Anisotropic damage of rock joints during cyclic loading: constitutive framework and numerical integration

This work describes a constitutive framework for modeling the behavior of rough joints under cyclic loading. Particular attention is paid to the intrinsic links between dilatancy, surface degradation, and mobilized shear strength. The framework also accounts for the important effect of shear‐induced anisotropy. The resulting approach is fully three‐dimensional and is not restricted to plane‐displacement kinematics. Both the governing formulation and an algorithm for implicit numerical integration are presented. While the proposed methods are general, we also postulate a specific model that is compared with experimental data. It employs relatively few free parameters but shows good agreement with laboratory tests. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1∶10000图库一体化数据的质量控制

根据1∶10 000图库一体化数据成果,对图库一体化数据生产过程中各个环节的质量控制进行探讨,提出了一体化数据的质量控制方法。     

The behavior of a multilayered porous thermo-elastic medium with anisotropic thermal diffusivity and permeability

With the aid of integral transform techniques, this paper presents an extended precise integration solution for thermal consolidation problems of a multilayered porous thermo-elastic medium with anisotropic thermal diffusivity and permeability due to a heat source. From the fundamental governing equations, ordinary differential equations are derived by employing Laplace–Hankel transforms. By applying the extended precise integration method, equations in the transformed domain can be solved, and the actual solutions are further obtained by adopting a numerical inverse transformation. The accuracy and feasibility of the proposed theory is demonstrated by contrastive analysis with existing studies. Finally, several examples are carried out to investigate the influence of heat source’s type, axial distance, burial depth of heat source, ratio of thermo-permeability, permeability anisotropy, thermal diffusivity anisotropy and stratification on the thermal consolidation process.     

遥感数据融合的进展与前瞻

数据融合是提升遥感影像应用能力的重要手段,一直是遥感信息处理与应用领域的研究热点。本文系统综述了遥感数据融合的进展与前瞻:首先对数据融合的层次与分类进行了总结和归纳,将遥感数据融合划分为同质遥感数据融合、异质遥感数据融合、遥感—站点数据融合、遥感—非观测数据融合4大类;在此基础上,重点针对时—空—谱光学遥感数据的融合,从多视超分辨率融合、多尺度融合、空—谱融合、时—空融合、时—空—谱一体化融合等方面进行了详细阐述;最后总结了遥感数据融合的前瞻研究方向,包括时—空—谱一体化融合的拓展、空天地观测数据的跨尺度融合、传感网环境下的在线融合、面向应用的融合方法等。     

多源数据协同定量遥感产品生产系统的领域模型

大数据技术中的一个难点是如何统筹多源异构的数据。在多源数据协同定量遥感产品生产系统中,不同传感器数据的协同使用为生产系统的各个环节都带来了许多的问题,例如异构数据文件的统一表示和调度,繁杂生产流程的统一抽象等。领域驱动设计是一种应对软件核心复杂性的设计方式。领域驱动是指在设计过程中经过不断的迭代,逐渐提炼出一套灵活优雅的领域模型。领域模型专注于分析问题领域本身,发掘重要的业务领域概念,并建立业务领域概念之间的关系。本文在不断实践的基础上提出了一组较成熟的领域模型,该模型用一种统一的方式解决了多源数据协同生产系统中各方面的问题,并显著地降低了系统集成的难度和工作量,且为新数据源的加入预留了灵活性。     

An Innovative Bias-Correction Approach to CMA-GD Hourly QuantitativePrecipitation Forecasts

This paper proposes a simple and powerful optimal integration (OPI) method for improving hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs, 0-24 h) of a single-model by integrating the benefits of different bias- corrected methods using the high-resolution CMA-GD model from the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Three techniques are used to generate multi-method calibrated members for OPI: deep neural network (DNN), frequency-matching (FM), and optimal threat score (OTS). The results are as follows: (1) The QPF using DNN follows the basic physical patterns of CMA-GD. Despite providing superior improvements for clear-rainy and weak precipitation, DNN cannot improve the predictions for severe precipitation, while OTS can significantly strengthen these predictions. As a result, DNN and OTS are the optimal members to be incorporated into OPI. (2) Our new approach achieves state-of-the-art performances on a single model for all magnitudes of precipitation. Compared with the CMA-GD, OPI improves the TS by 2.5%, 5.4%, 7.8%, 8.3%, and 6.1% for QPFs from clear-rainy to rainstorms in the verification dataset. Moreover, OPI shows good stability in the test dataset. (3) It is also noted that the rainstorm pattern of OPI relies heavily on the original model and that OPI cannot correct for deviations in the location of severe precipitation. Therefore, improvements in predicting severe precipitation using this method should be further realized by improving the numerical model’s forecasting capability.     

Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

     

四川地区多模式2m温度预报性能分析及集成方法研究

本文通过分析2017年9~12月四川地区ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格模式、GRAPES_GFS(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球模式和西南区域模式(South West Center-WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System, SWCWARMS)2m温度168h预报时效内的系统性偏差特征,采用滑动双权重平均法分别对三种模式温度预报产品进行偏差订正,并集成得到各时效2m温度的订正场,结果表明:(1)三种模式的预报存在明显的日变化,整体上EC模式的预报最优。(2)三种模式对于低温和高温的预报,在全省均大致呈现负的系统性误差,特别在高原及过渡区表现的尤为明显。(3)订正后三种模式的预报准确率显著提高,均方根误差减小1.4~2.5℃,大部分地区平均误差维持在±0.5℃之间,在系统性偏差较大的地区,订正效果更好。(4)两种集成方案预报结果接近,且均优于三种模式的订正预报。     

高时空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究

以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统（RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration）,对雷达四维变分分析系统（VDRAS）30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:（1）长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。（2）对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。（3）通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。      

"九五"数字化地震前兆台站整体接入因特网的研究

介绍了如何将"九五"数字化前兆台站设备整体接人因特网,提供了一种非常简便、实用的整体接人方案.台站原来的构成模式没有改变,台网中心和台站熟悉的原工作方式得到了保留,实现了台站网络化的目标,使现有台网在因特网环境下能够正常运行.它能够与"十五"新建的前兆台网进行集成,便于整个台网的统一管理.