晚三叠世昌都盆地构造背景及对成煤作用的控制

位于西藏东部的昌都盆地是经历石炭纪、二叠纪以及三叠纪多期成煤盆地叠合改造形成的构造盆地,其中以晚三叠世巴贡组含煤地层分布最为广泛。三叠纪时期,盆地两侧的金沙江洋盆与澜沧江洋盆相继闭合,区域构造背景复杂,是决定成煤古地理条件的首要因素。不同的构造背景形成特定的岩浆岩石类型和构造岩浆岩组合。昌都地体两侧晚三叠世火山岩的地球化学特征分析表明,昌都盆地东缘双峰式火山主要受伸展应力控制,形成裂陷,造成地形起伏大,区域沉降幅度大,沉积速率快,不利于发育稳定的成煤环境。盆地西缘与澜沧江洋壳俯冲相关的侵入岩发育,反映在挤压应力背景下形成坳陷,相对简单的基底构造为发生持续稳定的聚煤作用提供了良好的古地理环境。在后期构造作用的控制下,连续的煤层多被错断,呈角度不一、大小悬殊的单斜断块或褶皱产出,在巴贡、夺盖拉等地保存有具工业价值的煤矿点。     

Autogenic controls on hybrid bed distribution in submarine lobe complexes

Hybrid beds, the deposits of sediment gravity flows that show evidence for more than one flow regime (turbulent, transitional and/or laminar), have been recognized as important components of submarine lobe deposits. A wide range of hybrid bed types have been documented, however, quantitative analysis of the stratigraphic and geographic distribution of these enigmatic bed types is rare. Here, extensive exposures integrated with research borehole data from Unit A of the Laingsburg Formation and Fan 4 of the Skoorsteenberg Formation, Ecca Group, South Africa, provide the opportunity to examine geographical and stratigraphic patterns over a range of hierarchical scales.For this purpose, >23,000 individual beds have been evaluated for deposit type and bed thickness. On average, hybrid beds make up < 5% of all events and <10% of the cumulative thickness. Lobe complex 1 (LC1) of Fan 4,Skoorsteenberg Formation, preserves a prominent geographical trend of hybrid beds becoming more prevalent towards the frontal fringes of a lobe complex (up to 33.2% of beds), whereas their proportion in proximal and medial lobe complex settings is <10%.Data from Unit A, Laingsburg Formation, show hybrid beds are less common in the basal (A.1) and top (A.6) subunits compared to A.2-A.5 in both core data sets. The bases and tops of some lobe complexes (A.2, A.3 and A.5.7) are observed to be slightly enriched in hybrid beds, whereas others (A.5.1, A.5.5 and A.6.1) show no hybrid beds in their bases, which does not conform to expected allogenically-driven distributions that predict more hybrid beds during the initiation of lobe complexes. Instead, the occurrence and distribution of hybrid beds in lobe complexes are interpreted to be controlled by autogenic processes, including flow transformation processes on the basin-floor meaning enrichment in frontal lobe fringe settings. Therefore, the 1D distribution of hybrid beds in lobe complexes reflects the dominant stacking pattern of lobes within a lobe complex, with enrichment at the base and top of lobe complexes due to overall progradational to retrogradational stacking patterns. Individual lobes show a wide range of hybrid bed distributions, due to stacking patterns of the component lobe elements. These findings highlight the importance of autogenic processes rather than allogenic controls in the distribution of hybrid beds, which has implications for reservoir evaluation and the assessment of lobe stacking patterns in 1D core data sets.     

