IRS-P5卫星影像提取DEM及其地学应用

基于高分辨率遥感卫星数据提取DEM技术已广泛应用于地学研究中,但基于IRS-P5立体像对提取DEM的研究应用目前还比较少。主要介绍了IRS-P5卫星获取立体像对的工作原理,立体像对提取DEM原理、方法及精度评定,列举了该技术在地学研究中的应用实例及其应用前景以及存在的问题。结果表明,在良好的地面控制点的支持下,IRS-P5立体像对提取的DEM平面和高程精度均可满足国家山地1∶1万地形图测图规范要求,在地学研究中具有广阔的应用前景。     

中国区域ERA5和MERRA-2再分析资料计算Tm的精度分析

以中国区域89个探空站2017年资料为参考值,对ERA5和MERRA-2再分析资料积分计算的Tm的精度进行评估,并分析2种资料计算的Tm的bias和RMSE的时空变化特性。结果表明：1）以探空站资料为参考值,ERA5和MERRA-2再分析资料计算的Tm的年均bias分别为0.41 K和0.10 K,年均RMSE分别为1.26 K和1.34 K。2）2种资料计算的Tm的bias和RMSE具有相似的时空变化特性,时间上总体表现为夏季精度高、冬季精度稍低,但ERA5再分析资料计算的Tm的bias在全年均表现为正值,而MERRA-2再分析资料计算的Tm的bias在夏季表现为负值,其余时间表现为正值;在空间上,2种资料计算的Tm的bias和RMSE在高程上无明显变化特性,但在纬度上RMSE均表现出随纬度增加而逐渐变大的趋势,总体保持在2.5 K以内。     

Precipitation-surface temperature relationship in the IPCC CMIP5 models

Precipitation and surface temperature are two important quantities whose variations are closely related through various physical processes. In the present study, we evaluated the precipitation-surface temperature (P-T) relationship in 17 climate models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the IPCC Assessment Report version 5. Most models performed reasonably well at simulating the large-scale features of the P-T correlation distribution. Based on the pattern correlation of the P-T correlation distribution, the models performed better in November-December-January-February-March (NDJFM) than in May-June-July-August-September (MJJAS) except for the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and the performance was generally better over the land than over the ocean. Seasonal dependence was more obvious over the land than over the ocean and was more obvious over the mid- and high-latitudes than over the tropics. All of the models appear to have had difficulty capturing the P-T correlation distribution over the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in MJJAS. The spatial variability of the P-T correlation in the models was overestimated compared to observations. This overestimation tended to be larger over the land than over the ocean and larger over the mid- and high-latitudes than over the tropics. Based on analyses of selected model ensemble simulations, the spread of the P-T correlation among the ensemble members appears to have been small. While the performance in the P-T correlation provides a general direction for future improvement of climate models, the specific reasons for the discrepancies between models and observations remain to be revealed with detailed and comprehensive evaluations in various aspects.     

Water vapor transport and cross-equatorial flow over the Asian-Australia monsoon region simulated by CMIP5 climate models

The summer mean water vapor transport (WVT) and cross-equatorial flow (CEF) over the Asian-Australian monsoon region simulated by 22 coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were evaluated. Based on climatology of the twentieth-century simulations, most of models have a reasonably realistic representation of summer monsoon WVT characterized by southeast water vapor conveyor belt over the South Indian Ocean and southwest belt from the Arabian Sea to the East Asian. The correlation coefficients between NCEP reanalysis and simulations of BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, FGOALS-s2, MIROC4h and MPI-ESM-LR are up to 0.8. The simulated CEF depicted by the meridional wind along the equator includes the Somali jet and eastern CEF in low atmosphere and the reverse circulation in upper atmosphere, which were generally consistent with NCEP reanalysis. Multi-model ensemble means (MME) can reproduce more reasonable climatological features in spatial distribution both of WVT and CEF. Ten models with more reasonable WVT simulations were selected for future projection studies, including BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, FGOALS-s2, FIO-ESM, GFDL-ESM2G, MRIOC5, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM-1M. Analysis based on the future projection experiments in RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 show that the global warming forced by different RCP scenarios will results in enhanced WVT over the Indian area and the west Pacific and weaken WVT in the low latitudes of tropical Indian Ocean.     

A new weighting function for estimating microwave sounding unit channel 4 temperature trends simulated by CMIP5 climate models

A new static microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4 weighting function is obtained from using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical multimodel simulations as inputs into the fast Radiative Transfer Model for TOVS (RTTOV v10). For the same CMIP5 model simulations, it is demonstrated that the computed MSU channel 4 brightness temperature (T4) trends in the lower stratosphere over both the globe and the tropics using the proposed weighting function are equivalent to those calculated by RTTOV, but show more cooling than those computed using the traditional UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) or RSS (Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California) static weighting functions. The new static weighting function not only reduces the computational cost, but also reveals reasons why trends using a radiative transfer model are different from those using a traditional static weighting function. This study also shows that CMIP5 model simulated T4 trends using the traditional UAH or RSS static weighting functions show less cooling than satellite observations over the globe and the tropics. Although not completely removed, this difference can be reduced using the proposed weighting function to some extent, especially over the tropics. This work aims to explore the reasons for the trend differences and to see to what extent they are related to the inaccurate weighting functions. This would also help distinguish other sources for trend errors and thus better understand the climate change in the lower stratosphere.     

