近50年中国冬季气温对ENSO响应的时空稳定性分析研究

根据1962~2010年中国160站的月平均气温资料、Ni?o3.4区海洋Ni?o指数(ONI)资料以及相应的NECP/NCAR再分析资料,采用相关分析、滑动相关分析、滑动t检验、合成分析等方法,探讨了最近50年中国冬季气温对ENSO响应的时空稳定性问题。结果表明:中国冬季气温异常对ENSO的响应有着显著的地域性差异以及年代际变化,其中东北和西南地区的相关关系不稳定度比较大,而在中国东部地区则比较稳定。东北与西南地区在20世纪70年代中后期以后,冬季气温对ENSO的响应迅速减弱,甚至发生了反向变化,而东部地区这种关系近50年并没有较强的突变。相应的亚洲高空大气环流对ENSO的响应也具有明显的空间差异和阶段性变化,其特征与中国冬季气温对ENSO的响应特征基本对应。从大气环流角度解释中国冬季气温对ENSO的响应发生阶段性减弱的可能机制:ENSO通过经向Hadley环流影响中高纬度大气环流,由于70年代中后期以后亚洲经向Hadley环流的下沉支发生显著减弱,使得东亚大气环流对ENSO的响应减弱,进而导致中国冬季气温对ENSO的响应减弱。     

Tension during parametric excitation in submerged vertical taut tethers

The construction of a suspension bridge with floating pylons or a submerged floating tunnel requires the installation of a mooring system. The option of taut vertical tethers, similar to those used in tension-leg platforms, has been suggested in preliminary designs. The environmental loading on the tether, mainly due to wind waves and swell, results in a parametrically excited system. Certain loading conditions develop instabilities that translate into large horizontal motion. However, the effects of parametric resonance on the tension values have rarely been investigated. This paper aims to clarify the relation between lateral displacement and tether tension and to quantify the extreme tension values in the event of parametric resonance. The presented analysis is based on a full numerical model of the tether that includes geometric and hydrodynamic nonlinear effects. This model is used to investigate a representative example that illustrates parametric resonance and multiple parametric studies to assess the effects of the excitation frequency, amplitude, initial pretension, tether length and inclination angle on the tether’s response. The results reported here provide the basis for a recommendation on designing a tether under parametric resonance regarding the ultimate extreme values and fatigue life.     

近磁尾TC-1观测到伴随有高速流的ULF波及不稳定性分析

2004年8月3日近地TC-1卫星在磁尾X_GSM~－12R_E的等离子体片内,观测到了伴随着高速流的低于离子回旋频率的波,即超低频波(ULF,Ultra Low Frequency).该波垂直分量的振幅在高速流及其振荡减速期间大致相当;而平行分量振幅在高速流时明显大于其振荡减速时. 利用一个扰动双流模型对完全磁化离子横场漂移驱动的电磁不稳定性计算后,预测结果表明:(1)对于垂直分量来说,横场漂移速度与Alfvén速度的比值影响不稳定性增长率和激发波频率,随其比值增加,增长率变大,激发波频率从负值增加到正值.(2)对于平行分量来说,温度各向异性时等离子体热速度与Alfvén速度比值只影响不稳定性增长率和激发波频率,未改变不稳定性模类别;而温度各向同性时离子横场漂移速度与Alfvén速度比值既影响不稳定性模的种类及其分支,又影响激发波频率.进一步将卫星观测到的等离子体密度、温度、整体流速和磁场代入模型方程,进行数值计算与上述预测结果对比后发现:卫星观测中垂直分量的功率谱密度(PSD,Power Spectrum Density)增强时间和频段与理论模型中由β_//、β_⊥和v_⊥/V_A引起不稳定性激发的波一致;卫星观测中平行分量的功率谱密度增强时间与理论模型基本相符,但是前者的频率明显地低于后者.因此,除了需考虑平行磁场的离子整体流速对不稳定性激发波频率的可能影响,还需要统计上进一步核实伴随有高速流的ULF波与不稳定性的相关性.     

