我国海洋战略性新兴产业国际化发展研究

海洋战略性新兴产业的国际化发展对于建设海洋强国和发展海洋经济具有重要的理论和实际意义。文章分析我国海洋战略性新兴产业国际化起步晚和发展快、产业结构不断完善和区域发展水平存在差异的发展状况,提出目前存在的缺乏区域协调配合和交流合作以及政府支持政策亟须细化等主要问题,探索区域差异化发展模式、产业技术创新联盟合作模式、多元化投融资模式和国际合作模式等海洋战略性新兴产业国际化发展模式,在此基础上提出优化产业结构和布局、完善发展体制机制、加强国际交流合作、加强资金投入和人才培养以及强化示范项目建设的对策建议。     

King Canute muses in the South Seas: Why aren’t Pacific Islands transitioning to low carbon sea transport futures?

Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper.     

Constructed peer groups and path dependence in international organizations: The case of the international climate change negotiations

International organizations sometimes institutionalize country groupings by specifying differentiated commitments that may, in turn, affect negotiation dynamics. Drawing on incentive-based and socialization arguments, we develop a “constructed peer group” hypothesis suggesting that by creating these groups those organizations may actually construct new lines of confrontation over and above the substance-based disagreements existing between countries. This generates a particular type of path dependence, rendering broad-based international agreements more difficult in the future.We analyze this question at the example of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's increasingly politicized split between Annex I and non-Annex I countries. Using a self-coded dataset of country oral statements during the negotiations between December 2007 and December 2009 we assess whether Annex I membership influences a country's stance toward other countries’ arguments, while controlling for country characteristics that may drive their preferences and the affiliation to Annex I. We find that the split between Annex I and non-Annex I has indeed influenced negotiation behavior and amplified the divide between developing and industrialized countries in the climate negotiations.     

Quantitative models for reconstructing catchment ice-extent using physical-chemical characteristics of lake sediments

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.     

不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时临近预报预警研究

利用2001-2014年共14 a的北京首都国际机场(以下简称机场)观测资料和Micaps高空及地面观测资料, 将发生在机场的雷暴日分为八类(即强雷暴、弱雷暴、湿对流、干对流、弱冰雹、强冰雹、冰雹大风和混合对流), 对每种类型雷暴的气候特征进行了统计研究, 得出如下结论:(1)机场雷暴以弱雷暴为主, 其次为干对流。弱雷暴和干对流在6月出现最多, 强雷暴和湿对流在7月最多, 弱冰雹出现在春末夏初及秋季, 而冰雹大风出现在6-7月, 混合对流仅在7月出现一次。(2)从500 hPa形势来看, 西风槽造成的雷暴过程最多, 其它为西北气流型。500 hPa为西风槽和低涡、西北气流时, 地面辐合线触发的雷暴最多, 其次为冷锋。500 hPa为横槽时, 冷锋触发的雷暴比例增加, 没有由地形辐合线触发的雷暴。而副高边缘和低压倒槽类型的雷雨过程, 触发系统主要为辐合线。(3)从月分布来看, 低涡和西北气流型造成的雷雨在6月最多, 但横槽和西风槽造成的雷雨出现最多的分别在7月和8月。西风槽、低涡和西北气流型造成的弱雷雨均最多, 其次为干对流。而雷暴的地面触发系统以辐合线最多, 主要出现在6月, 冷锋触发的雷雨主要集中在5-6月, 地形辐合线主要集中在7、8月。(4)横槽、西北气流型雷暴的日循环分布只有一个峰值, 分别出现在05-12UTC和08-14UTC, 但低涡和西风槽却有两个峰值, 主峰值分别出现在12-13UTC和08-17UTC, 次峰值分别在07-08UTC和00-01UTC。

     

中国地磁台环境场的计算与分析

根据国际参考地磁场(IGRF)模型,计算出1945年5月—1990年5月中国部分地磁台的计算年均值,并与相应观测年均值比较,计算出地磁台各个地磁要素的磁异常值以及地磁台异常场的模量,本文的计算结果将为认识地磁台的地磁场环境、地磁台站资料评比提供依据。     

The role of international environmental instruments in enhancing transboundary marine protected areas: An approach in East Africa

