纵向和横向同时约束AVO反演

为了提高AVO（amplitude versus offset）反演结果的精度和横向连续性,本文提出了一种新的AVO反演约束方法,该方法结合贝叶斯原理和卡尔曼滤波算法实现了对反演参数纵向和横向的同时约束.文章首先结合反演参数的纵向贝叶斯先验概率约束和反演参数的横向连续性假设建立了与卡尔曼滤波算法对应的AVO反演系统的数学模型,然后将该数学模型代入卡尔曼滤波算法框架,利用卡尔曼滤波算法实现了双向约束AVO反演.二维模型测试和实际数据测试结果表明,相对于单纯的纵向贝叶斯先验概率约束,双向约束能更准确地刻画参数的横向变化,得到更准确、横向连续性更好的反演结果.

     

不同大尺度强迫条件下考虑初始场与侧边界条件不确定性的对流尺度集合预报试验

研究了不同大尺度强迫条件下的暴雨个例中,考虑不同尺度特征的初始扰动与侧边界扰动相互作用构造对流尺度集合预报的可行性,为进一步构建“自适应”于不同强对流天气的对流尺度集合预报系统提供依据。结果表明,在大尺度强迫显著的个例1中,以大尺度扰动信息为主的动力降尺度的增长趋势较集合转换卡尔曼滤波(ETKF)更为显著,且总扰动能量在预报中后期超过集合转换卡尔曼滤波,而在大尺度强迫较弱的个例2中,集合转换卡尔曼滤波扰动能量始终高于动力降尺度。此外,当大尺度强迫显著时,初始扰动与侧边界扰动相匹配会产生相互促进的作用,而不匹配时初始扰动会在预报中后期抑制侧边界扰动的发展,当大尺度强迫较弱时,即使是互相间不匹配的初始扰动与侧边界扰动也能在大部分预报时段起到相互促进的作用,说明初始扰动与侧边界扰动的相互作用机制不仅与天气形势相关,也与二者是否匹配挂钩,另外,扰动的发展特征同样依赖于天气形势;从集合离散度的角度来看,当大尺度强迫明显时,侧边界扰动的作用会在更短的时间内取代初始扰动,从而对离散度起到主导地位;两种初始扰动方法相比,集合转换卡尔曼滤波在多数情况下对总离散度的贡献均大于动力降尺度;从降水量预报及概率预报情况来看,大尺度强迫明显的个例可预报性更高,且各集合成员间的差异较小,大尺度强迫较弱的个例则相反,且当两种初始扰动方案与侧边界扰动相结合时,较仅侧边界扰动均有一定提高。      

Analysis of Astex-Stratocumulus Observational Data Using a Mass-Flux Approach

A mass-flux approach is applied to observational data obtained in a convective boundary layer topped with stratocumulus clouds. The observational data were obtained from aircraft measurements during the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX). A conditional sampling method is used to calculate average updraft and downdraft values. The vertical fluxes calculated with the mass-flux approach are found to be proportional to the real (measured) fluxes, with a proportionality factor being about 0.6. This value is predicted by theory for two variables having a joint Gaussian distribution function; proportionality factor = 2^-1 0.637. The horizontal fractional entrainment and detrainment rates calculated from the data ( 1–2 × 10^-2 m^-1) are an order of magnitude higher than the rates obtained by large eddy simulations for cumulus convection ( 2–3 × 10^-3 m^-1) and two orders of magnitude higher than those used in modelling cumulus convection with a mass-flux scheme in an operational weather forecast model ( 3 × 10^-4 m^-1). A numerical mass-flux model for the thermodynamics was developed and showed that results are in good agreement when compared with measured profiles of the liquid water content.     

桥梁与隧道GPS网的设计与应用

计算了江阴公路长江大桥GPS网所能达到的精度,阐述了隧道GPS网布设的一般规律,对长梁山13km隧道实测GPS网进行了计算。从比较分析可以看出:1)GPS网能够满足桥梁和隧道工程的精度要求;2)在GPS网中适当加入一些高精度的边长有利于提高GPS网的精度和可靠性,并使得最后GPS网的尺度与施工测量时保持一致;3)GPS用于隧道与桥梁工程测量具有精度高、工期短、效益高等特点。     

Using postglacial sea level, crustal velocities and gravity-rate-of-change to constrain the influence of thermal effects on mantle lateral heterogeneities

