基于合作与冲突视角的“亚洲水塔”周边国家地缘关系网络演化研究

全球暖化背景下,发源于“亚洲水塔”的国际河流水文特征的改变加剧了区域内地缘关系的紧张性,致使周边国家间地缘关系备受关注。利用新闻大数据GDELT中的合作与冲突事件表征国家间的合作与冲突关系,对1992—2018年“亚洲水塔”周边国家间地缘关系网络演化进行研究,结果表明：①研究期内,“亚洲水塔”周边国家间的地缘关系愈加紧密,区域地缘关系网络趋于稳态。②国家间合作网络逐渐呈以中国为中心的放射形结构,巴基斯坦是区域冲突网络的核心,区域内合作与冲突水平极化现象凸显。③周边国家间地缘关系互动的对等反应特征明显,地缘关系模式的演化表现出一定的时空惯性。④国际贸易格局的改变、地缘政治环境的变化、水资源战略价值重构以及地缘文化因素的潜在作用共同推动了“亚洲水塔”周边国家地缘关系网络的演化。     

Surveying co-located space-geodetic instruments for ITRF computation

A new and comprehensive method is presented that can be used for estimating eccentricity vectors between global positioning system (GPS) antennas, doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellites (DORIS) antennas, azimuth-elevation (AZ-EL) very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) telescopes, and satellite laser ranging (SLR) and lunar laser ranging (LLR) telescopes. The problem of reference point (RP) definition for these space-geodetic instruments is addressed and computed using terrestrial triangulation and electronic distance measurement (EDM) trilateration. The practical ground operations, the surveying approach and the terrestrial data processing are briefly illustrated, and the post-processing procedure is discussed. It is a geometrically based analytical approach that allows computation of RPs along with a rigorous statistical treatment of measurements. The tight connection between the geometrical model and the surveying procedure is emphasized. The computation of the eccentricity vector and the associated variance–covariance matrix between an AZ-EL VLBI telescope (with or without intersecting axes) and a GPS choke ring antenna is concentrated upon, since these are fundamental for computing the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). An extension to RP computation and eccentricity vectors involving DORIS, SLR and LLR techniques is also presented. Numerical examples of the quality that can be reached using the authors approach are given. Working data sets were acquired in the years 2001 and 2002 at the radioastronomical observatory of Medicina (Italy), and have been used to estimate two VLBI-GPS eccentricity vectors and the corresponding SINEX files.     

The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States,Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data

The United States, Russia and China are militarily and economically among the most powerful countries in the post-Cold War period, and the interactions between the three powers heavily influence the international system. However, different conclusions about this question are generally made by researchers through qualitative analysis, and it is necessary to objectively and quantitatively investigate their interactions. Monthly-aggregated event data from the Global Data on Events, Location and Tone(GDELT) to measure cooperative and conflictual interactions between the three powers, and the complementary cumulative distribution function(CCDF) and the vector autoregression(VAR) method are utilized to investigate their interactions in two periods: January, 1991 to September, 2001, and October, 2001 to December, 2016. The results of frequencies and strengths analysis showed that: the frequencies and strengths of USA-China interactions slightly exceeded those of USA-Russia interactions and became the dominant interactions in the second period. Although that cooperation prevailed in the three dyads in two periods, the conflictual interactions between the USA and Russia tended to be more intense in the second period, mainly related to the strategic contradiction between the USA and Russia, especially in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. The results of CCDF indicated that similar probabilities in the cooperative behaviors between the three dyads, but the differences in the probabilities of conflictual behaviors in the USA-Russia dyad showed complicated characteristic, and those between Russia and China indicated that Russia had been consistently giving China a hard time in both periods when dealing with conflict. The USA was always an essential factor in affecting the interactions between Russia and China in both periods, but China's behavior only played a limited role in influencing the interactions between the USA-Russia dyad. Our study provides quantitative insight into the direct cooperative and conflictual interactions between the three dyads since the end of the Cold War and helps to understand their interactions better.     

