 DAY OSCILLATIONS

To add to the growing mature research on the tropical 30-50 day oscillations from a new prospective, the current work bases on dynamic analysis of baroclinic quasi-geostrophic models to discuss dynamic mechanisms for the generation and propagation of CISK-Rossby waves, and to understand restraints and effects of different wave structures and thermodynamic forcing on the 30-50 day oscillations in the tropical atmosphere. Some important properties of the oscillation propagation have been explained and, in detail, with respect to its meridional propagation and vertical “baroclinic” structure. The work has come up with some new opinions and viewpoints. New opinions about the propagation and energy dispersion are to be proved by more observations and study.     

SST THERMAL FORCING – A DISCUSSION ON THE MECHANISM OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION

Dynamic and numerical methods are used to discuss the atmospheric response to SST thermal forcing. The results show that for planetary scale systems, the standing SST thermal forcing can quickly excite a stable atmospheric equilibrium state response, which is characterized by obvious large-scale teleconnection oscillation in east-west and south-north directions. For synoptic scale systems, the SST thermal forcing mainly excites the atmospheric low-frequency oscillation. Some basic relation and dynamic processes between SST thermal forcing and atmospheric response pattern are revealed and some new viewpoints are presented.     

我国东部夏季降水百年雨型的多时间尺度变化特征研究

本文用1900-1950年的我国实测的与内插的降水、气温资料，结合近代先进的统计方法对立了1900-1950年我国东部夏季降水雨型序列，并将其与已有的近48年（1951-1998年）的夏季雨型序列相衔接，进而研究了近百年我国夏季雨带的演变规律及其与ENSO的关系，此外，还研究了百年夏季雨型与大气活动中心在基本态时间尺度上的关系，研究了北太平洋涛动和我国夏季降水的关系。