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淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架,即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度,研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明,概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值,特别当预报不确定度较大时,概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。 相似文献
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A combined gravity map over the Indian Peninsular Shield (IPS) and adjoining oceans brings out well the inter-relationships between the older tectonic features of the continent and the adjoining younger oceanic features. The NW–SE, NE–SW and N–S Precambrian trends of the IPS are reflected in the structural trends of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal suggesting their probable reactivation. The Simple Bouguer anomaly map shows consistent increase in gravity value from the continent to the deep ocean basins, which is attributed to isostatic compensation due to variations in the crustal thickness. A crustal density model computed along a profile across this region suggests a thick crust of 35–40 km under the continent, which reduces to 22/20–24 km under the Bay of Bengal with thick sediments of 8–10 km underlain by crustal layers of density 2720 and 2900/2840 kg/m3. Large crustal thickness and trends of the gravity anomalies may suggest a transitional crust in the Bay of Bengal up to 150–200 km from the east coast. The crustal thickness under the Laxmi ridge and east of it in the Arabian Sea is 20 and 14 km, respectively, with 5–6 km thick Tertiary and Mesozoic sediments separated by a thin layer of Deccan Trap. Crustal layers of densities 2750 and 2950 kg/m3 underlie sediments. The crustal density model in this part of the Arabian Sea (east of Laxmi ridge) and the structural trends similar to the Indian Peninsular Shield suggest a continent–ocean transitional crust (COTC). The COTC may represent down dropped and submerged parts of the Indian crust evolved at the time of break-up along the west coast of India and passage of Reunion hotspot over India during late Cretaceous. The crustal model under this part also shows an underplated lower crust and a low density upper mantle, extending over the continent across the west coast of India, which appears to be related to the Deccan volcanism. The crustal thickness under the western Arabian Sea (west of the Laxmi ridge) reduces to 8–9 km with crustal layers of densities 2650 and 2870 kg/m3 representing an oceanic crust. 相似文献
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Introduction Sichuan-Yunnan region, located in the east margin of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetean) Plateau, is a transitional zone between the rapidly upheaving Tibetean Plateau and relatively steady Yangtze Platform. Under the pressure exerted by the northward movement of Indian Plate, Sichuan-Yunnan region has been undergone strong deformation and regmagenesis, becoming one of the regions with the most intensive seismicity in the world. The research on the tectonics and seismicity there is alw… 相似文献
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Roberto Sulpizio Daniela Mele Pierfrancesco Dellino Luigi La Volpe 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2005,67(8):743-767
The combined use of field investigation and laboratory analyses allowed the detailed stratigraphic reconstruction of the Pollena eruption (472 AD) of Somma-Vesuvius. Three main eruptive phases were recognized, related either to changes in the eruptive processes and/or to relative changes of melt composition. The eruption shows a pulsating behavior with deposition of pyroclastic fall beds and generation of dilute and dense pyroclastic density currents (PDC). The eruptive mechanisms and transportation dynamics were reconstructed for the whole eruption. Column heights were between 12 and 20 km, corresponding to mass discharge rates (MDR) of 7×106 kg/s and 3.4×107 kg/s. Eruptive dynamics were driven by magmatic fragmentation of a phono-tephritic to tephri-phonolitic magma during Phases I and II, whereas phreatomagmatic fragmentation dominated Phase III. Magma composition varies between phonolitic and tephritic-phonolitic, with melt viscosity likely not in excess of 103 Pa s. The volume of the pyroclastic fall deposits, calculated by using of proximal isopachs, is 0.44 km3. This increases to 1.38 km3 if ash volumes are extrapolated on a log thickness vs. square root area diagram using one distal isopach and column height.Editorial responsibility: R Cioni 相似文献
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Craig T. Simmons 《Hydrogeology Journal》2005,13(1):116-119
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Diagnosing snow accumulation errors in a rain‐snow transitional environment with snow board observations
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Diagnosing the source of errors in snow models requires intensive observations, a flexible model framework to test competing hypotheses, and a methodology to systematically test the dominant snow processes. We present a novel process‐based approach to diagnose model errors through an example that focuses on snow accumulation processes (precipitation partitioning, new snow density, and snow compaction). Twelve years of meteorological and snow board measurements were used to identify the main source of model error on each snow accumulation day. Results show that modeled values of new snow density were outside observational uncertainties in 52% of days available for evaluation, while precipitation partitioning and compaction were in error 45% and 16% of the time, respectively. Precipitation partitioning errors mattered more for total winter accumulation during the anomalously warm winter of 2014–2015, when a higher fraction of precipitation fell within the temperature range where partition methods had the largest error. These results demonstrate how isolating individual model processes can identify the primary source(s) of model error, which helps prioritize future research. 相似文献