Phosphorus export dynamics and hydrobiogeochemical controls across gradients of scale,topography and human impact

Concentration‐discharge (c‐Q) plots are routinely used as an integrated signal of watershed response to infer solute sources and travel pathways. However, the interpretation of c‐Q data can be difficult unless these data are fitted using statistical models. Such models are frequently applied for geogenic solutes, but it is unclear to what extent they might aid in the investigation of nutrient export patterns, particularly for total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) which is a critical driver of downstream eutrophication problems. The goal of the present study was therefore to statistically model c‐Q relations (where c is TDP concentrations) in a set of contrasting watersheds in the Northern Great Plains—ranging in size from 0.2 to 1000+ km²—to assess the controls of landscape properties on TDP transport dynamics. Six statistical models were fitted to c‐Q data, notably (a) one linear model, (b) one model assuming that c‐Q relations are driven by the mixing of end‐member waters from different landscape locations (i.e., hydrograph separation), (c) one model relying on a biogeochemical stationarity hypothesis (i.e., power law), (d) one model hypothesizing that c‐Q relations change as a function of the solute subsurface contact time (i.e., hyperbolic model), and (e) two models assuming that solute fluxes are mostly dependent on reaction rates (i.e., chemical models). Model performance ranged from mediocre (R² < 0.2) to very good (R² > 0.9), but the hydrograph separation model seemed most universal. No watershed was found to exhibit chemostatic behaviour, but many showed signs of dilution or enrichment behaviour. A tendency toward a multi‐model fit and better model performance was observed for watersheds with moderate slope and higher effective drainage area. The relatively poor model performance obtained outside these conditions illustrates the likely importance of controls on TDP concentrations in the region that are independent of flow dynamics.     

新疆库鲁克塔格地区铁磷矿成矿条件及找矿预测

通过对库鲁克塔格地区基性-超基性杂岩带成矿条件、地球物理、含矿杂岩体特征、岩体地球化学等几个方面的综合研究。将库鲁克塔格地区基性-超基性杂岩划分出卡乌留克塔格-团结村北山、兴地河两大杂岩矿集区。总结了控矿因素与成矿规律,建立找矿标志,进行了成矿远景预测,划分出7个成矿远景区,通过预测首次发现铁磷矿床与矿化带,为在我国北方寻找内生磷矿拓展了方向。     

Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil

Peak Oil, which refers to the maximum possible global oil production rate, is increasingly gaining attention in both science and policy discourses. However, little is known about how this phenomenon will impact economies, despite its apparent imminence and potential dangers. In this paper, we construct a vulnerability map of the U.S. economy, combining two approaches for analyzing economic systems, i.e. input–output analysis and social network analysis (applied to economic data). Our approach reveals the relative importance of individual economic sectors, and how vulnerable they are to oil price shocks. As such, our dual-analysis helps identify which sectors, due to their strategic position, could put the entire U.S. economy at risk from Peak Oil. For the U.S., such sectors would include Iron Mills, Fertilizer Production and Transport by Air. Our findings thus provide early warnings to downstream companies about potential ‘trouble’ in their supply chain, and inform policy action for Peak Oil. Although our analysis is embedded in a Peak Oil narrative, it is just as valid and useful in the context of developing a climate roadmap toward a low carbon economy.     

EU corporate action as a driver for global emissions abatement: A structural analysis of EU international supply chain carbon dioxide emissions

Global greenhouse gas emissions driven by European consumption increasingly occur outside European borders. These non-European sources of emissions remain linked to Europe via the international supply chains of European companies. Leading companies are now measuring their supply chain emissions and taking tentative steps to reduce them. If such activities were to become widespread, then an opportunity may exist for European industry to drive significant emissions abatement beyond European borders. This paper provides the first analysis into the maximum potential influence European industry has over its non-European supply chain emissions. The analysis is performed at the level of aggregate industry sectors using a global Multi-Regional Input–Output model. The Total Consumption Attribution method is used to estimate the potential influence of different European industries with detailed decompositions carried out using Structural Path Analysis techniques. The potential influence of European industry over non-European supply chain emissions is found to be greater than one gigatonne of carbon dioxide. The European manufacturing sector is found to have the greatest potential influence over non-European emissions via relatively short supply chains that entail few international border crossings. The results presented in this paper provide initial evidence in support of the development of European climate policies aimed at stimulating supply chain emissions reductions activities within European companies     

International trade undermines national emission reduction targets: New evidence from air pollution