Evaluation of spring persistent rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 AGCM simulations

The progress made fi＇om Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP3 to CMIP5） in simulating spring persistent rainfall （SPR） over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs）. The majority of the models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation was about 1mm d-1 in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the northward displacement was about 3°, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d-i and the northward shift decreased to 2.5°. The SPR features a northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4°N/°E. The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope （0.2°N/°E）, whereas the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unre- alistic zonally-distributed slope. The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two ther- mal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current AGCMs.     

CMIP5部分模式气温和降水模拟结果在北半球及青藏高原的检验

利用北半球和青藏高原的观测资料,通过趋势分析、量值比较及小波分析等方法对已提交历史模拟结果的8个模式进行了比较.结果表明,各模式对北半球气温年变化模拟的较好,一般7、8月气温最高,1月气温最低,不存在相位差问题.各模式模拟的历史气温年际和年代际变化趋势比较一致,气温最大相差2.8℃以上;模拟的1850-2005年气温平均最高和最低值相差可达1.8℃左右;除1个模式外,其余模式都能较准确地模拟出至少有一次气温突变.对北半球降水的模拟,各模式都模拟出了降水的季节变化,但从年际变化趋势来看,4个模式模拟的降水为增大趋势,4个为减小趋势.对青藏高原的模拟,从变化趋势与观测气温的对比来看,8个模式中,除2个模式通过了0.05显著性水平检验外,其余均通过了0.01显著性水平检验;各模式都模拟出了青藏高原的降水中心,但对降水量值的模拟相差较大.     

基于ERA5再分析数据的中国邻近海域极端波高特征分析

极端波浪对沿海地区基础设施有着深远的影响,了解它们的变化规律是进行海岸带风险分析和灾害预防的基础。文章基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting,ECMWF)第五代再分析数据集(ECMWF reanalysis v5,ERA5),对中国邻近海域1979~2018年间极端波高展开时空特征分析,并统计了40 a厄尔尼诺系数,利用广义极值分布(generalized extreme value,GEV)函数探究了近40 a厄尔尼诺现象对我国海域极端波高的影响,结果显示:统计1979~2018年整个研究区域前2%极端波浪年均值在6~10 m间浮动,且整体趋势递增,在四季趋势变化中,春夏极端波高增长趋势较秋冬高,且波动明显,在年际极端波高变化趋势中有较大波动时大多伴随着厄尔尼诺或是拉尼娜现象的发生,结合厄尔尼诺现象对GEV分布中位置参数的影响分布图和极端波高年、季节际趋势变化分布图,厄尔尼诺现象影响大的地区极端波高大多呈现增长趋势,表明厄尔尼诺现象对极端波高有较高影响。     

NONHYDROSTATIC NUMERICAL SIMULATION FOR THE“96.8”EXTRAORDINARY RAINSTORM AND THE DEVELOPING STRUCTURE OF MESOSCALE SYSTEM

During the period of 3—5 August 1996(for short “96.8”),an extraordinary rainstorm eventoccurred in Henan,Hebei and Shanxi Provinces in China,resulting in severe flood catastrophe.Synoptic analyses indicated that the stable gross col field and the interaction between a northwardmoving typhoon(down into low pressure)and its east lateral Pacific subtropical high were thelarge-and meso-scale circulation conditions of the “96.8” extraordinary rainstorm.The mesoscaletyphoon-low and its specific dynamical and thermodynamical structures were directly related to thisrainstorm event.The nonhydrostatic version of mesoscale numerical model MM5 was used toconduct investigation of numerical simulation for this case.The simulation with the full physicalprocesses of nonhydrostatic version MM5 was basically possessed of a capability to reproduce thegenesis,development and evolution of the large-scale and meso-α scale synoptic systems.Thesimulative results using a two-way interactive nesting procedure revealed that the typhoon-low waspossessed of an intensive coupled mechanism between the dynamical and thermodynamical fields,namely,the developing typhoon-low was possessed of a structure of the.cyclonic vorticity columnwith warm center and high humidity,the vorticity column on the lower levels was the moistconvective instability and negative moist potential vorticity structure:the intensive ascendingvertical motion and the intense divergence on upper levels and intensive convergence on the lowerlevels as well as the development of the convective cloud cluster were intercoupling:the intensesouthern wind jet companied by the typhoon-low was not only the interaccompanying andintercoupling condition of the development and maintenance of the typhoon-low and convectivecloud cluster,but also was the transportable belt of the moisture source and heat energy of the“96.8”extraordinary rainstorm.The analysis of simulative results of precipitation indicated thatthe distribution of the rainfall belt and rainfall rate was basically consistent with that of theobservation in spite of some rainfall centers less or larger than those of the observation for coarseor fine mesh domain,respectively.