1998年长江巨洪与厄尔尼诺事件

1997～ 1 998年出现了 2 0世纪中最强的一次厄尔尼诺事件。根据长江洪水与厄尔尼诺事件的实测资料 ,指出 1 998年的长江巨洪与这次厄尔尼诺事件具有较密切的关系。同时讨论了厄尔尼诺事件影响长江洪水的物理途径 ,这对长江巨洪的长期及超长期预报具有较重要的指示作用     

Inverse reconstructions of ecosystem flows in investigating regime shifts: impact of the choice of objective function

Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.     

0220号热带风暴(米克拉)特征分析

南海是热带气旋活动较为频繁的地区之一。该地区因其独特的地理环境和复杂的热带大气环流系统，在热带气旋预报工作上存在一定的困难。本文在分析一些气象图表资料的基础上，对2002年第20号热带风暴(米克拉)的形成、发展及消亡进行了探讨和研究。主要从形成的背景环流，气旋的结构等方面入手，总结出一些该气旋所具备韵特有流场，从而为以后的南海自生热带气旋预报工作积累一定经验。     

Numerical study of the influence of Kuroshio Current on the thermocline in the sea area around Taiwan Island

1 INTsoDUcrIONTemperature is one of the most impoFtant essential factors of ocean, and its verticalstructure, especially the phenomenon ofthermocline, is concerned by military and manufacturepractices at all times. There are two classes of research methods for thermocIine, statisticmethod and numerical method. In recent years, more attention has been paid to the latterwhich becomes the primary development direction. Since Munk et al (1948) pot forward1-D model of thermocline at steady sta…     

冲绳海槽中西部边缘区沉积物成因和沉积环境

本文根据１９９６年“中－法合作东海计划”在冲绳海槽中西部边缘区所取柱状样岩芯沉积物粒度分析资料,对该区沉积物特征进行研究。结果表明,火山沉积和富含生物的半远洋深海软泥沉积是本区的主要特征。以４８１ｃｍ为界,上、下两层沉积物截然不同,可能是沉积物的来源不同或者是水动力条件的差异。该区主要受火山活动的影响,其次是黑潮、大洋风暴     

冲绳海槽热流机制浅析

冲绳海槽是一个高热流区，平均热流值极高，但不均匀，实测最小值与最大值相差三个数量级以上，结合海槽地区的构造和地球物理特征，探讨了导致这一高而分散热流特征的多种因素。包括异常壳幔结构。海底热液循环以及地下水对流等，并分析了相应的控制机制。     

利用卫星遥感资料对南海北部陆架海洋表层温度锋的分析

利用7年(1993～1999)月平均的SST卫星遥感资料，分析了南海北部陆架区域海洋表层温度锋在一年中的逐月变化特征，表明南海北部陆架海洋表层温度锋存在明显的季节内变化。结合风场的卫星遥感资料，分析了东北季风对南海北部陆架温度锋的影响，表明东北季风风速的增加有利于温度锋强度的增强。通过对黑潮南海流套入侵较强的1999年2月与流套入侵较弱的1998年2月的SST卫星遥感资料的对比分析，考察了黑潮南海流套的入侵对南海北部陆架温度锋的影响，结果表明黑潮流套的较强入侵能够增加陆架温度锋的强度，对温度锋的走向也会产生一定的影响。     

黑潮和中国近海环流

本文根据历史资料总结和讨论了黑潮对中国近海环流影响的基本结果,指出经巴士海峡进入南海和沿台湾海峡向北运动的黑潮分支,其年际变化明显,并认为该黑潮分支的运动状况对中国近海特别是南海和东海南部的中、下层环流影响显著,需要作进一步的调查研究。     

分层海洋的内孤立波

本文从流体力学基本方程组出发,在非地转条件下导得了分层海洋的内孤立波方程—Kbv和mKdv方程,证实了在非地转条件下,一类海洋非线性波动是可以严格满足内孤立波方程的。在地转条件下采用f平面近似导出了KdV方程的演化形式一有源KdV方程,地转的影响含于源项中。由初步的分析得出,f对KdV方程的影响是微弱的。由已得的KdV和mKdV方程的解可知,内孤立波与线性波有着本质差别。     

厦门岛市区机动车流的航空遥感监测

本文介绍了厦门岛市区机动车流遥感监测的实施目的和方法，通过航空影像有关题信息解译与实例、专题图件编制以及统计资料的对比分析，认为：目前厦门岛市区交通主要存在着机动车增长过速、道路狭窄和会计室场少且分布不合理等三个方面的问题，文中提出了相应的建议。体现了航空遥感对于中、大比例尺城市动态监测快速有效的特点。