The rapidly shrinking cryopshere in the past decade：an interpretation of cryospheric changes from IPCC WGI Sixth Assessment Report北大核心CSCD

The Working Group I report of the Sixth Assessment Report（AR6）of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）was released in August 2021. Base on updated and expanding data, AR6 presented the improved assessment of past changes and processes of cryosphere. AR6 also predicted the future changes us⁃ ing the models in CMIP6. The components of cryosphere were rapid shrinking under climate warming in the last decade. There were decreasing trends in Arctic sea-ice area and thickness. Sea-ice loss was significant. The Greenland Ice Sheet, the Antarctic Ice Sheet and all glaciers lost more mass than in any other decade. Global warming over the last decades had led to widespread permafrost warming, active layer thickness increasing and subsea permafrost extent reducing. Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere also decreased significantly. However, the variations of snow depth and snow water equivalent showed great spatial heterogeneity. The rapid shrinking of the cryosphere accelerated the global mean sea level rise. The impact of human activities on cryo⁃ sphere will become more significant in the future. The Arctic sea-ice area will decrease, and the Arctic Ocean will likely become practically sea ice-free. The Greenland Ice Sheet, the Antarctic Ice Sheet and glaciers will continue to lose mass throughout this century. Permafrost and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent will con⁃ tinue to decrease as global climate continues to warm. In addition, there are still uncertainties in the prediction of cryosphere due to the absence of observations, the poor sensitivity of models to the components and processes of cryosphere, and the inexplicit represent of the mechanism of light-absorbing impurities. More attentions should be paid on these issues in the future. © 2022 Science Press (China). All rights reserved.     

Remote sensing-derived national land cover land use maps: a comparison for Malawi

Reliable land cover land use (LCLU) information, and change over time, is important for Green House Gas (GHG) reporting for climate change documentation. Four different organizations have independently created LCLU maps from 2010 satellite imagery for Malawi for GHG reporting. This analysis compares the procedures and results for those four activities. Four different classification methods were employed; traditional visual interpretation, segmentation and visual labelling, digital clustering with visual identification and supervised signature extraction with application of a decision rule followed by analyst editing. One effort did not report classification accuracy and the other three had very similar and excellent overall thematic accuracies ranging from 85 to 89%. However, despite these high thematic accuracies there were very significant differences in results. National percentages for forest ranged from 18.2 to 28.7% and cropland from 40.5 to 53.7%. These significant differences are concerns for both remote-sensing scientists and decision-makers in Malawi.     

Shortwave cloud radiative forcing on major stratus cloud regions in AMIP-type simulations of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Cloud and its radiative effects are major sources of uncertainty that lead to simulation discrepancies in climate models. In this study, shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) over major stratus regions is evaluated for Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations of models involved in the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Over stratus regions, large deviations in both climatological mean and seasonal cycle of SWCF are found among the models. An ambient field sorted by dynamic (vertical motion) and thermodynamic (inversion strength or stability) regimes is constructed and used to measure the response of SWCF to large-scale controls. In marine boundary layer regions, despite both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models being able to capture well the center and range of occurrence frequency for the ambient field, most of the models fail to simulate the dependence of SWCF on boundary layer inversion and the insensitivity of SWCF to vertical motion. For eastern China, there are large differences even in the simulated ambient fields. Moreover, almost no model can reproduce intense SWCF in rising motion and high stability regimes. It is also found that models with a finer grid resolution have no evident superiority than their lower resolution versions. The uncertainties relating to SWCF in state-of-the-art models may limit their performance in IPCC experiments.     

气候变暖条件下水文循环变化检测与归因研究的几点认识

气候变化检测与归因的实践指南(GPGP)综合了4种检测归因方法,它囊括了目前研究这一因果链采用的不同途径。自1990年政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一次评估报告以来,气候变化的检测与归因从气温升高和其他系统或变量变化趋势的研究开始,经历了从全球、半球、海洋与陆地、七大洲乃至区域尺度的细化进程。人为气候变化的指纹检测与归因方法已普遍用于全球大尺度水文循环要素——纬度带平均降水、强降水、径流、比湿、水汽含量等时空型态变化的研究,个别地也应用到流域尺度,如以冰雪融水补给为主的河流的天然流量、积雪和最低温度变化的研究。对于以降水为主,且受人类活动干扰较大的流域,观测的水文循环要素变化的检测与归因,大多数聚焦于观测的气候要素及非气候变量对其的影响,而不回答变化是自然的还是人为强迫引起的。这种方法要求高质量长系列的观测数据、先进的统计检验技术以及物理基础好的水文模型。对于水文循环要素对气候变化敏感的流域,若观测数据满足要求,则采用正规的检测与归因方法或最优指纹法识别外强迫及驱动因子的影响研究,将具有重要科学意义和发展前景。     

Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by CMIP3 Models

The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP3） were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest （SW） and Northeast China （NE）. The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai （YH） Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV （Generalized Ex- treme Values） distributions. The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions, but reasonable values were calculated for the North China （NC） and NE regions. These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models. Nonetheless, models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.     

针对IPCC评估报告中海洋碳循环的疑问——δ13C收支平衡法的验证

 通过对比IPCC历次评估报告中全球碳循环的收支发现,尽管评估报告在估算各主要碳库及其间的通量时差别不大,但表层至中深层海水间溶解无机碳通量却存在巨大差异。利用δ¹³C的收支平衡检验了这一通量的适用范围,结果表明：IPCC 1996年和2007年评估报告对此通量估计过大,而1990年和2001年评估报告估计偏小。     

Emission of methane and nitrous oxides from agricultural soils and related global warming potentials of Murshidabad District,West Bengal

Agricultural activities emit substantial amounts of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxides (N2O), the two important greenhouse gases (GHG) with high global warming potentials (GWP). So far, many studies have already been carried out at national and state level, but lack micro‐level (district or block‐level) inventory in India. The present study sheds light on the flux of CH4 and N2O (from all possible sources) from agricultural soil of various blocks in the Murshidabad district, based on the inventory prepared, using the IPCC methodology, with adjusted emission factors and coefficients appropriate for the local level. The economy of the Murshidabad district almost completely rests on agriculture as more than 80 per cent of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on it for their livelihood. Paddy is the dominating crop, cultivated on more than 60 per cent of the gross cropped area. The present work is based on the review of various literature and reports collected from respective state government offices and websites. Results show that CH4 and N2O emission from the agricultural fields are 126.405 Gg and 0.652 Gg respectively for the year 2011?12 with a large scale spatial variation (block‐level) within the district.     

IPCC国家温室气体清单指南精细化的主要内容和启示

作为IPCC新一轮气候变化综合评估的组成部分,IPCC国家温室气体清单指南进入了正式的精细化阶段,将在2019年形成最终成果,与现有的《IPCC2006指南》合并使用,为“适用于所有缔约方的”《巴黎协定》的实施奠定基础。精细化工作分为提供新方法、更新已有内容、补充/澄清已有内容等三大类,共有107个“精细化点”,涵盖通用方法论、能源活动、工业过程、农业林业和其他土地利用、废弃物等各个领域和部门。中国共有12名专家参与此次工作。建议中国科研工作者尽快以英文著述的形式发表相关成果,提高中国文献的引用率;鉴于中国已具备根据最新指南要求编制清单的能力,建议未来国家温室气体清单的编制尽可能全面转向《IPCC2006指南》及其增补和精细化内容。