Excitation of ion waves by charged dust beams in ionospheric aerosol release experiments

Ion waves excited by charged dust beams streaming across or along the geomagnetic field in the ionosphere may be generated by plasma instabilities during aerosol release experiments. The injection speed of the dust and gas is comparable to or larger than the ion thermal speed in the background plasma. The dust grains can get charged by plasma collection from the ambient ionosphere, and can thus act as a charged beam that excites instabilities in the background plasma. The theory is applied to relatively early time scales of the order of in the dust-gas cloud expansion, with wave frequencies that are larger than the ion gyrofrequency, and collisions with neutrals are included.     

Automatic classification of dome instabilities based on Doppler radar measurements at Merapi volcano, Indonesia: Part I

Monitoring lava dome instabilities is crucial to efficiently monitor active dome building volcanoes. The Doppler radar technique provides a unique opportunity to gather information about the number of instability events occurring at the growing dome and about the dynamic processes that take place during different types of instabilities. So far, three different kinds of processes have been identified: sliding material, gravitational break-offs and explosive outbursts. In addition, Doppler radars provide rain measurements, which can be used to investigate possible correlations between rainfall and dome activity. Two radar systems have been installed at Merapi volcano in October 2001 and January 2005 to continuously monitor dome instabilities. Due to the large number of instability events that occur during times of high activity, manual processing and analysis of instability events is not practical for monitoring purposes. Therefore, an automatic classification system has been developed, which is capable of identifying different kinds of instabilities as well as rainfall. Two different kinds of classifier models have been applied: (1) neural network and (2) K-nearest-neighbour classifier model. Both classify Doppler spectra according to the underlying dynamic process, that is, rain, sliding material, gravitational break-off or explosive outburst. The classifiers are able to identify disturbances, which have no physical source, but are merely artefacts from the radar device itself. Because radar events are sequences of Doppler spectra, a rule set has been defined, which finally determines the event class. All classifiers have been trained and tested on independent data sets to estimate the classification performance. The overall classification rate is about 90 per cent. Discrimination of instabilities and non-volcanic events reaches about 98 per cent accuracy.     

Nonmodal Growth on a Sphere at Various Horizontal Scales

Nonmodal growth (NG) and unstable normal mode growth are considered in spherical geometry. Two groups of initial conditions (IC) are studied: "connected" IC (common in Cartesian studies) and "separated" IC (based on observed conditions prior to cyclogenesis). Time series of growth rates are emphasized in conjunction with eigenmode projections. Projections show that early on normal mode growth was much stronger for connected IC and that NG caused negative growth early on of some variables for separated IC. Projections explain why amplitude, kinetic energy (KE), and potential vorticity have more NG than available potential energy (APE). Though varying between ICs and with initial phase shift, NG increases with wavenumber. For middle wavelengths, NG is significant and positive using connected IC but negative or small using separated IC. Total energy and KE growth rates of short waves are very similar during the first 2 days for both ICs. Amplitude time series closely follow KE in all cases studied. APE has less overlap than does KE between the main modes present, so less NG occurs for APE than for KE. In separated IC cases, APE growth rates evolve consistent with emergence of an unstable normal mode and little NG.     

高温高压岩石力学—历史,现状,展望

高温高压岩石力学是岩石力学的分支学科，它以固体地球介质（材料）的变形行为和机制为研究对象，与一般变形固体力学相比较，具有高温、高压、强约束、宽时域、大变形、以及固－液相互作用、物理效应－化学效应并存等特点。高温高压岩石力学是在经典连续介质力学的基础上，针对自身的特殊性，运用破裂学、摩擦学和流变学的研究成果，经过相当长时期的酝酿和积累，大致于本世纪七十年代建立并逐步发展起来的。它在岩石破裂、摩质力学     

The instability of the vortex sheet along the shear line

The traditional Kelvin-Helmholtz notion of studying the shear instability is not suitable for the case associated with shear line with the strong wind shear in the vortex sheet. Since then, the shear instability be-comes the instability of the vortex sheet. If the velocity is induced by the vortex sheet, the inequalities (1 – Rv + Rid)> 0 and U (y,t)> U{A(t)} become the criterion of the vortex sheet instability. This criterion indicates that 1) the disposition of environment field restrains the disturbance developing along the shear line. 2) There exist multi-scale interactions in the unstable process of the shear line. The calculation of the necessary condition for the instability is also presented in this paper.