The increasing degradation of marine ecosystems has led to multiple calls for greater protection through the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). If created at the ecosystem or ecoregion level, MPAs will likely straddle maritime boundaries and therefore necessitate international cooperation. International environmental law and international law of the sea may facilitate cooperation between States in creating transboundary MPAs. The extent to which this body of law is actually or potentially useful for the establishment of transboundary MPAs is examined in the context of the East African Marine Ecoregion, focusing on Mozambique, South Africa, and Tanzania. A general survey and assessment of the applicable global, regional, and bilateral instruments in relation to the three States is conducted. Although some global instruments are relevant in the East African context, regional and bilateral instruments are more conducive to the establishment of transboundary MPAs. The article concludes that although a trilateral agreement between Mozambique, South Africa, and Tanzania would be an ideal vehicle for the establishment of a transboundary network of MPAs addressing both national and ecoregional conservation interests, a separate solution at each border will be the first step towards this goal.     

发达国家海上搜救体系对比研究及对我国的启示

提升海上应急搜救能力对保障人民生命安全、维护国家海洋权益、彰显大国责任和担当具有积极作用和深远意义。发达国家海上搜救体系的先进性主要体现在搜救力量专业化、应急响应快捷化、组织协调高效化、搜救业务程序化等方面。文中对美国、英国、澳大利亚、日本4个国家的海上搜救组织构成、搜救力量水平、搜救工作模式等进行了分析,与我国海上搜救体系和机制进行了对比,并从优化搜救组织模式、完善搜救运行机制、健全搜救力量等方面给出了发展我国海上搜救体系的建议。     

Factors influencing the distribution of coastal lichens Hydropunctaria maura and Wahlenbergiella mucosa

Responses to abiotic and biotic stresses that potentially drive the vertical zonation of the intertidal lichens Hydropunctaria maura, an upper littoral lichen, and Wahlenbergiella mucosa, a lower littoral lichen, were investigated in field and laboratory experiments. When transplanted, both lichens exhibited an inability to survive outside their normal vertical distribution range. W. mucosa appeared to be unable to tolerate prolonged periods of desiccation following translocation from lower to upper littoral regions, whereas H. maura was unable to survive in lower littoral zones possibly owing to increased grazing pressure. The effect of desiccation in both lichens was compared using pulse amplitude modulated chlorophyll fluorescence and infra‐red gas analysis; results indicated a more hydration‐dependent nature of W. mucosa. Photosynthetic (algal) pigments and phenolic compounds were determined in both lichen thalli, and a range of additional coastal lichens occupying a natural gradient from upper to lower shore levels. Pigment composition and concentration in both lichen thalli were similar whereas levels of phenolic compounds were up to three times higher in W. mucosa than H. maura. Pigment and phenolic concentration and composition exhibited some seasonality across 13 different lichens originating from different shore levels. Phenolic concentration increased towards the lower shore, suggesting a potential anti‐herbivory function. This marks the first study of pigments and phenolics in coastal lichen communities, and prompts further investigations on the particular physiological features of marine and maritime lichens that enable them to thrive in this extreme environment.     

海洋地球工程的研究进展与相关国际法探析

全球气候变化及其引发的负面影响是当今人类面临的最大挑战之一,地球工程因被认为是减缓甚至扭转气候变化的切实可行的方案之一而备受关注。为推动地球工程技术的发展和相关国际法的完善,文章分析海洋施肥、人工上升流、人工海洋碱化、海洋云增白和海底造墙5种海洋地球工程的技术原理、研究进展及其在具体实施中对现行国际法的挑战。研究结果表明:无论是处于理论模拟阶段还是处于实验阶段,上述海洋地球工程技术都显示其减缓气候变化的潜力,同时也存在对海洋环境和人类生活的潜在风险;由于科学的不确定性和国际法的模糊性,各项技术在实际应用中都存在与国际法的冲突或适用问题,但目前从科研实践角度分析具体技术涉及的相关国际法问题的研究较少;虽然应在国际法框架下进行探索性研究,然而目前有关地球工程技术的国际法在理论研究和实践应用中仍存在很多争议。因此,必须加强对地球工程技术的研究,将技术风险降到最低,并在科学探索中做好环境基线研究,完善技术探索的环境影响评估方法;随着旨在减缓气候变化的小规模地球工程研究得到越来越多的支持,更应明确地球工程技术在国际法中的地位,建立合理的法律框架,推进国际法的改进。