关于频率电磁测深几个问题的探讨(七)——解析广义逆矩阵反演法

从目标函数的线性化出发,采用奇异值分解法求广义逆矩阵并适当加阻尼,用迭代法直接解超定方程实现改进广义逆矩阵反演。进一步从理论与实际结合上阐明改进广义逆矩阵反演法的灵活、稳定,它涵盖了多种反演方法的优点,又具有自身特点,在实际应中适应性强,并能提供一些辅助信息,可更好地评价解释结果。     

人工免疫系统与嵌入规划目标的城市模拟及应用

人工免疫系统(AIS) 具有强有力的计算能力, 可以通过免疫识别、克隆选择、免疫学 习、免疫记忆等功能来进行模式识别和自适应学习。AIS 所具有的自学习、自适应和记忆的能力非常适合于复杂地理过程的研究。而元胞自动机(CA) 是研究复杂系统非常方便和有效的工具。将人工免疫系统和元胞自动机相结合, 建立了城市演变的模拟和规划模型。该模型通过改变抗体的进化变异机制, 把规划目标嵌入到AIS 算法中, 抗体将会逐渐朝着规划目标“进化”, 从而模拟出基于不同规划情景的城市发展空间格局, 为城市和土地利用规划提供决 策支持。设计了6 种不同的城市发展方案, 利用该模型模拟了不同规划方案下珠江三角洲城市的发展情景(1988-2002 年)。并比较了不同模拟情景结果城市的紧凑性: “城市中心” 和 “城市中心-高速公路”发展模式的城市形态更为紧凑, 破碎度较低; 而“镇中心” 和“道路”发展模式形成的城市形态则比较凌乱和分散。模拟结果和分析表明: “城市中心-高速 公路”是珠江三角洲最适合的城市发展模式。     

自动建模客观分型方法在非汛期人工增雨中的应用

根据安徽省人工影响天气业务系统需要,利用NCEP 500 hPa高度场和风场格点资料及安徽省81站10年非汛期逐日降水资料,在客观分析天气形势基础上,结合预报员实践经验给出的不同系统影响安徽省时的关键区,计算机自动建模,形成逐日天气型日历,实现环流分型客观化。此方法识别条件实用,模型物理意义明确,自动化程度高,自动生成的逐日天气型日历,为安徽省非汛期人工增雨作业指挥系统提供了很好的天气预报参考依据。     

广西中短期极端温度客观预报方法研究

利用欧洲中心(ECMWF)数值预报产品和常规资料,应用MOS预报方法和多元线性回归技术,研究建立了广西90个站1~7d的最高、最低温度预报方程,试报检验效果较好,预报结果在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的,为业务提供了有效的省级客观预报指导产品,对误差特点进行了分析并提出了改进方法。     

应用6σ质量管理方法尝试评价多目标样品氯等项目检测质量水平

应用6σ质量管理方法评价X射线荧光光谱法测定多目标地球化学样品分析中4个日常监控土壤标准物质中Cl、S、总碳、N、Na₂O、MgO、Al₂O₃、SiO₂、P、K₂O、CaO、Ba、Ti、V、Cr、Mn、TFe₂O₃、Zn、Ga、Br、Pb、Th、Rb、Sr、Y、Zr、Nb等27个项目检测质量水平。研究结果显示,随着高精度、自动化仪器的应用,多目标样品分析多个项目的精密度、准确度都得到大幅度的提高,部分检测项目的性能已经达到6σ质量水平;但有少数项目如N、总碳、Cr 等低于3σ质量水平,其精密度准确度均需改进,分析性能有待进一步提高,建议更换检测方法。用6σ质量管理方法评价地质实验分析测试质量水平与地质实验室传统质量控制方法得出的结果具有一致性,其评价方法简便、量化、直观、具有一定的应用价值。     

