Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area (Findikli,NE of Turkey) by likelihood-frequency ratio and weighted linear combination models

Landslides are very common natural problems in the Black Sea Region of Turkey due to the steep topography, improper use of land cover and adverse climatic conditions for landslides. In the western part of region, many studies have been carried out especially in the last decade for landslide susceptibility mapping using different evaluation methods such as deterministic approach, landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses. The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Findikli district, Rize) located at the eastern part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey by likelihood frequency ratio (LRM) model and weighted linear combination (WLC) model and to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, landslide inventory map of the area were prepared for the years of 1983 and 1995 by detailed field surveys and aerial-photography studies. Slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from drainage lines, distance from roads and the land-cover of the study area are considered as the landslide-conditioning parameters. The differences between the susceptibility maps derived by the LRM and the WLC models are relatively minor when broad-based classifications are taken into account. However, the WLC map showed more details but the other map produced by LRM model produced weak results. The reason for this result is considered to be the fact that the majority of pixels in the LRM map have high values than the WLC-derived susceptibility map. In order to validate the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with the landslide inventory map. Although the landslides do not exist in the very high susceptibility class of the both maps, 79% of the landslides fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the WLC map while this is 49% for the LRM map. This shows that the WLC model exhibited higher performance than the LRM model.     

National flood discharge mapping in Austria

This article presents the approach and the results of a study in which 30, 100 and 200 year return period flood discharges were estimated for 26,000 km of Austrian streams. Three guiding principles were adopted: combination of automatic methods and manual assessments by hydrologists to allow speedy processing and account for the local hydrological situation; combination of various sources of information including flood peak samples, rainfall data, runoff coefficients and historical flood data; and involvement of the Hydrographic Services to increase the accuracy and enhance the acceptance of results. The flood discharges for ungauged catchments were estimated by the Top-kriging approach with manual adjustment to the local flood characteristics. The adopted combination approach proved to be very efficient both in terms of the project time required and in terms of the accuracy and acceptability of the estimated flood discharges of given return periods.     

Effect of Cyclic Loading Frequency on Undrained Behaviors of Undisturbed Marine Clay

Based on a series of cyclic triaxial tests, the effect of cyclic frequency on the undrained behaviors of undisturbed marine clay is investigated. For a given dynamic stress ratio, the accumulated pore water pressure and dynamic strain increase with the number of cycles. There exists a threshold value for beth the accumulated pore water pressure and dynamic strain, below which the effect of cyclic frequency is very small, but above which the accumulated pore water pressure and dynamic strain increase intensely with the decrease of cyclic frequency for a given number of cycles. The dynamic strength increases with the increase of cyclic frequency, whereas the effect of cyclic frequency on it gradually diminishes to zero when the number of cycles is large enough, and the dynamic strengths at different frequencies tend to the same limiting minimum dynamic strength. The test results demonstrate that the reasons for the frequency effect on the undrained soil behaviors are beth the creep effect induced by the loading rate and the decrease of sample effective confining pressure caused by the accumulated pore water pressure.     

南海温跃层基本特征及一维预报模式

根据现有1907—1990年南海大面调查资料,按1°×1°网格进行逐月的标准水层的温度统计。在此基础上采用3次样条函数的插值方法计算出整个南海温跃层的深度、厚度和强度并予以相应分析。分析表明,南海温跃层主要分为两种类型:第一类为辐射型,主要分布在南海北部的陆架区内,季节变化显著;第二类为不同水体叠置型,主要分布在广大深水区,它长年存在,季节变化较小。一种温跃层的一维积分预报模式,该模式是基于忽略热平流作用和水平热扩散的前提下,从局部热平衡方程出发,建立了受海面热收支及风混合作用下求解温度垂直分布及温跃层的时空变化。在南海北部水深约300m处进行了单站温跃层后报,结果表明,温跃层的深度、厚度和强度的相对误差均在30％以下。     

Internal generation of waves: Delta source function method and source term addition method

In this study, we investigate two internal wave generation methods in numerical modeling of time-dependent equations for water wave propagation, i.e., delta source function method and source term addition method, the latter of which has been called the line source method in literatures. We derive delta source functions for the Boussinesq-type equations and extended mild-slope equations. By applying the fractional step splitting method, we show that the delta source function method is equivalent to the source term addition method employing the energy velocity. This suggests that the energy velocity should be used rather than the phase velocity for the transport of incident wave energy in the source term addition method. Finally, the performance of the delta source function method is verified by accurately generating nonlinear cnoidal waves as well as linear waves for horizontally one-dimensional cases.     