珠江口海水密度的研究

用磁力浮沉子密度测量装置,在１５ ～２５ ℃之间的三个温度下测定了珠江口２０ 个水样的密度。结果表明,测定值皆高于相应条件下国际标准海水状态方程的计算值,在海水盐度范围０．０８～３３ ．４４６ ,密度平均偏差范围为２ ．４ ～５４．０ ×１０ － ３ｋｇ／ｍ３ 。测定密度和计算密度的偏差随盐度的降低而增大,与盐度的变化成直线相关：与（Ｃａ２ ＋ ）／Ｓ、ＳＯ４２ － ／Ｓ比和比碱度之间皆呈指数曲线相关。珠江口水样（Ｃａ２ ＋ ）／Ｃ１ 、ＳＯ４２ － ／Ｃ１ 和比碱度平均值分别超出大洋水平均值１７ ．８ ％ 、８ ．２１ ％ 和１５２ ％ ,其余的Ｎａ ＋ ／Ｃ１、Ｋ＋ ／Ｃ１ 和Ｓｒ２ ＋ ／Ｃ１ 比值与大洋水无明显差别,基本类同。珠江口海水的高碱度、高（Ｃａ２ ＋ ）／Ｃ１ 和高ＳＯ４２ － ／Ｃ１ 是造成其海水密度正偏差的主要因素。经计算机拟合,首次导出了珠江口海水密度的状态方程,该方程计算值与实验值的平均标准偏差为±２．５×１０－ ３ｋｇ／ｍ３ 。     

基于LWPC和IRI模型的NWC台站信号传播幅度建模分析

频率为3~30 kHz的甚低频（VLF,Very Low Frequency）电磁波具有波长长、传播距离远的特点,能够沿地面-低电离层波导进行传播,在通信、导航等许多领域都被广泛应用.基于波导模理论的长波传播模型（LWPC,Long-Wavelength Propagation Capability）能够用于计算甚低频波的传播路径及幅度,进而研究耀斑、磁暴、地震等事件对电离层的扰动.本文利用国际电离层参考模型（IRI,International Reference Ionosphere）对LWPC中电子密度和碰撞频率进行改进,并将模拟结果与武汉大学VLF接收机实际观测到的NWC（North West Cape）台站信号幅度进行比较分析,结果表明改进后LWPC模型得到的幅度及变化趋势与实际值更加接近.LWPC模型给出的电子密度与IRI模型得到的电子密度在日间基本一致,但是在夜间存在差异,造成夜间部分区域NWC台站信号幅度的差异性,验证了电离层电子密度对于VLF信号传播具有的重要影响.传播路径上的晨昏变化也可以引起VLF信号幅度分布的突变,在日出和日落时间段内存在明显的过渡区域.基于IRI模型的LWPC,改善了VLF电波传播过程的预测分析效果,提供了一种长波导航通信质量的评估方法.

     

地球空间双星探测计划

地球空间双星探测计划包括两颗小卫星,将分别运行于目前国际上地球空间探测卫星尚未覆盖的近地赤道区和近地极区.双星计划的主要科学目标是用高分辨率的仪器在近地空间的主要活动区探测场和粒子的时空变化;研究磁层亚暴、磁暴和磁层粒子暴的触发机制及磁层空间暴对太阳活动和行星际扰动的响应过程;建立地球空间环境的动态模式.为了实现科学目标,赤道卫星和极区卫星上各载有9台探测仪器.赤道卫星的轨道是:近地点550km,远地点60000km,倾角约2.5°;极区卫星轨道是:近地点350km,远地点25000km,倾角约90°左右.为了使双星计划与欧空局ClusterⅡ相配合,赤道卫星计划于2002年12月发射,极区卫星计划于2003年6月发射.双星计划与ClusterⅡ相配合,可形成地球空间6点探测计划,这将成为21世纪初国际上重要的地球空间探测计划.     

