基于多智能体的土地利用模拟与规划模型

利用多智能体和元胞自动机对城市土地资源的可持续利用进行了规划。根据环境经济学资源分配原理和可持续发展理论,提出结合多智能体及元胞自动机的微观规划模型,在时间和空间上合理分配及规划城市土地资源的利用,以避免浪费不可再生的土地资源。该模型由相互作用的多智能体层、元胞自动机层和环境因素层组成,可方便地探索不同土地利用政策下城市土地利用发展情景,能够为城市规划提供有用的决策依据。以广州市海珠区为实验区,在可持续发展为前提的规划下,模拟了1995-2010年的城市扩展的动态变化,并讨论了在不同规划情景下城市土地资源的利用效率及合理性。     

基于耦合场分割算法的ANSYS二次开发及其应用

耦合场分割算法是当前研究的热点之一。本文首先对比研究了瞬态热传导方程和孔压增长消散方程,提出了一种适用于ANSYS二次开发的分割算法,并对2种不同的预测值计算模式对计算稳定性的影响进行了分析。然后,据之对ANSYS温度—结构耦合场模块进行了开发,形成了岩土工程有效应力计算模块。数值实验表明,这种方法具有较高的计算精度和良好的计算稳定性,并且能够充分利用现有程序资源,具有较高的工程应用价值。     

中国大陆结构地震反应观测系统布设研究

本文简要介绍了结构地震反应观测研究的意义。并以中国地震局防灾大楼和北京市人大办公大楼结构地震反应观测系统为布设实例,阐述了中国大陆地区结构地震反应观测系统的两种布设方式。对两种方式进行了分析,指出简化布设中存在的问题,并提出了布设原则,用于指导结构地震反应观测系统的布设。     

人类世可持续发展背景下的远程耦合框架及其应用

在全球一体化进程不断加深的背景下,国家与地区之间的联系日益紧密,产生了一系列跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的社会—经济—环境影响,远程耦合（Telecoupling,社会、经济、环境的远距离相互作用）科学概念和综合框架的提出为解决上述问题提供了新方法和新途径。为更好促进远程耦合综合框架的正确使用和规范推广,本文系统解析了远程耦合综合框架,厘清各组成部分的定义和功能,梳理了框架的应用现状;通过对3个中国典型案例的阐释,展示了远程耦合综合框架的使用方法、结果分析及由此得出的科学意义和政策价值;最后描述了远程耦合综合框架使用中需要重点关注的问题,并对其应用前景进行了展望。远程耦合综合框架的推广应用有助于以跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的视角,重新审视多个人类与自然耦合系统的相互作用,揭示隐藏的远距离地理空间作用的科学价值,服务于有关政策的制定和实施,促进全球社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。     

Satellite-derived rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Bogowonto Catchment,Central Java,Indonesia

Satellite rainfall products for landslide early warning prediction have been spotlighted by several researchers, in the last couple of decades. This study investigates the use of TRMM and ERA-Interim data, for the determination of rainfall thresholds and the prediction of precipitation, respectively, to be used for landslide early warning purposes at the Bogowonto catchment, Central Java, Indonesia. A landslide inventory of 218 landslides for the period of 2003–2016 was compiled, and rainfall data were retrieved for the landslide locations, as given by 6 ground stations, TRMM, and ERA-Interim data. First, rainfall data from the three different sources was compared in terms of correlation and extreme precipitation indices. Second, a procedure for the calculation of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence was followed consisting of four steps: i) the TRMM-based rainfall data was reconstructed for selected dates and locations characterized by landslide occurrence and non-occurrence; ii) the antecedent daily rainfall was calculated for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days for the selected dates and locations; iii) two-parameter daily rainfall-antecedent rainfall thresholds were calculated for the aforementioned dates; after analysis of the curves the optimum number of antecedent rainfall days was selected; and (iv) empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence were determined. The procedure was repeated for the entire landslide dataset, differentiating between forested and built-up areas, and between landslide occurrence in four temporal periods, in relation to the monsoon. The results indicated that TRMM performs well for the detection of very heavy precipitation and can be used to indicate the extreme rainfall events that trigger landslides. On the contrary, as ERA-Interim failed to detect those events, its applicability for LEWS remains limited. The 15-day antecedent rainfall was indicated to mostly affect the landslide occurrence in the area. The rainfall thresholds vary for forested and built-up areas, as well as for the beginning, middle and end of the rainy season.     

