The landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region,China and the effects of water storage and rain on their stability

According to the statistics, there were about 1,736 landslides with the total volume of 1.339 × 10¹¹ m³ in the 100 km² area of upper reaches of the Yangtze River, in which about 94% of landslides are triggered by rain and water storage. Thus, based investigation of the results of the landslides in this region, this paper completed a systematic study on the effects of rainfall and water storage on the landslides in the region and found that the distribution of landslides over time and space are well correlated with the precipitation distribution in this region; landslides are also strictly controlled by the stratum, geological structure, river valley form, shore type, etc. Meanwhile, the pattern of water table variation of the three gorges reservoir will do have very serious impacts on the stability of the slopes in this region. All research results show that water storage and rainfall are the two important inducing factors that can cause a lot of large-scale landslides. Therefore, some effective control measures for water storage and rainfall should be taken so as to minimize the impacts of water on the stability of the slopes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Yangtze River, China.     

Assessment of some spatial and temporal issues in landslide initiation within the Río Aguas Catchment, South–East Spain

A research programme underway in south–east Spain has the overall aim of developing a long-term landscape evolution model for the Tertiary depositional basins that lie within the eastern part of the Betic cordillera. As part of the work it has become apparent that there are multiple natural hazards to development in the region, and the nature and distribution of these is presently under investigation. For one hazard, namely landsliding, a database of over 300 cases has been compiled within one defined 425 km² river catchment, namely the Río Aguas. Evaluation of the database has demonstrated that the contemporary distribution of landslides correlates with areas of steepest slopes across a range of the different lithologies. However, the “slope” component of the landscape is controlled by a wave of incision associated with a river capture event c. 100000 years ago which locally increased erosion by between 5 and 10 times. This event was a function of differential uplift between the depositional basins and resulted in over-steepened slopes within parts of the catchment which have yet to reach equilibrium in this evolving landscape.     

The slope movements within the Mondorès graben (Drôme, France); the interaction between geology, hydrology and typology

The Mondorès graben in the south-eastern French Alps is an uncommon structural feature, which originates in a complex polyphasic tectonic evolution. In contrast with its immediate surroundings, with hardly any huge landslides, the Mondorès graben is characterised by various types of landslides. A huge sagging caused part of the limestone cliff to subside some 50 m within 50 years. Two recent mud flows that occurred were considered a potential threat to some inhabited places downstream. The hydrologic aspects of the Boulc-Mondorès landslide resemble the geology: infiltration (and karst input?) in the rock-sliding zone and exfiltration in the marls resulting in slumps and mud flows. The mass movement interactions could be explained by a structural geology analysis with geodetic monitoring using different techniques. It is also shown that hydrochemistry as well as geophysical surveys are of importance in unravelling the hydrologic systems and the geological subsurface structures. The present paper aims at explaining the geological control of the different slides in view of estimating their potential danger. Understanding the geological structure and its evolution therefore is a necessary prerequisite.     

Predictive modelling of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal based on weights-of-evidence

Landslide hazard mapping is a fundamental tool for disaster management activities in mountainous terrains. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive power of weights-of-evidence modelling in landslide hazard assessment in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. The modelling was performed within a geographical information system (GIS), to derive a landslide hazard map of the south-western marginal hills of the Kathmandu Valley. Thematic maps representing various factors (e.g., slope, aspect, relief, flow accumulation, distance to drainage, soil depth, engineering soil type, landuse, geology, distance to road and extreme one-day rainfall) that are related to landslide activity were generated, using field data and GIS techniques, at a scale of 1:10,000. Landslide events of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to assess the Bayesian probability of landslides in each cell unit with respect to the causative factors. To assess the accuracy of the resulting landslide hazard map, it was correlated with a map of landslides triggered by the 2002 extreme rainfall events. The accuracy of the map was evaluated by various techniques, including the area under the curve, success rate and prediction rate. The resulting landslide hazard value calculated from the old landslide data showed a prediction accuracy of > 80%. The analysis suggests that geomorphological and human-related factors play significant roles in determining the probability value, while geological factors play only minor roles. Finally, after the rectification of the landslide hazard values of the new landslides using those of the old landslides, a landslide hazard map with > 88% prediction accuracy was prepared. The methodology appears to have extensive applicability to the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal, with the limitation that the model's performance is contingent on the availability of data from past landslides.     

Landslide hazards and mitigation measures at Gangtok, Sikkim Himalaya

Landslides and other mass movements are serious geo-environmental hazards in the Himalayas. Massive landslides killing tens of thousands of people with catastrophic damages have occurred in the Eastern Himalayan State of Sikkim, which shares common borders with Tibet, Nepal, and Bhutan. This paper describes the investigations carried out on recent landslides in Gangtok, Sikkim, India, with emphasis on the triggering mechanisms that have contributed to the release and creep of natural slopes in the region. It is believed that the intense rainfall in the region not only contributes to rapid erosion and weathering of the rock mass, but also increases the groundwater level that leads to reduction in the stability of natural slopes. A landslide instrumentation programme that includes placement of settlement pillars and piezometers is underway to predict the behaviour of landslides in the area.     