亚洲大洋洲区域综合地球观测系统计划进展

亚洲大洋洲区域综合地球观测系统是为实现国际地球观测组织总体战略目标而设立的区域地球观测合作计划,旨在面向亚大区域国家对地球观测技术的应用需求,保障亚大区域地球观测空间信息的精准获取与主动服务,增强地球观测技术支撑区域可持续发展的综合能力。该计划由地球观测组织亚大区域成员国共同提出,并对亚大地区的所有国家和参与组织开放。通过国际地球观测组织亚大区域政府间合作机制,在国家、区域和全球层面建立有效的合作框架,积极协调区域内的地球观测资源设施的互联互通、技术合作与共享服务,促进亚大区域国家在社会经济关键领域的应用,共同应对可持续发展、全球变化和重大灾害的挑战。     

King Canute muses in the South Seas: Why aren’t Pacific Islands transitioning to low carbon sea transport futures?

Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper.     

海洋地球工程的研究进展与相关国际法探析

全球气候变化及其引发的负面影响是当今人类面临的最大挑战之一,地球工程因被认为是减缓甚至扭转气候变化的切实可行的方案之一而备受关注。为推动地球工程技术的发展和相关国际法的完善,文章分析海洋施肥、人工上升流、人工海洋碱化、海洋云增白和海底造墙5种海洋地球工程的技术原理、研究进展及其在具体实施中对现行国际法的挑战。研究结果表明:无论是处于理论模拟阶段还是处于实验阶段,上述海洋地球工程技术都显示其减缓气候变化的潜力,同时也存在对海洋环境和人类生活的潜在风险;由于科学的不确定性和国际法的模糊性,各项技术在实际应用中都存在与国际法的冲突或适用问题,但目前从科研实践角度分析具体技术涉及的相关国际法问题的研究较少;虽然应在国际法框架下进行探索性研究,然而目前有关地球工程技术的国际法在理论研究和实践应用中仍存在很多争议。因此,必须加强对地球工程技术的研究,将技术风险降到最低,并在科学探索中做好环境基线研究,完善技术探索的环境影响评估方法;随着旨在减缓气候变化的小规模地球工程研究得到越来越多的支持,更应明确地球工程技术在国际法中的地位,建立合理的法律框架,推进国际法的改进。     

地层学的几个基本问题及中国地层学可能的发展趋势

对地层学的几个基本问题,包括地层分类、国际地层表的建立、全球地层标准剖面及剖面点进行了讨论。在各种地层分类体系中,年代地层学和岩石地层学是分类中的主体,其他系统都居于补充或从属的地位。国际地层表是地质学的基本文件和地学研究的主要参照,其建立的基础应是地史上关键性地质事件的记录,其方法应是多学科的综合研究。前寒武纪与显生宙划分的建立标准应是一致的。国际地层委员会制订的GSSP做出了重大贡献,但所定点位不够稳定,点位以外无法对比,在实践上和认知上都有不足。可考虑用多学科综合研究,寻觅接近等时的物理界面取代剖面点作为地层界面。在中国地层研究方面,以三次全国地层会议为准,分阶段概括论述了半世纪以来做出的主要成果。对今后中国地层研究的可能趋势提出了一些看法。主要是:应从系统论、整体观和复杂性观点的高度开展多学科的融合,共同解决地层的时空关系和划分对比等复杂问题;应当扩大服务面和扩展研究面,着重开展以古环境和古气候为中心的地层研究,协助解决与经济建设中的资源与环境两大主题有关的地质课题;制订2008年后的中、长期规划,改进GSSP程序,持续完善《国际地层表》这一永恒任务;开展高分辨率、高精度地层学研究,建立融合及协调多种分支学科的综合地层学;扩大地层学对整个地球科学的服务,使中国地层学研究进入一个新的阶段。