中国卫星海洋观测系统及其传感器(1988—2025)

全面收集1988—2025年中国地球观测卫星(和飞船)计划,包括历史的、运行中的和列入未来计划的。详细介绍风云卫星系列(FY-n)、海洋卫星系列(HY-n)、资源卫星系列(ZY-n)、环境卫星系列(HJ-n)、中国遥感卫星系列(CRS-n)、灾害监测星座/北京小卫星(DMC/BJ-1)、神舟飞船系列(SZ-n)和天宫空间站系列(TG-n)等8个卫星(和飞船、空间站)系列。这些卫星(和飞船、空间站)系列都提供对海洋的观测,从而构成中国卫星海洋观测系统。按装载的传感器分类,进而给出中国的海色、海表温度、海面高度、海面风场和合成孔径雷达(SAR)卫星观测系统。对中国海洋观测卫星与国际海洋观测卫星装载的传感器性能作了比较和讨论,指出差距。列出目前在轨运行的中国海洋卫星观测系统38个传感器及其类似的国外卫星传感器。     

我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议

本文给出了海啸定义及其它有关概念与术语,简要给出了我国及全球的海啸灾害.全面介绍了我国海啸监测能力、预警现状、研究成果以及有关国际合作的情况,重点介绍了我国自主研制的海啸数值模式,利用该模式我们模拟了2004年12月26日发生在印度洋大海啸以及假想的发生在我国南海的海啸对周边国家的影响.对海啸预警中存在的问题及未来急需开展的工作,作者也将一一给予阐述.     

Ecological classification of European transitional waters in the North-East Atlantic eco-region

A new methodology to classify European North-East Atlantic transitional waters into ecological types has been developed based on the most important hydrological and morphological features that are likely to determine the ecology of aquatic systems in transitional waters. Hydrological indicators help identifying if a transitional water area is dominated by fresh or sea water and/or by intertidal or subtidal areas, while morphological indicators allow an estimation of the complexity of the transitional water and the diversity of the habitats involved. Twelve transitional waters of the southern Bay of Biscay were classified using this methodology and the five hydro-morphological types obtained were validated with benthic macro-invertebrate data. Transitional waters with a complex morphology showed the highest values of species diversity, while those with a smaller tidal influence showed lower species diversity. The ‘Scrobicularia’ and ‘Abra’ assemblages, previously identified in the study area, were found to be related to different types of transitional waters. The ‘Abra’ assemblage only appeared in estuaries with a complex morphology and dominated by tidal influences, while the ‘Scrobicularia’ assemblage was detected in all the transitional waters except for a single coastal lagoon. This classification of transitional waters may therefore be useful to establish the biological reference conditions needed for European Directives.     

Tangled lines in New Zealand's quota management system: The process of including recreational fisheries

This article uses New Zealand as a case study of processes relating to the inclusion of recreational fisheries in modern fisheries management systems based on Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs). The New Zealand case highlights challenges governments often meet when attempting to integrate the recreational sector into fisheries management, including: (a) resistance to restrictions on what has historically been free-of-charge public access to fish for recreational purposes and (b) the fragmented character of the recreational sector, which makes it difficult to have recreational interests attend to their management role and responsibilities.     

Understanding marine ecosystem based management: A literature review

Ecosystem based management takes into account the interconnectedness and interdependent nature of ecosystem components and emphasizes the importance of ecosystem structures and functions which provide a range of services. The concept has now been adopted by many international agreements and national governments and is in the process of being implemented. This paper seeks to review the literature and to analyze the understanding of the subject. The term is defined and its implementation in fisheries and for all marine uses is analyzed. It has been concluded that to understand marine ecosystem based management one must consider ecosystems as complex adaptive systems which can show changes at higher levels from actions and processes occurring at lower levels. Recognizing that humans are part of these complex adaptive systems is vital in that their actions along with other processes can lead to transformations in ecosystem functioning. This recognition is also important to show how society can sustainably exploit these resources and that the inclusion of all stakeholders in the management process is necessary to legitimize the process. The uses of the precautionary principle along with adaptive management are seen to be useful tools in implementing these insights into the management of natural resources. Finally, the need for reducing consumption of fish is considered.