KSC-127型射流式冲击器应用于大陆科学深钻的试验研究

根据现场试验,评价了ＫＳＣ－１２７冲击器的性能,分析了其对大陆科学深钻的适应性,且对大直径全面破碎冲击回转钻进工艺进行了讨论。     

碳酸盐岩早期差异成储路径及其对储集性能的影响:以滨里海盆地N油田石炭系KT-Ⅰ与KT-Ⅱ层系为例*

以滨里海盆地N油田石炭系KT-Ⅰ与KT-Ⅱ层系碳酸盐岩储集层为例,综合岩心、薄片、扫描电镜、高压压汞、常规物性分析以及各类测试资料,对碳酸盐岩储集层特征以及早期成储路径展开系统研究,并进一步探讨成储路径与储集层孔喉结构和质量的关系。结果表明,KT-Ⅰ层系以云岩类储集层为主,颗粒灰岩次之,其中云岩类储集层以晶间(溶)孔、小型溶洞为主,孔喉连通性好,为高孔—高渗的孔洞型储集层, 而颗粒灰岩类储集层以粒内溶孔、铸模孔及生物体腔孔发育为特征,孔喉连通性差,属中孔—低渗的孔隙型储集层。KT-Ⅱ层系以粒间(溶)孔和生物体腔孔发育的颗粒灰岩为特征,为中高孔—高渗的孔隙型储集层。进一步分析表明,KT-Ⅰ层系云岩与灰岩储集层单旋回厚度小,皆受高频海平面升降变化驱动的早成岩期岩溶的控制, 而KT-Ⅱ层系单旋回厚度大,颗粒滩未经历早期岩溶的改造。 3类储集层的成储路径分别为: (1)KT-Ⅰ云岩类储集层,准同生期白云石化作用导致矿物相转变并使得部分矿物更易遭受溶蚀→早成岩期岩溶作用控制储集层的形成→云岩抗压溶岩石骨架有利于储集层的保护; (2)KT-Ⅰ颗粒灰岩储集层,早成岩期岩溶作用优化储集层→初期压实控制胶结流体通道进而控制胶结作用—粒间孔与粒内孔差异胶结控制储集层的保护; (3)KT-Ⅱ颗粒灰岩储集层,原始沉积环境控制储集层的形成→初期压实与早期胶结作用控制储集层的保护。成储路径差异控制了不同的孔渗特征与孔喉结构,而孔喉结构进一步控制了早期岩溶型云岩、早期岩溶型颗粒灰岩、原生孔保存型颗粒灰岩3种储集层的质量。研究结果将为具类似特征的碳酸盐岩储集层成因分析提供参考,也因发现了云岩较灰岩更易早期溶蚀的现象而具有较为重要的岩溶地质学意义。     

覆水砂土场地中桥梁群桩基础地震响应离心试验研究

为探究覆水饱和砂土场地中土-群桩基础-桥梁结构体系动力相互作用规律,自主设计并制作了直（斜）群桩基础-桥梁结构物理相似模型,开展了不同地震动强度和不同特性地震波输入下的离心机振动台试验,分析了群桩基础-桥梁结构动力特性指标,探究了覆水饱和砂土地基超孔隙水压力发展规律和桩-土相互作用动力响应特性。研究结果表明：覆水的存在对地基土-桥梁结构体系的基本周期和阻尼影响很小,但会导致直群桩基础桥梁结构的振动幅值增加20%,而斜群桩基础桥梁结构的振动幅值降低10%;斜群桩基础模型阻尼比是直群桩基础模型的2倍。上覆水导致饱和砂土地基由受低频振动液化深度更大变为受高频振动地基液化深度更大,同时导致小震作用下促进超孔隙水压力发展,而大震作用下则反之。上覆水会增大桥梁上部结构的动力响应和桩身弯矩。上述研究结果可为覆水场地中桥梁工程抗震设计提供关键参考依据。     

