Projected Increase in Probability of East Asian Heavy Rainy Summer in the 21st Century by CMIP5 Models

In the summer of 1998, heavy rainfall persisted throughout the summer and resulted in a severe prolonged flooding event over East Asia. Will a similar rainy summer happen again? To date, many studies have investigated projected changes in the seasonality or daily extreme precipitation events over East Asia; however, few studies have focused on the changes in extreme summer-averaged East Asian rainfall. This type of summer is referred to as a "heavy rainy summer(HRS)" in this study, and an investigation of future changes in its probability is performed by analyzing CMIP5 model outputs in historical climate simulation(HIST) and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.All models project increased probabilities of HRS by a factor of two to three. The projected East Asian summer rainfall(EASR)(EASR_(RCPs)-EASR_(HIST)) in both climatology and HRS is expected to intensify significantly. The increased EASR could be attributed to significantly intensified water vapor transport(WVT) originating from the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) and the eastern subtropical North Pacific(SNP), which is a result of the thermodynamic component. The WVT from the TIO would supply more moisture for EASR because of its stronger intensity and faster rate of increase.Meanwhile, the EASR anomaly in HRS relative to climatology(EASR_(HRS)-EASR_(CLM)) would increase by approximately 11%–33%. In HIST, the associated WVT anomaly, caused only by the dynamic component, converges moisture from adjacent land and ocean. However, under the RCPs, the WVT anomaly from the TIO, resulted from the thermodynamic component, would appear and increase by a factor of three to be comparable to the WVT anomaly from the eastern SNP.The latter would result from the dynamic component but increase by only half.     

基于模式优选的21世纪中国气候变化情景集合预估

未来气候变化情景预估是制定气候变化应对和适应策略的科学基础。本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的30个气候模式的模拟数据,通过评估各模式对历史气候变化的模拟能力,筛选出模拟区域气候变化的最优模式组合,进而建立偏最小二乘回归（PLS）集合预估模型,据此利用最优模式模拟结果预估区域温度和降水变化情景。通过与历史数据的对比,研究发现本文基于最优模式建立的PLS集合预估模型不仅优于传统的多模式集合平均,而且也优于利用全部模式建立的PLS集合预估模型,体现了模式优选过程的重要性。本文基于优选模式的PLS集合预估模型预估结果表明：① 21世纪各区域温度将持续上升,且冬半年升温速率总体大于夏半年,北方地区升温速率总体高于南方地区;RCP 4.5排放情景下温度上升先快后慢,转折点出现在21世纪中期,RCP 8.5排放情景下,呈持续增加趋势,至21世纪末的升温幅度约为RCP 4.5情景的2倍。② 21世纪各区降水变化均呈显著增加趋势,并表现出高排放情景大于低排放情景,少雨区大于多雨区的特征,但是降水增加过程伴有明显的年代际波动。对比发现,传统的等权重集合平均全部模式（EMC）方法预估的中国夏季变暖速率高于冬季,且降水基本呈线性增加,有悖于全球变暖的基本特征及中国降水具有鲜明的年代际变化特征的基本认识。因而,本文预估的温度和降水变化特征均更符合中国气候变化的基本规律。     

乐家湾锑矿床元素地球化学特征及其地质意义

论述了粤北乐家湾锑矿床元素地球化学特征,指出F,B,As,Si代表早期硅化岩形成阶段的元素组俣和Cl,S,Sb,Hg代表晚期Sb工业富集阶段的元素组合,Cl在Sb的成矿作用中起着重要的作用。     

1-（4-硝基苯基）-3-（3-硝基-5-氯吡啶）三氮烯的合成及其与锌的显色反应

报道了1-(4-硝基苯基)-3-(3-硝基-5-氯吡啶)三氮烯(NPNCPDT)的合成及其与锌的显色反应研究。在Triton X-100存在下,pH 10.5的Na2B4O7-NaOH缓冲溶液中,该试剂能与锌发生显色反应,锌与NPNCPDT形成摩尔比为1∶2的黄色配合物,在450 nm处有一最大正吸收,540 nm处有一最大负吸收。以450 nm为参比波长、540 nm为测量波长进行双波长测定,表观摩尔吸光系数为2.50×105L.mol-1.cm-1。锌量在0~480μg/L符合比尔定律。用拟定方法测定人发中的微量锌,方法精密度小于2.5%(RSD,n=6)。     