Lateral heterogeneities in the mantle can be caused by thermal, chemical and non-isotropic pre-stress effects. Here, we investigate the possibility of using observations of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process to constrain the thermal contribution to lateral variations in mantle viscosity. In particular, global historic relative sea level, GPS in Laurentide and Fennoscandia, altimetry together with tide-gauge data in the Great Lakes area, and GRACE data in Laurentide are used. The lateral viscosity perturbations are inferred from the seismic tomography model S20A by inserting the scaling factor β to determine the contribution of thermal effects versus compositional heterogeneity and non-isotropic pre-stress effects on lateral heterogeneity in mantle viscosity. When β = 1, lateral velocity variations are caused by thermal effects alone. With β < 1, the contribution of thermal effect decreases, so that for β = 0, there is no lateral viscosity variation and the Earth is laterally homogeneous. These lateral viscosity variations are superposed on four different reference models which differ significantly in the lower mantle viscosity. The Coupled Laplace Finite Element method is used to predict the GIA response on a spherical, self-gravitating, compressible, viscoelastic Earth with self-gravitating oceans, induced by the ICE-4G deglaciation model.Results show that the effect of β on uplift rates and gravity rate-of-change is not simple and involves the trade-off between the contribution of lateral viscosity variations in the transition zone and in the lower mantle. Models with small viscosity contrast in the lower mantle cannot explain the observed uplift rates in Laurentide and Fennoscandia. However, the RF3S20 model with a reference viscosity profile simplified from Peltier's VM2 with the value of β around 0.2–0.4 is found to explain most of the global RSL data, the uplift rates in Laurentide and Fennoscandia and the BIFROST horizontal velocity data. In addition, the changes in GIA signals caused by changes in the value of β are large enough to be detected by the data, although uncertainty in other parameters in the GIA models still exists. This may encourage us to further utilize GIA observations to constrain the thermal effect on mantle lateral heterogeneity as geodetic and satellite gravity measurements are improved.     

褶皱相关断裂构造形成条件与发育机制:燕山中部露头尺度变形研究为例

总结了褶皱相关断裂发育机制的3个构造几何学模型:同心圆褶皱模型、膝折带褶皱模型和弯流褶皱模型。基于燕山中部中、新元古界地层中发育的5个露头尺度褶皱及其中、小型断裂构造的实例剖析,探讨了收缩变形过程中褶皱与断裂构造发育时序与褶皱相关断裂构造的产生机制。研究指出,规模与所在褶皱构造相当或略小的断裂构造当中,既有形成时间早于褶皱变形的断层,也有在褶皱变形过程中调节褶皱不同部位应变差异的褶皱相关断裂构造,而且卷入后期变形的早期断裂可能成为制约褶皱成核位置的影响因素,以及成为枢纽叠覆楔构造的形成方式之一。断层位移-距离曲线特征和断层与褶皱变形几何学、运动学关系分析,可用来判断断层、褶皱变形发生相对时序。认为影响褶皱相关断裂构造发育的机制主要有3种:(1)纵弯滑褶皱作用中,翼部顺层滑动受到限制而无法持续时,将通过断层向上切层的方式予以调节,从而形成翼部或转折端揳入逆冲断裂以及背离向斜和指向背斜逆冲断层;(2)各种因素导致的褶皱曲率变化是褶皱相关断裂产生的重要机制之一,褶皱曲率变化可由褶皱轴面的合并和新生直观反映,轴面合并引起褶皱曲率变化的层位,可能是诱发褶皱相关断裂,如背离向斜和指向背斜逆冲构造开始产生的重要部位;(3)能干性差异和强硬层之间距离较大的岩层组合发生纵弯褶皱变形时,软弱岩系在褶皱核部的聚集和逃逸,是迫使递进收缩的强硬层产生褶皱相关断裂构造的重要机制。     

攀西构造带Q值及其横向不均匀性

攀西地区受印度板块挤压欧亚板块的影响,地质构造复杂,断裂发育,岩浆活动强烈,地震活动频繁,深浅源地震分布不均。为研究攀西地区地震波能量的衰减情况,陈运泰等曾用天然地震研究了该地区地壳的平均Q值,在巧家和石棉地区,Q值分别为620和560,地壳中介质的品质因数Q偏低。本文则用爆炸地震观测资料,对该区的华坪-永胜地区和会理-会东地区的Q值做了计算,并讨论了Q值分布的横向不均匀性。     

华南及其海域三维速度分布特征与岩石层结构

利用华南（包括台湾省）及其邻近地区地震台网记录到的５１４个区域地震和７１６个远震事件的１９７７７条Ｐ波到时数据，用地震层析反演方法重建了华南及其海域（１８．０°－３１．５°Ｎ，１０６．５°－１３０°Ｅ）的三维速度图像。结果表明：１．华南及其海域地壳和上地幔广泛存在显著的横向不均匀性，它不仅出现在海域和陆区不同构造之间，同时也出现在陆区不同构造单元之间及其内部．２．地壳上部速度图像呈现出陆区和海域的速度差异：海域表现为低速，陆区的大部分表现为高速，而地处陆缘海的长乐－南澳断裂带恰好对应于陆区高速和海域低速块体分界处。陆区的一些主要断裂带几乎都显示在速度梯度带上．３．１１０ｋｍ深度处的速度图像表明，华南海域普遍显示低速；陆区除东南沿海褶皱系和华南褶皱系西部为低速外，均为高速．说明海域和陆内活动区在这一深度处已有软流层显示。４．研究区域内岩石层厚度变化显著，在陆区，扬子准地台与较为活动的褶皱系相比，具有较厚的岩石层。华南褶皱系内部岩石层厚度也十分不同，其东北部岩石层厚度大于西南部，说明华南褶皱系内部活动程度不同，东北部相对稳定，西南部较为活动。台湾以东沿大陆架、大陆坡岩石层逐渐抬升，至海洋下...