长偶极大功率可控源电磁波响应特征研究

地球物理学中关于电磁波勘探研究通常采用的是地球半空间模型.然而,对于几十公里的有限长电缆源（长偶极源）,远距离电磁波场探测必须要考虑电离层的影响,它是一个全空间问题.关于包含电离层、空气层和地球介质（我们称“地-电离层”模式）的电磁波场特征的研究在国外较少,国内几乎是空白.本文采用全空间积分方程法首先对小尺度的可控源电磁波场特征进行了研究,由于此时电离层的影响可忽略,它应该和半空间成熟的CSAMT模拟结果一致,对比结果表明,二者是一致的,验证了全空间模拟方法的可靠性和有效性.随后进行了50 km长电缆电离层和空气层高度都为100 km的“地-电离层”模式大尺度电磁波场模拟,以探讨大尺度可控源电磁波场的特征.给定频率的“地-电离层”模式电磁场的衰减曲线表明长电缆远距离电磁波场由于受电离层的作用存在衰减逐渐变小的过渡场和衰减变小的波导场.为了探讨复杂介质“地-电离层”模式电磁波特征,对“地-电离层”模式的典型地盾和地台多层介质模型进行了数值模拟,得到了偶极源长度50 km、电流200A、收发距离远达1600 km和2500 km的合理的电磁场结果.最后,对一简单含油储层结构模型进行了长偶极、大功率、远距离电磁波场响应计算.储层横向不均匀复杂结构模拟的结果表明,考虑电离层和大气层的“地-电离层”模式大尺度深层复杂介质模拟时,电磁场对深部目标体仍有很好的异常响应.     

长偶极大功率可控源激励下目标体电性参数的频率响应

利用三维（3D）全空间积分方程准线性解作为数值模拟手段,对包含电离层、大气层和地球介质层的“地-电离层”典型异常目标体多层介质模型进行了数值模拟,得到了偶极源长度100 km、电流200 A、收发距离远达1600 km的合理的异常电性目标体的电阻率-频率响应结果.通过对不同埋深异常目标体的电阻率-频率特征的讨论,认为当考虑电离层和大气层的“地-电离层”大尺度深层横向不均匀复杂介质模拟时,电磁场对深部目标体仍有很好的异常响应,但当异常体电阻率及同一电阻率的岩石埋深不同时,其电阻率-频率的响应特征有很大不同,这正反映了不同岩石物性参数的电阻率-频率响应特征.文中结果表明从长偶极大功率源（WEM）激励的电磁场观测资料区分岩石的电阻率参数是可能的,这为利用WEM观测资料建立电性参数和岩石/地层参数经验关系奠定了基础.     

汶川M_S8.0地震对甘肃陇东地区的破坏影响与特征分析

在汶川MS8.0地震后甘肃陇东地区的详细灾害调查基础上,对该区地震破坏进行了分类研究,给出了各种建筑物及工程结构的破坏程度及破坏特征.结合该区独特的地质地理环境对产生地震破坏的原因进行了分析.认为该区地震破坏相对严重的原因除与建筑物本身质量及结构有关外,还与远震和地形影响的长周期效应及持时较长有关.     

磷灰石U-Th/He法——一种低温热年代计

回顾了U Th/He测年方法的发展过程 ,简要介绍了该方法测年的原理、分析流程和长α -粒子停止距离校正。然后介绍了近年来在磷灰石He扩散性研究及数值模拟方面取得的一些成果和磷灰石U Th/He热年代计在研究古地貌、岩体构造抬升、盆地热历史演化方面的应用。最后分析了U Th/He测年方法的优、缺点 ,说明这一方法既存在广阔的应用前景 ,又有待于进一步完善、提高。     

Nonlinear and 3D effects in leaky infragravity waves

In this paper, infragravity (IG) waves, forced by normally and obliquely incident wave groups, are studied using the quasi-3D (Q3D) nearshore circulation model SHORECIRC [Van Dongeren, A.R., I.A. Svendsen, 1997b. Quasi 3-D modeling of nearshore hydrodynamics. Research report CACR-97-04. Center for Applied Coastal Research, University of Delaware, Newark, 243 pp.], which includes the Q3D effects. The governing equations that form the basis of the model, as well as the numerical model and the boundary conditions, are described. The model is applied to the case of leaky IG waves. It is shown that the Q3D terms have a significant effect on the cross-shore variation of the surface elevation envelope, especially around the breakpoint and in the inner surf zone. The effect of wave groupiness on the temporal and spatial variation of all Q3D terms is shown after which their contribution to the momentum equations is analyzed. This reveals that only those Q3D coefficients, which appear in combination with the largest horizontal velocity shears make a significant contribution to the momentum equations. As a result of the calculation of the Q3D coefficients, the IG wave velocity profiles can be determined. This shows that in the surf zone, the velocity profiles exhibit a large curvature and time variation in the cross-shore direction, and a small — but essential — depth variation in the longshore direction.     

