抗差贝叶斯估计及应用

当未知参数具有先验期望和方差，且观测值与未知参数先验值均服从正态分布时，最小二乘贝叶斯估计将给出参数的最优解。然而当观测值和参数先验值的实际分布有悖于正态假设时，经典贝叶斯估计使估值偏高。本文基于常用的M估计原理，对三种类型的误差模式，导出了M－LS、LS－M和M－M三种抗差贝叶斯估计解式和影响函数；讨论了相应的计算方法；给出了参数验后方差表达式。     

Publication practices in physical and human geography: a comment on Nigel Thrift’s ‘The future of geography’

This note expands on, and in some respects challenges, the distinction Thrift (Geoforum 33 (2002) 291) makes between the publication practices of young human and physical geographers. Evidence on highly-cited papers by eminent British geographers is used to suggest that human geographers have been publishing mainly in human-geography journals, but physical geographers in a wider range of outlets, for at least two decades; and that the most influential papers of all, human or physical, have generally been in multi- or inter-disciplinary journals. Publication in ‘non-geographical’ journals is desirable since it helps geographers have a wider impact. Conversely, the discipline is harmed if influential outsiders perceive geographers as only concerned with internal debates and seeking to impress each other.     

孟州市水平能见度变化特征及影响因子分析

利用孟州市1998～2004年气象资料,统计分析了孟州市水平能见度的变化特征及影响因子,结果表明：春季水平能见度最好,夏、秋季一般,冬季最差;若无明显天气过程影响,无论是夏半年还是冬半年,上午水平能见度较差,下午水平能见度较好,峰值出现在15～17时;气象和非气象因素对水平能见度有一定的制约关系,但并非简单的线性关系,在不同季节、不同时段,各因素的作用不同.     

驻马店秋季暴雨成因及预报

利用驻马店1991～2001年9～10月历史降水资料、天气图资料及数值预报产品，分析了产生秋季暴雨天气的环流形势和影响系统，选取了预报因子，建立了预报方程。     

壤中气汞量测量影响因素分析

根据多年工程地震探测实践和观测研究结果，阐述了在野外取样过程中，人为因素和自然因素对壤中气汞量测量的影响．讨论了排除影响的方法并提出了在工程地震中壤中气汞量测量合理的取样深度和取样体积     

地形影响下冷锋的变形及锢囚

根据传统理论，将锋面看成密度的零级不连续面，设计了一个二层锋面模式，分别研究了东西走向与东北－西南走向的地形影响下冷锋的变形及锢囚现象。分析表明：不同高度的地形对于冷锋变形及锢囚的影响不同，同一高度的地形对于不同强度的冷锋运动也有不同的影响。通过分析研究，形象、直观地揭示了地形影响下冷锋变形及锢囚的一些规律，并与实际天气现象做了一些对比。此外，还分析了山区冷锋的垂直结构，指出冷锋在爬山时锋面中层会出现“隆起”现象，这反映了地形对于冷锋的非线性相互作用；锋面的这种“隆起”现象非常类似于气流过山时形成的“涌浪”（ｂｏｒｅ）。     

Les auditeurs polonais des cours de minéralogie de René Just Haüy au Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle,Paris

The paper analyses a list of thirty-four Poles, listeners to the mineralogy lectures given by R.-J. Haüy at MNHN in Paris. These students played an important role in the history of Polish Earth Sciences (S. Staszic and F. Drzewiński), but also in other scientific fields (J. Markowski, I. Ab?amowicz, F. Drzewiński, M.A. Paw?owicz, J.K. Skrodzki, E.K. Nowicki), and even in political and cultural life of Poland (A. Downarowicz, J. Weyssenhoff, S. Plater, J. Bieliński, F. Potocki). This paper presents later relations between R.-J. Haüy and his Polish students. A possibility of the Poles' attendance to mineralogy lectures given at other Parisian scientific institutions, like the ‘École des mines’ and the ‘College de France’, is also discussed. To cite this article: R. Tarkowski, P. Daszkiewicz, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Enhancing a GIS Cellular Automata Model of Land Use Change: Bayesian Networks, Influence Diagrams and Causality

Cellular Automata (CA) models at present do not adequately take into account the relationship and interactions between variables. However, land use change is influenced by multiple variables and their relationships. The objective of this study is to develop a novel CA model within a geographic information system (GIS) that consists of Bayesian Network (BN) and Influence Diagram (ID) sub‐models. Further, the proposed model is intended to simplify the definition of parameter values, transition rules and model structure. Multiple GIS layers provide inputs and the CA defines the transition rules by running the two sub‐models. In the BN sub‐model, land use drivers are encoded with conditional probabilities extracted from historical data to represent inter‐dependencies between the drivers. Using the ID sub‐model, the decision of changing from one land use state to another is made based on utility theory. The model was applied to simulate future land use changes in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), Canada from 2001 to 2031. The results indicate that the model is able to detect spatio‐temporal drivers and generate various scenarios of land use change making it a useful tool for exploring complex planning scenarios.     

人工拟合地震动时程参数对场地反应的影响分析

采用目标谱拟合法人工合成地震动时程,拟合过程中对包络线参数进行定量的变化,进行土层地震反应分析.根据其对场地反应的影响,讨论时程参数对人工拟合地震动时程的影响规律,为场地抗震设防参数的选取提供依据.研究结果表明:t1、t2和c不同时,所拟合的地震动时程对土层地震反应结果有较大影响,其影响程度与土层结构关系密切.     

淮北煤田宿临矿区现今地温场分布特征及其影响因素

淮北煤田是我国华东地区最主要的能源供给基地之一,研究其现今地温场特征既是强烈的现实要求,也具有十分重要的理论意义.本文在淮北煤田宿临矿区区域地质研究的基础上,根据位于宿临矿区内不同构造单元中的8个主要煤矿井田及其邻近区域111个钻孔的测温数据,绘制了矿区现今地温\|深度关系图、现今地温梯度\|深度关系图以及不同构造单元的现今地温梯度分布图,分析了宿临矿区现今地温场的分布特征.研究表明,宿临矿区现今地温梯度分布范围介于1.50～3.80 ℃/hm,整个矿区平均现今地温梯度约为2.65 ℃/hm,与华北其他主要能源盆地相比有所差异.宿临矿区现今地温梯度在相同构造单元内分布具有褶皱隆起区高、断裂密集区域高的特点;不同构造单元中井田的平均现今地温梯度相比较则表现出由东部构造单元至西部构造单元逐步增高的趋势.分析表明,区内现今地温场主要受构造格局和岩性变化影响.