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于客观分析的多源卫星叶绿素a浓度产品融合方法研究

本文基于Aqua/MODIS、Terra/MODIS和Envisat/MERIS多源卫星叶绿素a浓度产品,研究了客观分析融合方法,制作了西北太平洋海域(0°~50°N,100°~150°E)叶绿素a浓度融合产品,并从有效数据空间覆盖率和产品精度两个方面对融合方法进行了评价。与单传感器以及欧洲太空局发布的GSM模型业务化融合产品相比,客观分析融合产品空间覆盖率明显提高;与收集的2002-2012年间叶绿素a浓度实测数据比较,GSM模型业务化融合产品的匹配数据点为578个,偏差为-0.20 mg/m3,均方根误差为0.37 mg/m3,客观分析法融合产品的匹配数据点为1432个,偏差为-0.21 mg/m3,均方根误差为0.36 mg/m3。结果表明:本文研究的客观分析融合方法在保证融合产品精度的同时可显著提高产品的空间覆盖率,在海洋水色融合应用前景广阔。     

Water Cooperation Priorities in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Based on Cooperative Events Since the Mekong River Commission Establishment

The Lancang-Mekong River has attracted much attention from researchers, but the cooperation on water issues in this river basin has been limited, even after the establishment of the Mekong River Commission(MRC). Cooperation on water resources has been determined as one of the key priority areas in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, but there are no details of targets. In order to establish the priorities of water cooperation under the mechanism, we adopted nine categories to classify the objectives of 87 water cooperation events based on the ‘Lancang-Mekong Water Cooperative Events Database' from 1995 to 2015. Based on the occurrence of cooperative events, cooperative objectives, cooperative scales, and approaches to cooperation, we conducted statistical, correlation, and text analyses. Our analyses indicated the following results: under the impact of economic conditions inside and outside the river basin, full cooperation appeared more difficult than bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Each of the partners adopted different preferences for cooperation targets. Cooperation with more definite objectives was easier to establish than cooperation with broader and more complex objectives. The potential objectives for water cooperation were navigation, hydropower, joint management, data sharing, flood control and water use. Because hydropower development is controversial, and because water cooperation is avoided by most existing regional cooperation mechanisms due to its complexity, we suggest the following priority areas for water cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. 1) Navigation and flood control/drought relief are attractive objectives for all the riparian countries across the whole watershed. 2) Data sharing should be a priority for cooperation in the watershed due to its laying the foundation for the equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary waters. 3) Hydropower is an objective best implemented mainly through bilateral cooperation, and on tributaries.     

Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections

As reported in former studies, temperature observations obtained by expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) and mechanical bathythermographs (MBTs) appear to have positive biases as much as they affect major climate signals. These biases have not been fully taken into account in previous ocean temperature analyses, which have been widely used to detect global warming signals in the oceans. This report proposes a methodology for directly eliminating the biases from the XBT and MBT observations. In the case of XBT observation, assuming that the positive temperature biases mainly originate from greater depths given by conventional XBT fall-rate equations than the truth, a depth bias equation is constructed by fitting depth differences between XBT data and more accurate oceanographic observations to a linear equation of elapsed time. Such depth bias equations are introduced separately for each year and for each probe type. Uncertainty in the gradient of the linear equation is evaluated using a non-parametric test. The typical depth bias is +10 m at 700 m depth on average, which is probably caused by various indeterminable sources of error in the XBT observations as well as a lack of representativeness in the fall-rate equations adopted so far. Depth biases in MBT are fitted to quadratic equations of depth in a similar manner to the XBT method. Correcting the historical XBT and MBT depth biases by these equations allows a historical ocean temperature analysis to be conducted. In comparison with the previous temperature analysis, large differences are found in the present analysis as follows: the duration of large ocean heat content in the 1970s shortens dramatically, and recent ocean cooling becomes insignificant. The result is also in better agreement with tide gauge observations. On leave from the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency.     

体感温度客观分析方法研究

影响人体体感温度的气象要素主要包括温度、湿度、风以及太阳辐射,依据这些气象要素影响人体体感温度的原理,确定了平均气温与体感温度相同时的临界相对湿度、风速及太阳辐射值.以全国有水平面直接辐射曝辐量观测项目的77个气象台站的历年逐日4次定时观测资料为基础,把相邻两个白昼(夜间)的气温差作为因变量,相对湿度差、风速差、垂直辐射差(白昼)作为自变量,以旬为时问分辨率,建立了逐旬多元回归方程.各地所建立的逐句多元线性拟合方程拟合优度相当高,F统计量检验也充分证明线性回归方程总体成立,从气候意义、统计角度来看该方法都具有充分的可行性.