北方农牧交错带退耕还林还草经济政策优化调控

退耕还林还草作为北方农牧交错带生态重建的切入点,在实际操作中也不可避免地存在一定的问题。文章对当前退耕还林还草的社会经济特征、政策安排、协调机制及制约因素进行了分析。提出:区域粮食适度自给定位、部门协调机制创新、产权制度改革、区域产业专业化分工、适度生态移民及建立生态补偿机制为进行政策优化调控的主要途径。     

1952~2003年我国区域经济发展不均衡的 长期变化态势

文中分别利用Gini、GE等指数，以实际人均国内生产总值(GDP)为指标，详细考查了从1952~2003年，我国省市区间经济发展不均衡的变化态势及其在东部-内陆、南方-北方、高城镇化-低城镇化地区等方向上的变化。人均实际GDP的Gini、GE等指数显示，从1952~2003年，我国省级区域经济发展不均衡的总体态势是以较缓慢的速度逐步增加。具体的变化是，随着时间的推移区域经济不均衡呈周期性地上升、下降运动。就我国省市区经济发展不均衡在空间上的变化而言，一是在沿海-内陆和高城镇化-低城镇化方向上，分别在1990s中期和1980s中期以前，我国省市区经济不均衡主要表现为区域内部不均衡，但区域之间不均衡则不断增加，并逐步成为省市区经济不均衡主要部分；一是，在北方-南方方向上，我国省市区经济不均衡则是一直表现为区域内部不均衡，区域之间不均衡对省市区经济不均衡的贡献一直显得微不足道。     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

Erodibility of low‐compaction steep‐sloped reclaimed surface mine lands in the southern Appalachian region,USA

The use of loose spoils on steep slopes for surface coal mining reclamation sites has been promoted by the US Department of Interior, Office of Surface Mining for the establishment of native forest, as prescribed by the Forest Reclamation Approach (FRA). Although low‐compaction spoils improve tree survival and growth, erodibility on steep slopes was suspected to increase. This study quantified a combined K_C factor (combining the effects of the soil erodibility K factor and cover management C) for low compaction, steep‐sloped (>20°) reclaimed mine lands in the Appalachian region, USA. The combined K_C factor was used because standard Unit Plot conditions required to separate these factors, per Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) experimental protocols, were not followed explicitly. Three active coal mining sites in the Appalachian region of East Tennessee, each containing four replicate field plots, were monitored for rainfall and sediment yields during a 14‐month period beginning June 2009. Average cumulative erosivity for the study sites during the monitoring period was measured as 5248.9 MJ·mm·ha^?1·h^?1. The K_C ranged between 0.001 and 0.05 t·ha·h·ha^?1·MJ^?1·mm^?1, with the highest values occurring immediately following reclamation site construction as rills developed (June – August 2009). The K_C for two study sites with about an 18–20 mm spoil D₈₄ were above 0.01 t·ha·h·ha^?1·MJ^?1·mm^?1 during rill development, and below 0.003 t·ha·h·ha^?1·MJ^?1·mm^?1 after August 2009 for the post‐rill development period. The K_C values for one site with a 40 mm spoil D₈₄ were never above 0.008 t·ha·h·ha^?1·MJ^?1·mm^?1 and also on average were lower, being more similar to the other two sites after the rill development period. Based on an initial K_C factor (K_e) measured during the first few storm events, the average C factor (C_e) was estimated as 0.58 for the rill development period and 0.13 for the post‐rill development period. It appears that larger size fractions of spoils influence K_C and C_e factors on low‐compaction steep slopes reclamation sites. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Industrial and geographical mobility of workers during industry decline: The Swedish and German shipbuilding industries 1970–2000

This article follows the industry employment histories of all individuals who at some point have been affiliated with the declining German or the dismantling Swedish shipbuilding industry during 1970–2000. We analyse the situation of the individual workers leaving shipbuilding, investigating the extent to which they were employed at all, tended to move to related sectors within or outside the region, and whether such moves were beneficial for the individuals. Combining insights from labour geography and redundancy studies with evolutionary economic geography, we find remarkably similar results for the West German and Swedish cases. Our findings indicate a notable impact of the regional industry structure on the labour market outcomes for workers leaving shipbuilding. This suggests that more attention should be devoted to the specific structures of the absorptive capacity of regional labour markets. The findings are discussed within the context of a mature industry.     

丝绸之路经济带甘肃黄金段找矿勘查新进展

丝绸之路经济带已成为国家战略,赋于了上合组织新的内涵,也给地质工作者提出了新的要求。甘肃是古丝绸之路的锁匙之地,是丝绸之路经济带上的“黄金路段”。2014年甘肃省提出利用拥有古丝绸之路贯穿境内1600 km的战略通道优势,打造丝绸之路经济带的黄金段,使其成为向西开放的战略平台、经贸物流的区域中心、产业合作的示范基地、人才交流的桥梁纽带。本文就甘肃省矿产资源优势、找矿勘查新进展及向西走出去提出建议。     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度评价

以二连浩特市人水关系为研究对象,从取水总量和谐度、用水效率和谐度、水生态环境保护和谐度三个方面构建了二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度评价体系。从评价结果可以看出,二连浩特市开展节水型社会建设以来,水资源与经济社会和谐度发生了较显著的改善。评价体系较好地反映了二连浩特市水资源与经济社会和谐度,对北方干旱缺水地区节水型社会建设具有借鉴意义。     

北方某经济开发区地下水污染调查评价

本文应用污染指数法,对北方某经济开发区及周边地下水水质进行了污染评价,结果表明研究区地下水水质以轻污染和中污染为主,局部地区出现较重污染,主要指标为硝酸盐氮、三氯甲烷和三氯乙烯。通过对工业废水、再生水、河水水质的检测,发现研究区地表水水质与污水处理厂再生水排放密切相关,地下水污染很可能与开发区企业排污有关。由于开发区所处位置的环境敏感性和脆弱性,建议今后在开发区及附近继续开展相关研究,进一步查明地下水的硝酸盐氮及有机污染物来源、污染途径,建立完善的监测体系,以便及时切断污染源,保障城市及当地供水安全。     

Anthropogenic factors and habitat complexity influence biodiversity but wave exposure drives species turnover of a subtropical rocky inter‐tidal metacommunity

Coastal ecosystems are complex and species rich, but are vulnerable to degradation from a variety of anthropogenic activities. Nevertheless, information on inter‐tidal community composition in the Caribbean Basin and at other oceanic sites is lacking. Such information is essential to developing a more comprehensive understanding of rocky inter‐tidal systems and their responses to global change. The goals of this study were to determine the relative importance of environmental (wave power density, wave height), habitat (e.g. algal cover, slope, complexity of rock surfaces) and anthropogenic (distance to roads, population density) factors associated with the structure of local assemblages at multiple shore heights and the regional metacommunity of mobile invertebrates on oceanic rocky inter‐tidal habitats. Environmental characteristics associated with habitat complexity (algal cover, rock surface complexity) and human population density were most strongly associated with abundance and biodiversity of invertebrates. Species richness was positively correlated with surface complexity, but abundance was negatively correlated with both surface complexity and per cent algal cover. By contrast, abundance of invertebrates was positively correlated with human population density, and diversity was negatively correlated with human population density. Abundance of invertebrates was greatest in the mid inter‐tidal zone, whereas diversity was greatest in the lower inter‐tidal zone. Metacommunity structure was Gleasonian, but the gradient along which species turnover occurred was correlated with measures of wave exposure, rather than anthropogenic activity. Unlike in previous studies, mostly at mainland sites, human activity primarily altered dominance patterns of communities, while having relatively little effect on species richness or composition.