Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.     

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.     

丹阳天王寺边坡稳定性评价及防治措施

针对苏南地区典型露采边坡的地层岩性及地质构造特点,以极限平衡理论为基础,运用GeoStudio软件中的SLOPE/W模块和VADOSE/W模块计算分析江苏丹阳天王寺边坡在天然工况、暴雨工况及地震工况下的稳定性。结果表明:天然工况下,潜在滑动面分布范围最小,稳定性最高,存在滑动的危险性;暴雨工况下,潜在滑动面分布范围有所增大,稳定性降低,边坡滑动的可能性较大;地震工况下,潜在滑动面分布范围最广,稳定性最低,边坡滑动的可能性很大。基于上述结果,提出防治措施。     

三峡库区四方碑滑坡稳定性与变形趋势预测

三峡水库建成后,库水位周期性涨落和暴雨产生的渗流作用导致大量古滑坡的复活或新滑坡的发生。以库区近水平层状结构的四方碑滑坡为例,依据库水位实际调动,将水位从175 m至145 m不同降速与50年一遇暴雨进行工况组合,计算4种工况下滑坡的稳定性及破坏概率。然后采用Geo-studio软件的Sigma模块对滑坡进行变形模拟,运用R/S分析方法判断滑坡的变形持续性,并结合野外调查情况,综合评价分析四方碑滑坡的稳定性。结果表明:滑坡在各工况下整体均处于基本稳定状态,具有低危险性;变形模拟结果显示滑坡前缘位移最大,与野外调查情况一致;各监测点Hurst指数均介于0.5~1,表明时间序列具有正持续性,在研究的时间限度内滑坡的局部破坏增强,应在汛期加强对滑坡前缘的巡查和预警。     

A geometric-based approach for road matching on multi-scale datasets using a genetic algorithm

Object matching is used in various applications including conflation, data quality assessment, updating, and multi-scale analysis. The objective of matching is to identify objects referring to the same entity. This article aims to present an optimization-based linear object-matching approach in multi-scale, multi-source datasets. By taking into account geometric criteria, the proposed approach uses real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA) and sensitivity analysis to identify corresponding objects. Moreover, in this approach, any initial dependency on empirical parameters such as buffer distance, threshold of spatial similarity degree, and weights of criteria is eliminated and, instead, the optimal values for these parameters are calculated for each dataset. Volunteered geographical information (VGI) and authoritative data with different scales and sources were used to assess the efficiency of the proposed approach. According to the results, in addition to an efficient performance in various datasets, the proposed approach was able to appropriately identify the corresponding objects in these datasets by achieving higher F-Score.     

中国西部寒区流域冰川水文调节功能研究

冰川作为固体水库以“削峰填谷”的形式显著调节径流丰枯变化,冰川的水文调节功能对于中国西北干旱区至关重要。使用现有VIC-CAS模型模拟得到中国西部寒区2014—2100年径流预估数据,从趋势和波动变化相结合的视角,基于径流变差系数法,构建了冰川水文调节指数（Glacier_R）,分析了9个寒区流域冰川径流变化的稳定性,详细剖析了历史时期（1971—2010年）和未来到21世纪末这些流域冰川水文调节功能的强弱变化。结果表明：历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,除长江流域外,青藏高原其余流域的冰川径流减小时间节点为2020s,西北内陆河流域则为2010s。历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下至21世纪末,尽管西部寒区大部分流域的冰川径流呈减少趋势,但波动幅度减小或无明显变化,冰川径流稳定性增强或无变化。总体上,西北内陆河流域的冰川水文调节功能较高,青藏高原流域的冰川水文调节功能较低。RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,至21世纪末,西部寒区各流域冰川水文调节功能均呈现减弱趋势,西北内陆河流域减弱更加显著,如RCP4.5情景下,木扎提河冰川水文调节功能降幅达25.4%,而青藏高原各流域的冰川水文调节功能一直处于较低水平。从年代际变化来看,1970s—2010s是寒区流域冰川水文调节功能较强的时期,1980s和2000s两个时段冰川水文调节功能尤强;RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,未来到21世纪末,冰川调节功能明显减弱。减弱的时间节点不同,最早为1970s,最晚为2020s。     