乌鲁木齐区域高分辨率数值预报系统V2.0 预报性能客观检验

数值预报系统检验结果对预报产品的释用和系统的改进有着重要的作用。基于MET（Model Evaluation Tools）检验工具对乌鲁木齐区域高分辨率数值预报系统V2.0 (Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System—Central Asia V2.0,简称RMAPS-CA V2.0）在2021年各季节中的预报性能进行客观检验评估,主要检验了2m温度、10m风速、高空位势高度等要素,并与RMAPS-CA V1.0同期预报性能进行对比分析。（1）2m温度预报偏差在冬季和春季整体为负偏差,在夏季和秋季整体为正偏差;各个季节的平均预报偏差均在2℃以内,预报性能秋季最优,冬季最差。各个季节10m风速预报整体为正偏差且差异不大,平均误差在0.5-1.0 m/s之间,预报性能秋季最优,春季最差。（2）高空位势高度预报偏差在冬季整体为负偏差,在其余季节整体为正偏差,预报性能冬季最优,春季最差。高空风场预报偏差在冬季和春季400hPa以下为正偏差,400hPa以上为负偏差;夏季和秋季整体为负偏差,预报性能春季最优、夏季最差。高空温度场预报偏差在冬季整体为负偏差,其余季节整体为正偏差,预报性能春季最优、夏季最差。（3）降水晴雨预报效果较好,但除夏季外以空报为主;随降水阈值增大、TS评分减小,多以漏报为主,降水评分在冬季最高、夏季最低。从降水个例检验看,24h累计降水为大量和中量的国家站点预报性能有所提升,逐6h累计降水TS评分略有提升。（4）RMAPS-CA V2.0系统各要素预报偏差的变化特征与RMAPS-CA V1.0相似,预报能力整体上要优于RMAPS-CA V1.0。     

Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China

In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP- 4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.     

国外中期数值预报业务模式的性能及发展趋势

作者简单介绍了国内预报员较为熟悉的欧洲中期天气预报中心，美国国家气象中心和日本气象厅三个中期预报模式的性能及预报效果，包括近几年颇为流行的半拉格朗日时间积分方案，物理过程参数化方案的完善和改进，中期数值预报业务模式的发展趋势等。     

基于最优概率的中期延伸期过程累计降水量分级订正预报

采用ECMWF集合预报降水量资料和中国降水量观测资料,研发了基于最优概率的过程累计降水量分级订正预报(OPPF)技术,并在遵循总体技术思路的基础上设计出三种不同的OPPF计算方案(OPPF1、OPPF2、OPPF3),继而选用2015—2017年汛期(5—9月)中国91次区域性强降水过程进行回报试验和预报效果对比评估,结果表明:(1)在中期延伸期预报时效(96~360小时),对强降水和有无降水的预报效果,三种OPPF均明显优于集合平均(EMPF)和控制预报(CTPF);对中等以上或较强以上强度降水的预报效果,OPPF1和OPPF3明显优于CTPF、与EMPF基本接近。(2)三种OPPF相比,OPPF3的预报效果较OPPF1总体略胜一筹,两者均好于OPPF2。(3)预报效果存在明显的地域差异,南方地区强降水预报的TS评分明显大于北方地区,且OPPF3预报效果明显优于EMPF;在96~240小时预报时效,东北地区东部OPPF3强降水的预报效果也明显好于EMPF。      

Differences between CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models in Simulating Climate over China and the East Asian Monsoon

We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period1979–2005. All 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably well.Compared with earlier CMIP5 models, current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases, a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient, a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability, and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern Asia. Pairwise comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon. The ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain aspects. Both the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects.     

中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估

地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台,其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代,最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上,总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点,初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能,分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后,结合国际态势,从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。     

A multidirectional conditional spectrum

This paper presents a procedure to generate multidirectional conditional spectra (MDCS) that allow for the characterisation of seismic demands at different angles of incidence. Being conditional on a particular period and its direction of maximum response, it is considered to be a natural evolution of the conditional spectrum to account for the effects of directionality, that is, the variation of seismic demands as a function of the angle of incidence of ground motions, which can have a significant effect on the performance of different kinds of structures. The three main components needed for the generation of MDCS are explained in detail. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using different sampling methods to assess the effects of incorporating the correlation between demands at different orientations for the same oscillator period, and a novel correlation model is proposed for this purpose. The statistical characteristics of MDCS, their relation with the conditional spectrum, the advantages of the MDCS over previous definitions of orientation‐specific spectra, and prospective future developments are discussed.