基于地统计学和GIS的福建省降雨侵蚀力空间格局

运用地统计学,结合GIS技术研究了福建省降雨侵蚀力空间分布特征.采用变异函数定量描述空间分布结构特征和析取克里格法进行最优插值,结果表明:福建省降雨侵蚀力变异函数采用指数模型模拟较好,有显著的空间结构性特点,且具有中等空间相关性;分形维数表明降雨侵蚀力表现出一定的方向性特点,在NW-SE向相关性较好;从Kriging插值结果可知,析取克里格插值优于普通与简单克里格插值,降雨侵蚀力较大值分布于研究区域的西北和东北部地区.     

基于钻孔数据的三维可视化快速建模技术的研究

为了实现三维建模过程的智能化以及自动化,以及使复杂地质体三维建模过程变得简单,针对CAD图形资料编写了能够直接将地表、钻孔等地质信息读入到数据库的DXF接口程序,提出了一种利用GA-Kriging插值手段对地层属性进行插值并最终实现三维可视化快速建模的方法,并且在此基础上基于VTK图形库实现了三维建模、等值线绘制、钻孔显示、切片以及特定地层的提取以及体积的计算等功能。在编写Kriging插值算法时,为了实现块金常数、变程等常数取值的自动化、最优化,应用GA智能算法求解。最后,通过地铁隧道的一个工程实例,对建模方法以及相应的算法模块进行了验证,表明方法具有一定的优越性。     

Kriging插值和序贯高斯条件模拟算法的对比分析

本文对Kriging插值与序贯高斯条件模拟值的算法联系进行了推导,并将两种计算结果和原始数据的统计参数作了对比。结果表明,Monto-carlo方法求得的序贯高斯条件模拟值经数学变换后等同于已知数据和此前模拟数据共同参与的Kriging插值结果与一个随机偏差的和,该随机偏差的均值为0,方差为Kriging误差方差。最优性条件导致Kriging插值结果的方差较原始数据降低了1个Kriging误差方差,造成Kriging平滑效应,其空间变异函数值降低,但自协方差函数值不变。序贯高斯条件模拟避免了平滑效应,其方差、变异函数和自协方差函数均不变,而其模拟值的误差方差较Kriging误差方差增加了1倍,表明1次随机模拟值的误差比Kriging插值大。然而,多次随机模拟值的平均值与Kriging插值的地理制图效果近似,可以弥补局部估值误差大的不足。因此,在应用中,Kriging插值是提供局部最优估计的方法,但却低估了全局的空间变异。而序贯高斯条件模拟的优点,在于提供若干等可能概率的模拟结果以进行估值的不确定性评价,并再现全局的空间可变性。     

Remote Sensing Monitoring of Glacier Changes in the Western Region of Tanggula Mountains in Recent 25 Years

This paper focuses on revealing the status quo and variation of glaciers in the western region of Tanggula Mountains. The ratio threshold, NIR water identification and visual interpretation were used to extract the boundary of glaciers based on Landsat data (TM/ETM+/OLI) from 1990 to 2015. In particular, the NIR water identification is a new method to extract glaciers from water, which is suitable to improve the traditional method of ratio threshold. This study used spatial interpolation method to evaluate temperature and precipitation changes. The kriging interpolation method was adapted to manipulate and to extract the appropriate data based on ten weather stations. Comparing to the variations and characteristics of glaciers and climate change from 1990 to 2015, we concluded that glacial retreat in the western region of Tanggula Mountains was serious. The glacier area reduced from 1 693.65 km² to 1 490.81 km², respectively, in 1990 and 2015, in general, approximately 202.84 km² (11.98%) of glacier area has been retreated in the last 25 years. Moreover, the rate of glacier decline after 2000 was much faster than the last decade of the 20th century. In addition, the decreased area of glaciers in the lower altitude basins below 5 000 meters occupied 94.84% of the total change area while the glacier above 5 000 meters almost had no change. The kriging interpolation of the meteorological data indicated that the southeast of the study area was damp and hot while the northwest was cold and dry. The characteristic of temperature distribution from the northwest to the southeast presented from low to high, and precipitation increased in the first of the study period and then decreased but both of them were not very significant. In short, the temperature of study area was increased more prominently since 2000, while the precipitation change was very weak. The mean annual temperature and precipitation of 1980-1989a, 1990-1999a, and 2000-2013a were -3.53 ℃, -3.20 ℃, -2.22 ℃, and 384.49 mm, 354.27 mm, 428.13 mm, respectively. The study found that the glacier change was consistent with temperature variation in spite of the adverse effects of increased precipitation. Therefore, the research concluded that the precipitation change was not more significant comparing to temperature change. In other words, the main reason of the rapid decrease of glaciers in study area was likely due to the rise of temperature.     

