全球原油贸易网络视角下的亚洲溢价与中日印韩原油潜在竞争关系

随着全球原油贸易关系的复杂化和亚洲原油需求的上升,全球能源市场的“亚洲溢价”现象成为需要关注的议题。本文基于全球石油贸易网络复杂性视角,选取1993—2018年国际原油贸易数据进行样本数据考察,通过构建复杂网络模型和潜在竞争指数,对全球原油贸易网络中的亚洲溢价现象和中日印韩四国潜在竞争力进行分析。结果表明：全球原油贸易集团分化交融,中日印韩呈现出贸易集团化的趋势。从全球原油贸易网络指标来看,中日印韩四国在全球原油贸易网络地位和影响力不断提升,有力推动了全球原油消费中心向亚太地区转移。潜在竞争指数表明,中国与日本、印度、韩国的潜在原油竞争关系呈现出不同特征,中日表现出“先强后弱”的特点,而中印、中韩表现为整体持续增强的特征。     

吉林省城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法

由于中国社会经济统计资料中均缺乏历年采暖能源消费数据,在分析气候变化对采暖能耗的影响时,始终存在着一个瓶颈。为此,提出了一种城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法,这种方法把气候变化因素与相关的社会经济因素（如人口、人均居住面积等）结合在一起,较直观地反映了气候变化对城市住宅采暖耗能的影响。以地处高纬的吉林省为例,利用吉林省历年城镇人口、城镇人均居住面积、采暖度日数以及单位面积采暖耗煤量指标,建立了吉林省历年采暖气候耗能距平序列。结果表明：相对于1971-2000年30 a平均气候状况,吉林省2001/2002年的采暖期理论上因气候偏暖可以节约35.98万t标准煤,而2000/2001年采暖期因气候偏冷需要增加15.5万t标准煤。     

Analysis of earthquake ground motions using an improved Hilbert–Huang transform

Some limitations of the Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) for nonlinear and nonstationary signal processing are remarked. As an enhancement to the HHT, a time varying vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model based method is proposed to calculate the instantaneous frequencies of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) obtained from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) of a signal. By representing the IMFs as time varying VARMA model and using the Kalman filter to estimate the time varying model parameters, the instantaneous frequencies are calculated according to the time varying parameters, then the instantaneous frequencies and the envelopes derived from the cubic spline interpolation of the maxima of IMFs are used to yield the Hilbert spectrum. The analysis of the length of day dataset and the ground motion record El Centro (1940, N–S) shows that the proposed method offers advantages in frequency resolution, and produces more physically meaningful and readable Hilbert spectrum than the original HHT method, short-time Fourier transform (STFT) and wavelet transform (WT). The analysis of the seismic response of a building during the 1994 Northridge earthquake shows that the proposed method is a powerful tool for structural damage detection, which is expected as the promising area for future research.     

Turbulent kinetic energy and sediment resuspension due to wave groups

Wave-induced sediment resuspension in nearshore regions has been observed occurring in an event-like manner and associated with the passage of wave groups. This paper describes field measurements of turbulent velocities obtained simultaneously with suspended sediment concentration and water surface elevation from Floreat Beach, Perth, Western Australia. The data were used to study the relationship between turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) on suspension events caused by wave groups and the intermittent nature of bottom turbulence production and sediment suspension. The field measurements showed the high TKE events occurred under wave crests, and sometimes under wave toughs, when the wave heights were increasing during the passage of a wave group; the TKE decreased after the maximum wave in the wave group had passed over the measurement location. High suspended sediment concentrations (ssc) and the intermittent high TKE events were not related rather the higher ssc events were associated with a secondary peak in the surface elevation, close to the maxima in the offshore velocity, and “burst” events in the Reynolds stress.     

Estimation of hysteretic energy demand using concepts of modal pushover analysis

Hysteretic energy dissipation in a structure during an earthquake is the key factor, besides maximum displacement, related to the amount of damage in it. This energy demand can be accurately computed only through a nonlinear time‐history analysis of the structure subjected to a specific earthquake ground acceleration. However, for multi‐story structures, which are usually modeled as multi‐degree of freedom (MDOF) systems, this analysis becomes computation intensive and time consuming and is not suitable for adopting in seismic design guidelines. An alternative method of estimating hysteretic energy demand on MDOF systems is presented here. The proposed method uses multiple ‘generalized’ or ‘equivalent’ single degree of freedom (ESDOF) systems to estimate hysteretic energy demand on an MDOF system within the context of a ‘modal pushover analysis’. This is a modified version of a previous procedure using a single ESDOF system. Efficiency of the proposed procedure is tested by comparing energy demands based on this method with results from nonlinear dynamic analyses of MDOF systems, as well as estimates based on the previous method, for several ground motion scenarios. Three steel moment frame structures, of 3‐, 9‐, and 20‐story configurations, are selected for this comparison. Bias statistics that show the effectiveness of the proposed method are presented. In addition to being less demanding on the computation time and complexity, the proposed method is also suitable for adopting in design guidelines, as it can use response spectra for hysteretic energy demand estimation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pseudo‐dynamic test of a full‐scale CFT/BRB frame—Part II: Seismic performance of buckling‐restrained braces and connections