地震作用下边坡动力响应的数值模拟研究

汶川地震中在硬岩、次硬岩区域出现的一些大规模斜坡破坏现象超出了以往对地震作用下边坡稳定性问题的认识。本文使用FEPG有限元程序分析了水平和垂直2种不同加载方式作用下,经过不同的震动持续时间,不含裂隙岩质坡体内部的应力场和位移场的变化规律。得出的结论认为,在输入震动振幅为0.1m的加载作用下,岩质边坡内部的应力和位移均出现极值:在边坡的顶部及坡面上最大拉伸应力值大于100MPa,超过了花岗岩、灰岩等硬岩、次硬岩的抗拉强度,可能使岩体产生破裂发生崩塌、滑坡灾害。研究结果还表明,与水平方向振动加载相比,垂直方向振动加载产生的响应结果要大,边坡顶端一点的在垂直方向位移的峰值达到0.43m,远远超过了输入的震动振幅,垂直方向的震动是引起边坡的不稳定的主要因素。此外,震动持续时间越长,造成的变形和破坏就越大。     

Relationships among remotely sensed soil moisture,precipitation and landslide events

Landslides are triggered by earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, and heavy continuous rainfall. For most types of slope failure, soil moisture plays a critical role because increased pore water pressure reduces the soil strength and increases stress. However, in-situ soil moisture profiles are rarely measured. To establish the soil moisture and landslide relationship, a qualitative comparison among soil moisture derived from AMSR-E, precipitation from TRMM and major landslide events was conducted. This study shows that it is possible to estimate antecedent soil moisture conditions using AMSR-E and TRMM satellite data in landslide prone areas. AMSR-E data show distinct annual patterns of soil moisture that reflect observed rainfall patterns from TRMM. Results also show enhanced AMSR-E soil moisture and TRMM rainfall prior to major landslide events in landslide prone regions of California, U.S.; Leyte, Philippines; and Dhading, Nepal.     

Displacement properties of landslide masses at the initiation of failure in quick clay deposits and the effects of meteorological and hydrological factors

This study aimed to identify displacement properties of landslide masses at the initiation of failure and factors that affect the landslides activities in areas where quick clay is found. We set up a research site in a quick clay deposit area in Norway and monitored the displacements of landslide masses and meteorological and hydrological factors for a long period of time using an automatic monitoring system. The system collected data for two landslides that occurred at the site from the start of their movement until their ultimate collapse.

The two landslides that were monitored showed definite secondary and tertiary creep stages before they collapsed. One of the landslides moved from the secondary stage to the tertiary creep stage when another landslide occurred nearby. The tertiary stage of this landslide showed reconstruction of short primary, secondary, and tertiary creep stages. These phenomena suggested that (1) the stress at the end of the landslide mass was released during the nearby landslide, and (2) a new stress distribution was formed in the landslide mass. The critical strain differed for 14 times between the two landslide masses we monitored. The difference was likely attributable to the difference in the contents of quick clay, which shows small critical stress against slope failure, as well as topological factors.

Our analyses of the effects of hydrological and meteorological factors on landslides showed that the precipitation of 3 and 10 days before six slope failures as the final stages of the landslides that had occurred in the research area was no different from the mean precipitation of periods that showed no slope failure, suggesting that precipitation had no direct effects on the collapse of the landslide masses. On the other hand, the traveling velocities of the landslide masses during the secondary creep stage, which was prior to their collapse, were affected by the water content of the soil and precipitation (and the amount of snowmelt water), but was little correlated with the pore-water pressure of the quick clay layer. We also found that the presence of snow cover scarcely affected landslide movements.     

The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds

 Hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds separate combinations of daily and antecedent rainfall or of rainfall intensity and duration that triggered landslides from those that failed to trigger landslides. They are required for the development of landslide early warning systems. When a large data set on rainfall and landslide occurrence is available, hydrological triggering thresholds are determined in a statistical way. When the data on landslide occurrence is limited, deterministic models have to be used. For shallow landslides directly triggered by percolating rainfall, triggering thresholds can be established by means of one-dimensional hydrological models linked to the infinite slope model. In the case of relatively deep landslides located in topographic hollows and triggered by a slow accumulation of water at the soil-bedrock contact, simple correlations between landslide occurrence and rainfall can no longer be established. Therefore real-time failure probabilities have to be determined using hydrological catchment models in combination with the infinite slope model. Received: 15 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Exploring the magnitude–frequency distribution: a cellular automata model for landslides

Landslide magnitude–frequency curves allow for the probabilistic characterization of regional landslide hazard. There is evidence that landslides exhibit self-organized criticality including the tendency to follow a power law over part of the magnitude–frequency distribution. Landslide distributions, however, also typically exhibit poor agreement with the power law at smaller sizes in a flattening of the slope known as rollover. Understanding the basis for this difference is critical if we are to accurately predict landslide hazard, risk or landscape denudation over large areas. One possible argument is that the magnitude–frequency distribution is dominated by physiographic controls whereby landslides tend to a larger size, and larger landslides are landscape limited according to a power law. We explore the physiographic argument using first a simple deterministic model and then a cellular automata model for watersheds in coastal British Columbia. The results compare favorably to actual landslide data: modeled landslides bifurcate at local elevation highs, deposit mass preferentially where the local slopes decrease, find routes in confined valley or channel networks, and, when sufficiently large, overwhelm the local topography. The magnitude–frequency distribution of both the actual landslides and the cellular automata model follow a power law for magnitudes higher than 10,000–20,000 m² and show a flattening of the slope for smaller magnitudes. Based on the results of both models, we argue that magnitude–frequency distributions, including both the rollover and the power law components, are a result of actual physiographic limitations related to slope, slope distance, and the distribution of mass within landslides. The cellular automata model uses simple empirically based rules that can be gathered for regions worldwide.