亚洲季风区海陆热力变化的观测分析及模拟评估

利用观测资料分析了亚洲季风区夏季海陆热力差异的变化特征。在此基础上,采用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5,CMIP5)20个模式的输出结果,对其进行了模拟评估。结果表明,亚洲季风区夏季陆地上空温度呈下降趋势,海洋上空呈升高趋势,海陆热力差呈减弱趋势。虽然模式模拟的海陆热力差也呈减弱趋势,但陆地和海洋上空温度均呈上升趋势。模式对陆地上空温度趋势模拟较差的原因是对青藏高原上空的温度模拟偏低。进一步分析表明,对海陆热力差异模拟相对较好的模式对亚洲季风系统模拟较好,而较差的模式对亚洲季风系统模拟也较差。     

AH5井区八道湾组砂质和砾质储层孔隙结构特征及评价

准噶尔盆地AH区块侏罗系八道湾组属于低饱和度、特低孔特低渗储层,孔隙结构研究较为模糊,导致储集层产能评价认识不清。为对研究区目的层孔隙结构进行定量化描述及识别,利用岩心观察、普通、荧光、铸体薄片、扫描电镜、高压压汞、岩心油水饱和度、相渗及物性分析等资料对孔隙结构复杂特征进行定量表征及分类,并对相渗特征进行分析。结果表明:八道湾组储层可分为砂质和砾质储层,储层孔隙类型包括剩余粒间孔、粒间和粒内溶孔、铸模孔、微裂缝以及晶间孔,喉道类型包括孔隙缩小型、缩颈型、片状、片弯状以及管束状喉道。在油水饱和度实验分析和压汞基础参数分析基础上,将砂岩和砾岩储层根据分形维数对孔隙结构综合定量划分为Ⅰ—Ⅲ类,砾质储层产能相对砂质储层更好。     

基于模糊本体的时空数据模型构建方法研究

针对时空推理及信息查询中存在的时空模糊性问题,通过模糊隶属函数对模糊本体中的模糊概念和关系进行描述,在模糊本体5W2H语义概念模型的基础上构建了FGO-5W2HST时空数据模型,研究了本体方法下的时空推理的模糊扩展,并将上述研究应用于旅游景点信息领域,从而对时空推理查询及语义信息检索过程进行模拟验证。     

Effects of light intensity on Opsin4, Opsin5, and Pax6 expressions of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius

The detection of light intensity and subsequent phototaxis are essential for the fitness of sea urchins in intertidal and shallow subtidal waters, where light intensity varies in accordance with the depth and other hydrographic conditions. The molecular basis of photoresponse, however, remains largely unknown. We compared the expression of SiOpsin4, SiPax6, and SiOpsin5 among tube feet, coelomocytes, gonads, and gut of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius. All three genes showed the significantly highest expression in tube feet. To test whether r-opsin genes (for example, Opsin4) and Pax6 in tube feet, rather than chaopsin genes (for example, Opsin5), are involved in the molecular responses to light intensity, we investigated the expression of Opsin4, Pax6, and Opsin5 among four light intensities. Both Opsin4 and Pax6 expressions were significantly higher in the sea urchins at 1,500 lx than at 100, 300, and 700 lx, indicating a co-upregulation of Opsin4 and Pax6 expressions in sea urchins exposed to the high light intensity (for example, 1,500 lx). However, there was no significant difference of SiOpsin5 expression among the four light intensity groups. Consistent with our hypothesis, there was no significant difference in either Opsin4 or Pax6 expression between the two light intensity environments (low light intensity environment: 50–100 lx; high light intensity environment: 330–1400 lx). This indicates that positive phototaxis and negative phototaxis probably regulate the expression of Opsin4 and Pax6 to a similar level when sea urchins are exposed to the high and low light intensities, respectively. The present study provides new insights into the molecular basis of light intensity detection and subsequent phototaxis of eyeless species.     

机载应答机对GPS—L5信号的影响

探讨了机载应答设备对GPS—L5接收机的电磁干扰状况。通过机载试验,测量了L5波段电磁频谱,分析测量数据后得到若干能量谱图。并通过与远距离监控装备／塔康导航设备（DME／TACAN）干扰信号的比较得到应答设备比它们具有更小干扰的结论。     

使用物理方法反演中国陆地雨强和水凝物垂直结构

使用MM5模式模拟了11个降水个例,获得中国陆地的降水廓线,由蒙特卡罗辐射传输模式计算其上行辐射亮温,构成初始云一辐射数据库.采用对照表方法从中获得Db_ml和Db_m2两个数据集,作为GPROF反演算法的先验数据集.对2007年7月的3次强降水过程的地面雨强进行反演,与微波成像仪(TMI)及NESDIS、GSCAT、...