This paper is Part II of a two‐part paper describing a full‐scale 3‐story 3‐bay concrete‐filled tube (CFT)/buckling‐restrained braced frame (BRBF) specimen tested using psuedo‐dynamic testing procedures. The first paper described the specimen design, experiment, and simulation, whereas this paper focuses on the experimental responses of BRBs and BRB‐to‐gusset connections. This paper first evaluates the design of the gusset connections and the effects of the added edge stiffeners in improving the seismic performance of gusset connections. Test results suggest that an effective length factor of 2.0 should be considered for the design of the gusset plate without edge stiffeners. Tests also confirm that the cumulative plastic deformation (CPD) capacity of the BRBs adopted in the CFT/BRBF was lower than that found in typical component tests. The tests performed suggest that the reduction in the BRB CPD capacities observed in this full‐scale frame specimen could be due to the significant rotational demands imposed on the BRB‐to‐gusset joints. A simple method of computing such rotational demands from the frame inter‐story drift response demand is proposed. This paper also discusses other key experimental responses of the BRBs, such as effective stiffness, energy dissipation, and ductility demands. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.     

Statistical model on the surface elevation of waves with breaking

In the surface wind drift layer with constant momentum flux, two sets of the consistent surface eleva- tion expressions with breaking and occurrence conditions for breaking are deduced from the first in- tegrals of the energy and vortex variations and the kinetic and mathematic breaking criterions, then the expression of the surface elevation with wave breaking is established by using the Heaviside function. On the basis of the form of the sea surface elevation with wave breaking and the understanding of small slope sea waves, a triple composite function of real sea waves is presented including the func- tions for the breaking, weak-nonlinear and basic waves. The expression of the triple composite func- tion and the normal distribution of basic waves are the expected theoretical model for surface elevation statistics.     

Seismic vulnerability evaluation of axially loaded steel built-up laced members Ⅱ： evaluations

The test results described in Part 1 of this paper （Lee and Bruneau, 2008） on twelve steel built-up laced members （BLMs） subjected to quasi-static loading are analyzed to provide better knowledge on their seismic behavior. Strength capacity of the BLM specimens is correlated with the strength predicted by the AISC LRFD Specifications. Assessments of hysteretic properties such as ductility capacity, energy dissipation capacity, and strength degradation after buckling of the specimen are performed. The compressive strength of BLMs is found to be relatively well predicted by the AISC LRFD Specifications. BLMs with smaller kl/r were ductile but failed to reach the target ductility of 3.0 before starting to fracture, while those with larger kl/r could meet the ductility demand in most cases. The normalized energy dissipation ratio, EC/ET and the normalized compressive strength degradation, Cr″/Cr of BLMs typically decrease as normalized displacements δ/δb,exp increase, and the ratios for specimens with larger kl/r dropped more rapidly than for specimens with smaller kl/r; similar trends were observed for the monolithic braces. The BLMs with a smaller slenderness ratio, kl/r, and width-to-thickness ratio, b/t, experienced a larger number of inelastic cycles than those with larger ratios.     

基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测

能源消费所产生的碳排放是经济发展过程中不可避免的副产品,而且碳排放在大气中的积累会使全球气候不断变暖,因此经济增长与碳排放之间的关系一直是学术界关注的焦点。传统的基于EKC曲线的经济计量学方法一般是对经济与排放历史数据的相关关系研究,不能很好地反映二者之间的动力学机制。为此本文在内生经济增长模型Moon-Sonn基础上进行改进,首先从理论上得到了最优经济增长率与能源强度之间存在倒U曲线关系的必要条件,即能源的产出弹性小于0.5;接着将投入产出分析得到的反映技术进步下的能源强度代入模型,对中国未来经济增长路径进行了预测,同时得到了最优增长路径下的能源消费走势,进而通过对能源消费结构和不同能源品种的碳排放系数的预测和估计,以及对分品种能源碳排放的汇总计算得到了中国未来能源消费所产生的总的碳排放走势。结果显示,在当前技术进步速率下,我国分别在2043年和2040年达到能源消费高峰和碳排放高峰。此外,本文对能源强度不同下降速率对能源消费高峰的影响进行模拟发现,当降速为4.5%~5%时,能源高峰将出现在2040年前,此时的人均GDP为10万元左右,与OECD国家的高峰时收入一致;而且分3种情景模拟了可再生能源替代政策对...