基于长短期记忆神经网络的风速超短期快速滚动预报技术

利用甘肃省某风电场2017—2020年测风数据,基于长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)模型,通过评估不同输入数据和模型时间窗口长度下的预报精度,设计一套适用于风电场的风速超短期快速滚动预报方案。结果表明：通过输入不同的特征变量,在风速的超短期(未来4 h内)预报中,风速自身变化起主导作用,模型输入变量中只加入各高度层的风速能得到更好的模拟效果。通过评估LSTM模拟时间窗口长度L对模拟效果的影响,当时间窗口长度L≤24 h时,模拟效果较好,说明超短期风速变化主要和风速自身临近时刻的变化有关;当L>24 h时,模拟效果快速下降,说明过长的L会削弱模拟能力,降低模拟精度。通过分析LSTM在未来4 h内的风速模拟能力,发现随着预报时长的增加,模拟精度逐步下降,但在未来2 h内的风速均方根误差RMSE均小于2 m·s^-1,结果较为理想,且该方法对计算资源要求不高,经济实用性强,在业务中具有较高的应用潜力。     

Long period variations of the motion of a satellite due to non-resonant tesseral harmonics of a gravity potential

The main effects of tesseral harmonics of a gravity potential expansion on the motion of a satellite, are short period variations as well as long period variations due to resonances. However, other smaller long period and secular variations can arise from interactions between tesseral terms of the same order. The analytical integration of these effects is developed, using numerical evaluation of Kaula eccentricity and inclination functions. Examples for some Earth's geodetic satellites show that secular effects can reach a few decameters per year. The secular variations can even reach several hundred of meters per year for the Mars natural satellite Phobos.     

冷空气对夏季高原涡移出高原后长久与短期活动影响的对比分析

本文利用NCEP/NCAR-FNL再分析资料、历史天气图和青藏高原低涡切变线年鉴,通过分析1998~2016年高原涡活动情况,对在高原以东活动时间大于96 h的高原涡（长持续涡）和在高原以东活动时间不大于30 h的高原涡（短持续涡）,进行了环流与冷空气活动特征与位涡诊断的对比分析,得出了长、短持续涡的环境场、冷空气活动特征,揭示了冷空气活动、高空锋区对长、短持续涡的影响。结果表明:（1）长持续涡移出高原后是在受较明显冷空气影响情况下加强并持续的,短持续涡则没有明显受冷空气影响。长持续涡所处的低槽较深,槽后的冷温度槽较明显,副热带高压（简称副高）偏南;短持续涡处在分裂槽中,有冷舌,副高偏北;说明影响低涡活动的天气系统强,槽后的冷温度槽明显,副高偏南是低涡能较长时间持续的重要环流条件。（2）长持续涡不仅受到较强冷平流的影响,还处在有狭长的干冷与暖湿空气相遇的地带,使涡区极易产生对流不稳定和低涡扰动,利于低涡加强并持续,短持续涡则远不及长持续涡。（3）长持续涡移出高原后受两个不同方向冷空气影响,涡区内一般伴有两个高位涡中心区,而短持续涡的只有一个高位涡中心区,且位涡值比长持续涡小,长持续涡活动过程中的斜压性也比短持续涡强。另外,长持续涡活动过程中相应的高空急流较强,在增强、东伸、南压作用下,造成200 hPa高空有高位涡下传到低涡,而短持续涡所伴的西风急流平直、弱,造成了短持续涡只受到400 hPa高位涡下传的影响。（4）冷空气影响高原涡维持的作用有:使影响高原涡活动的天气系统加强;使高原涡斜压性增强、对流不稳定增强;使高空有高位涡下传至低涡附近层次,造成低涡区域正位涡异常,垂直涡度发展,低涡加强。     

Exploring determinants of the extent of long distance commuting in Australia: accounting for space

Previous research exploring the impacts of long distance commuting (LDC) or, more generally, mining on host regions, struggles to explain the variability of these impacts over time and across space. This article argues that spatial effects should be accounted for explicitly in order to improve the predictive power of contemporary research. We study the extent of LDC in a region in a spatial model disaggregating Australia into 325 subregions. We find evidence that space is an important factor in explaining the extent of LDC in a region, which challenges the validity of studying LDC impacts on host regions in isolation. With regards to the determinants of the extent of LDC, we find that residential attractiveness of a region influences the extent of LDC in a region; the size of the pool of unemployed in a region does not.     

Long-term variation of solar UVB (290–330 nm) observed at the earth's surface

During solar cycle 21 (1976–86), the primary solar irradiance at 300 nm was steady during 1980–82 and thereafter decreased until 1986 by only 2–3%. The stratospheric ozone in middle latitudes had a QBO of 3–4% in this interval but the long-term ozone trend was less than 3% per decade, which could result in a UVB increase of only 5–6% per decade. Thus, the combined effect of changes in primary solar irradiance and ozone changes could be an increase of 5–6% in UVB, observed at ground during 1977–81 and a steady level during 1981–86. During 1976–86, the average cloudiness changed by less than 5% indicating UVB changes of 5% or less on this count. The aerosol level was almost constant during 1976–82 and increased abruptly in 1982 due to the E1 Chichon eruption and decayed slowly unitl 1986. Thus, due to aerosols only, the UVB was expected to be constant during 1976–82, to decrease sharply in 1982 and to recoup slowly thereafter.Measurements of clear-sky solar UVB at ground made at Jungfraujoch (Swiss Alps, 47°N, 8°E) during 1981–89 and at Rockville, USA (39°N, 77°W) were not comparable between themselves and did not follow the above expected patterns. Neither did the all-day R-B meter UVB measurements at Philadelphia, USA (40°N, 75°W) and Minneapolis, USA (45°N, 93°W). We suspect that some of these measurements are erroneous. This needs further detailed scrutiny.