综合空间相关性和区域分异性方法的上海海洋环境监测站位优化

综合无机氮和活性磷酸盐的海水水质类别现状进行空间分区,拟合无机氮和活性磷酸盐全局半变异函数和局部半变异函数。通过留一交叉检验方法确定统计推断方法,无机氮采用分层克里金插值方法,使得平均绝对误差和误差方差最小;活性磷酸盐采用普通克里金插值方法,使得平均绝对误差和误差方差最小。原则上调整现有站位数的10%,综合考虑对无机氮和活性磷酸盐插值标准差的变化影响,以及对不同水质类别面积的影响,确定去掉冗余的7个历史站位。7个站位均分布在劣四类水区域的长江口南支、北支、和杭州湾北部近岸区域,这些区域站点密集,水体中各要素含量变化不大,水团混合较均匀。优化删减掉的7个站位调整到三类和四类水质分区中,或者无限制区域的优化调整,发现调整优化的站位主要分布在水质类别变化过渡的区域,因此,不同水质类别的分界带以及海域边界处是站位调整优化的关键区域。     

克立金储量计算方法在平果铝土矿中的应用

岩溶堆积型铝土矿是我国铝土矿床的新类型 ,文章利用探采资料以及不同勘探网度、不同储量方法计算结果 ,运用对比方法探讨克立金法在该类矿床储量计算方面的应用条件和效果。     

A Kriging-based approach for locating a sampling site—in the assessment of air quality

Air quality assessment studies have either high sampling or analyses costs. In these studies the representation of a city by a single sampling point is still a serious problem, especially in the metropolitans of developing countries, because of the absence of equipments required for sampling at different locations. In this paper, the smoke data measurements of long years are used in the determination of the region for the representation of the city by drawing contours through the Kriging method. Then, the selection of the sampling site in this region is done on the basis of the criteria recommended by the EPA. By this way, the data taken from this sampling point are used for assessing the average city concentrations with lower sampling and analyses costs. This information is valuable for monitoring the air quality and defining environmental policies, although the local distribution and the extreme concentration values over the city are not measurable.     

Spatial association between residential radon concentration and bedrock types in New Hampshire

Using a large database of residential short-term radon measurements in New Hampshire, this study evaluated the ability of expert-assigned bedrock radon potential for predicting residential radon concentration. First, each bedrock type was assigned a radon potential level by a geologist familiar with the local geology. Then, using residential radon measurements, a continuous surface of radon concentration was generated through a kriging process. The mean residential radon concentration within the spatial extent of each bedrock type was then calculated based on that surface. The Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient was calculated between the two ranks of the bedrock types, one based on the expert-assigned potential level and the other based on the mean residential concentration. A strong correlation between the rank correlation and the area of the bedrock type was found. When only the 15 largest bedrock types were used, the Spearman Correlation Coefficient reached 0.6. Geological knowledge is concluded to be useful in predicting and mapping residential radon concentration, but the prediction should be interpreted with caution, especially for areas in which the underlying bedrocks are highly localized.     

几种插值法在海洋磁力测量数据格网化中的应用

为获得反映海区磁异常分布的磁异常图,海洋磁力测量数据处理中需要将离散数据通过插值方法进行格网化。给出了几种常用的数据格网化方法,并采用磁异常均匀分布和复杂分布情况对方法有效性进行了评价。结论表明:磁异常分布越复杂,对插值方法的要求越严格,无论是磁异常均匀分布还是复杂分布情况,Kriging法的效果最好,建议在海洋磁力测量数据处理中使用。     

张掖盆地地下水资源时空分异特征及影响因素

探索地下水系统演化的过程与机制对流域水资源的可持续管理至关重要。基于地下水多年动态观测资料和地统计学方法,按不同灌溉方式分区估算了张掖盆地1985~2013年地下水资源变化情况。结果表明:整个张掖盆地地下水水位降深和储量在时空上表现出很大差异性,基本经历了三个阶段:1985~1997年匀速下降阶段,1998~2004年加速下降阶段和2005~2013年减速下降阶段。整个盆地累积储量减少了47.52×108m~3,年均亏缺1.64×108m~3,其中河水井水灌区累积地下水位降深达5.72m,储量减少了37.48×108m~3,占地下水消耗量的78.87%。各分区累积水位降深变化从高到低依次为:河水﹥河水井水﹥泉水﹥河水泉水≥井水灌区,相应的累积储量变化依次为:河水井水﹥河水﹥井水﹥河水泉水﹥泉水灌区。从长时间尺度看,各分区及张掖盆地多年累积储量仍为负变化,即地下水资源仍处于较严重亏缺状态,对含水层造成很大威胁。这是气候变化与人类活动共同作用的结果,而人类活动如分水政策、引水灌溉、地下水开采等影响越来越强烈。结果可以为黑河流域水量均衡合理估算、地下水数值模拟和水资源统一规划调度提供科学依据。