Field observations of waves generated by passing ships: A note

This short contribution reports the results of a field study on the nearshore characteristics of waves generated by both conventional and high speed passenger ferries. The field observations took place in the late summer of 2005, at a beach close to the port of Mytilene (Island of Lesbos, Greece), and involved the visual observation of ship waves, using digital video recordings and image processing techniques. The results showed that passage of the fast ferry was associated with a longer, more complex and energetic nearshore event; this event not only did include higher nearshore waves (up to 0.74 m) and was organised in different wave packets, but it was also an order of magnitude longer (∼ 680 s) than the conventional ferry event. Regarding the effects on beach sediment dynamics, the fast ferry waves were estimated to be very efficient in mobilising the nearshore sediments in contrast to those of the conventional ferry. The fast ferry service appears to generate daily prolonged nearshore events, which contain waves with higher energy than those expected from the normal summer wind wave regime of the area; these events also include some high and very steep waves, which can be particularly erosive. Therefore, fast ferry wakes may have considerable impacts on the seasonal beach sediment dynamics/morphodynamics and the nearshore benthic ecology, as well as they may pose significant risks to bathers, affecting the recreational use of the beaches exposed to fast ferry traffic. Finally, the study has shown that satisfactory field observations of the nearshore characteristics of ship-generated (and wind) waves can be obtained using inshore deployments of calibrated poles, digital video cameras and appropriate image processing algorithms.     

Generation of random waves in time-dependent extended mild-slope equations using a source function method

We develop techniques of numerical wave generation in the time-dependent extended mild-slope equations of Suh et al. [1997. Time-dependent equations for wave propagation on rapidly varying topography. Coastal Engineering 32, 91–117] and Lee et al. [2003. Extended mild-slope equation for random waves. Coastal Engineering 48, 277–287] for random waves using a source function method. Numerical results for both regular and irregular waves in one and two horizontal dimensions show that the wave heights and the frequency spectra are properly reproduced. The waves that pass through the wave generation region do not cause any numerical disturbances, showing usefulness of the source function method in avoiding re-reflection problems at the offshore boundary.     

A method to estimate the forces exerted by internal solitons on cylindrical piles

Internal soliton is the large amplitude wave existing in the pycnocline, induced by internal tide in the condition of special bottom topography. During its propagation process, the induced disturbance can bring about strong convergence of sea water and sudden strong current (wave-induced-current), which can cause severe threat to the ocean engineering structures, such as oil drilling platform and pipeline. In this paper, Morison’s empirical method, modal separation and regression analyses are introduced to estimate the forces and torques exerted by internal soliton on cylindrical piles. As an example, a limited set of observational data recording a passage of the internal soliton near Dongsha Islands is used to estimate the horizontal velocity and its acceleration in a vertical section for computing the force and torque on a supposed pile, and the estimation results are reasonable. It is shown that, the higher number of the modes retained in the calculation, the better the estimation of velocity profile fits the observational one. A better overall approximation to the real solution can be reached if there are more observational current data acquired in a whole vertical profile.     

Dynamic properties of green water event in the overtopping of extreme waves on a fixed dock

A statistical model is developed to predict wave overtopping volume and rate of extreme waves on a fixed deck. The probability density function for the volume and rate of overtopping water are formulated based on the truncated Weibull distribution with the assumption of local sinusoidal profile for small amplitude waves. Sensitivity to the wave nonlinearity parameter and deck clearance is discussed. The statistical model is compared to laboratory data of the instantaneous free surface elevation measured in front of a fixed deck, and overtopping volume and overtopping rate measured at the leading edge of the deck. The statistical theory compared well with the measured exceedance probability seaward of the deck. The model prediction of the exceedance probability of deck overtopping gave qualitatively good agreement for large overtopping values.