金沙江白格滑坡残留体稳定性分析与防治对策

金沙江白格滑坡在经历了2018年10月和11月的2次滑动堵江后,在其后缘仍存在K1、K2和K3等3处规模较大的残留崩滑体,并有再次失稳堵江的可能。目前关于残留体稳定性的研究还存在较大争议,多从影响因素及成因机制等方面进行定性分析,其结果依赖于评价者的经验,差异较大。在野外调查的基础上,针对白格滑坡所在区工程地质条件及其残留体变形特征,选取坡高、坡度、坡面形态、临空面、地下水出露、裂缝发育和变形等7个因素作为评价因子,基于模糊综合评判模型,运用层次分析法对白格滑坡残留体进行分区稳定性评价,并提出相应的防治对策。评价结果表明:K1与K2残留体稳定性较差;K3残留体基本稳定,与实际调查状况较吻合。研究结果可为同类型滑坡的评价与防治提供参考。     

冻融循环下加筋膨胀土边坡稳定性模型试验

控制边坡在冻融循环中的劣化作用,可保障季节冻土区域膨胀土边坡长期稳定。为确定土工格栅对膨胀土边坡在冻融循环过程中的稳定效果与工程意义,本文开展了膨胀土边坡模型试验,对比冻融过程中边坡内土压力、含水率、位移、温度变化。结果表明：土工格栅可约束膨胀土冻融裂缝,使裂缝发育更为均匀一致,同时减小边坡位移;加筋材料能抑制边坡水分迁移与热传导并减小土压力变化;对膨胀土边坡加筋处理可显著降低含水率波动幅值,从而减小膨胀土受含水率变化引发的胀缩劣化;不同于普通黏土,膨胀土边坡冻融循环中呈现冻缩融胀特点,而边坡加筋可有效提升冻土区膨胀土边坡的冻融稳定性,具有工程应用价值。     

地理探测器在判别滑坡稳定性影响因素中的应用

高山峡谷区是滑坡灾害频发地区,随着气候变化和人类活动加剧,滑坡呈多发、频发态势。本文选择坐落于横断山高山峡谷区的西藏江达县作为研究区,利用野外调查获取的85个滑坡数据,选取坡度、河流密度、地貌类型、降水量、距断层距离、道路密度、地震动峰值加速度、岩性等8个稳定性影响因素,运用地理探测器对滑坡稳定性的影响因素进行了探测。结果表明:（1）按滑坡体体积划分等级,江达县滑坡主要以中、小型滑坡为主;按其稳定性划分,50%以上的滑坡处于稳定状态;按危险等级划分,以Ⅲ级、Ⅳ级为主;江达县滑坡主要沿河流与道路分布,全县地面调查发现85处滑坡全部分布于河流附近,其中71.76%的滑坡分布于道路两侧。（2）江达县滑坡稳定性的主要影响因子为地貌类型、河流密度、道路密度和距断层距离,其贡献率分别为0.501,0.477,0.465,0.332;当影响因子两两相互作用时,因子解释力总是大于单个因子对滑坡稳定性的解释力,即当两种影响因子相互作用时,对于滑坡的失稳具有促进作用。     

基于理想点-可拓云模型的隧道围岩稳定性评价

为了对隧道围岩稳定性进行准确评价并解决研究过程中存在的模糊性和随机性以及评价指标不相容的问题,减少单一的主客观赋权法所带来的误差,将云模型引入可拓理论中,利用可拓理论能够实现矛盾问题向相容问题转化的特点和云模型具有处理事物双重不确定性的优势并结合理想点组合赋权法对隧道围岩进行稳定性评价研究。通过文献调研、数据统计的方式,选取具有代表性的6个指标组成隧道围岩评价指标体系,用理想点法赋予评价指标组合权重,并构建可拓云模型对隧道围岩稳定性进行综合评价。通过将此方法应用于工程实例并与其他方法对比,结果表明:基于理想点-可拓云模型的隧道围岩稳定性评价方法能够减少评价过程中存在的不确定性问题,克服单一赋权方法的不足,具有良好的适用性,可以应用于实际工程中。