Many developed countries in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol have been able to report decreasing emissions, and some have officially fulfilled their CO₂ reduction commitments. This is in part because current reporting and regulatory regimes allow these countries to displace emissions intensive production offshore. Using a new highly detailed account of emissions embodied in international trade we investigate this phenomenon of emissions leakage. We independently confirm previous findings that adjusting for trade, developed countries emissions have increased, not decreased. We find that the sectors successfully holding or lowering their domestic emissions are often the same as those increasing their imports of embodied CO₂. We also find that the fastest growing flow paths of embodied CO₂ largely originate outside the Kyoto Annex B signatory nations. Finally, we find that historically the same phenomenon of emissions displacement has already occurred for air pollution, with the result that despite aggressive legislation in major emitters total global air pollution emissions have increased. If regulatory policies do not account for embodied imports, global emissions are likely to rise even if developed countries emitters enforce strong national emissions targets.     

Stochastic strong ground motion simulations in sparsely-monitored regions: A validation and sensitivity study on the 13 March 1992 Erzincan (Turkey) earthquake

Stochastic simulations have recently become quite popular for estimating synthetic ground motion time histories. For seismically active regions that are not well-monitored or studied extensively, input parameters of the simulations should be carefully selected as the reliability of the simulation results directly depends on the accuracy of the input parameters. In the first part of this study, 13 March 1992 Erzincan (eastern Turkey) earthquake (Mw=6.6), which is recorded at only three strong ground motion stations, is simulated using the stochastic finite-fault method. The source and regional path parameters for this event are adopted from previously validated studies whereas the local site parameters are derived herein. In the second part of the paper, sensitivity of the simulation results with respect to small changes in selected input seismic parameters is investigated. The parameters for which sensitivities are computed include stress drop, crustal shear-wave quality factor and kappa operator. A change of 20% in stress drop value results in 14% change in PGA, whereas a 20% difference in the Q₀ value causes 17% change in PGA, and a 20% variation in kappa leads to 15% difference in PGA. Numerical experiments presented in this study prove that the ground motion simulations are prone to trade-off between the source, path and site filters. Hence, input models must be implemented carefully for reliable synthetic ground motions.     

Preliminary research on CBM enrichment models of low-rank coal and its geological controls: A case study in the middle of the southern Junggar Basin,NW China

To date, prospecting work on low-rank coalbed methane (CBM) resources in the middle of the southern Junggar Basin is still in the primary stage, and only a few CBM exploration wells or pilot wells have been deployed in local regions. Systemic understanding of CBM reservoir-forming conditions and geological controlling factors is lacking in the study area, resulting in the mismatch between CBM well deployment and actual geological conditions, as well as poor exploration efficiency. In this paper, the geological controlling effects of the structure, sedimentation, and hydrogeology on CBM enrichment are systematically discussed for the first time, based on the early CBM exploration achievements. The results show that the Xishanyao coal and the Badaowan coal are developed in the upper and lower part of the neutral surface of a fold, respectively. The reservoir-forming conditions of the Badaowan coal are not discussed in this paper due to its poor development. The Xishanyao coal that developed in the axial part of the syncline is most beneficial to CBM enrichment with concentrated extrusion stress and great methane adsorption capacity, while the axial part of the anticline is not favorable for CBM preservation with large tensional stress. The gas content of the Xishanyao thick seams developed in the syncline is higher (average of 4.63–6.34 m³/t) than that in the monocline (average of 2.84–4.56 m³/t). Reverse faulting is more beneficial to CBM enrichment than normal faulting, due to the better sealing capability. The gas content of the Xishanyao coal is obviously influenced by the coal thickness and its roof lithology. The hydrodynamic conditions and total dissolved solids (TDS) values of coalbed water range greatly on regional scale, which leads to a deeper methane weathering zone in the middle-west areas (>1119.62 m) than the eastern Liu-huanggou areas (<501.71 m) and have an important influence on exploration target optimization of CBM exploration wells. Combined with the geological characteristics of the structure, sedimentation and hydrogeology, three CBM enrichment models are proposed in this paper (i.e., broad fold model, northward monocline model and overlying composite model). The reservoir-forming processes and development positions of these CBM enrichment models are discussed systematically to provide a scientific basis for selecting CBM exploration target zones.