从风险认知到风险数量化分类

伴随着社会经济和科技的发展,对风险问题的研究成为风险管理的重要一环,风险分类是进行风险保险、风险管理以及建立风险信息数据库的基础。拟从风险认知的角度,通过人们目前比较关注的41种风险构建了风险0 1判断矩阵,用Hayashi数量化理论III,通过Matlab软件,对构建的0 1风险矩阵进行判断计算,得到风险分类图。通过验证,用Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ对风险的聚类可以取得很好的类别区分效果,类内的风险种类组合与现有的几种政策管理分类框架中的风险类别组合吻合;该方法为风险的数值分类提供了新的思路。     

UV-Vis spectrophotometric and XAFS studies of ferric chloride complexes in hyper-saline LiCl solutions at 25-90 °C

The speciation and thermodynamic properties of ferric chloride complexes in hydrothermal solutions and hypersaline brines are still poorly understood, despite the importance of this element as a micronutrient and ore-component. Available experimental data are limited to room temperature and relatively low chloride concentrations. This paper reports results of UV-Vis spectrophotometric and synchrotron XAFS experiments of ferric chloride complexes in chloride concentrations up to 15 m and at temperatures of 25-90 °C. Qualitative interpretation of the UV-Vis spectra shows that FeCl²⁺, FeCl₂⁺, FeCl_3(aq) and FeCl₄⁻ were present in the experimental solutions. As chloride concentrations increase, higher ligand number complexes become important with FeCl₄⁻ predominating in solutions containing more than 10 m at 25 °C. The predominance fields of FeCl_3(aq) and FeCl₄⁻ expand to lower Cl concentrations with increasing T. Both XANES and UV-Vis spectra reveal a major change in the geometry of the complex between FeCl₂⁺ and FeCl_3(aq). EXAFS data confirm that the number of chloride ligands increases with increasing chloride concentration and show that Fe³⁺, FeCl²⁺ and FeCl₂⁺ share an octahedral geometry. FeCl_3(aq) could be either tetrahedral or trigonal dipyramidal, while FeCl₄⁻ is expected to be tetrahedral. EXAFS data support a tetrahedral geometry for FeCl₄⁻, especially at 90 °C, but do not allow to distinguish between a tetrahedral or trigonal dipyramidal geometry for FeCl_3(aq) because of similar Fe-Cl distances. At room temperature, EXAFS data suggest that FeCl_3(aq) may be a mixture of octahedral and tetrahedral or trigonal dipyramidal forms.The room temperature formation constants for three ferric chloride complexes (FeCl₂⁺, FeCl_3(aq) and FeCl₄⁻) determined from the UV data are generally in good agreement with previous studies. Calculations based on the properties extrapolated to 300 °C show that hematite solubility is much higher than previously estimated, and that the high orders complexes FeCl_3(aq) and FeCl₄⁻ are important at high temperatures even in solutions with low chloride concentrations. The accuracy of these properties is limited by a poor understanding of activity-composition relationships in concentrated electrolytes, and by limitations in the available experimental techniques and extrapolation algorithms; however, the inclusion of higher order complexes in numerical models of ore transport and deposition allows for a more accurate qualitative prediction of Fe behaviour in hydrothermal and hypersaline systems.     

A Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling approach to selection of estimation techniques for fitting extreme floods

The problem of fitting a probability distribution, here log-Pearson Type III distribution, to extreme floods is considered from the point of view of two numerical and three non-numerical criteria. The six techniques of fitting considered include classical techniques (maximum likelihood, moments of logarithms of flows) and new methods such as mixed moments and the generalized method of moments developed by two of the co-authors. The latter method consists of fitting the distribution using moments of different order, in particular the SAM method (Sundry Averages Method) uses the moments of order 0 (geometric mean), 1 (arithmetic mean), –1 (harmonic mean) and leads to a smaller variance of the parameters. The criteria used to select the method of parameter estimation are:

Detection of langmuir solitons: implications for type III burst emission mechanisms at 2ω PE

We present the experimental verification of existing theoretical models of emission mechanisms of solar type III bursts at the second harmonic of the plasma frequency, _pe . This study is based on the detection of Langmuir and envelope solitons by the Ulysses spacecraft inside three type III burst source regions. We show that the oscillating-two-stream instability, coherent radiation by Langmuir solitons and stochastic phase mixing of the Langmuir waves in the strong turbulence regime are the appropriate emission mechanisms at 2 _pe .     

Biogeochemistry of iron in an acidic lake

In this paper, the fate of iron in Lake Cristallina, an acidic lake in the Alps of Switzerland, is discussed. A simple conceptual model is developed in order to explain the observed diel variation in dissolved iron(II) concentration. Biotite weathering provides reduced iron that is oxidized and subsequently precipitated in the lake. The amorphous Fe(III)hydroxide (FeOOH xH₂O), found in the sediments of Lake Cristallina, is an Fe(II) oxidation product. This oxygenation reaction is most probably catalyzed by bacteria surfaces, as indicated by the relatively high estimated oxidation rate compared to the oxidation rate of the homogeneous oxidation of inorganic Fe(II) species at the ambient pH of Lake Cristallina (pH 5.4 at 4 °C) and by the scanning electron micrograph pictures. Under the influence of light, these amorphous iron(III)hydroxide phases are reductively dissolved. The net concentration of Fe(II) reflects the balance of the reductive dissolution and the oxidation/precipitation reactions and tends to parallel the light intensity, leading to a diurnal variation in the Fe(II) concentration. The rate of the photochemical reductive dissolution of Lake Cristallina iron(III)hydroxides is greatly enhanced in situ and in the laboratory by addition of oxalate to the lake water.     

The interpretation and highlights on mitigation of climate change in IPCC AR6 WGIII report北大核心CSCD

2022年4月4日,IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》报告和决策者摘要发布。报告全面评估了2010年以来减缓气候变化领域的最新科学进展,为国际社会深度认识和理解全球温室气体排放情况、不同温升水平下的减排路径以及可持续发展背景下的气候变化减缓和适应行动等提供了重要科学依据。基于报告主要结论,围绕温室气体排放的区域差异、减缓路径分类、与土地利用相关的排放评估及CO去除技术评估等方面的亮点,文中提出在应对气候变化减缓政策行动中,中国应坚定“双碳”战略目标,在综合考虑经济发展阶段和资源禀赋差异背景下,将可持续发展、公平和消除贫困植根于社会发展愿景中实施减缓路径,并加快提升气候变化综合评估核心科学技术的研发进度,以进一步提升国际影响力和话语权。     

Eu(Ⅲ)溶液对膨润土-砂混合物渗透性能影响研究

在高放废物处置库长期运营过程中包封容器将发生破坏,核素会向外界迁移,缓冲回填材料的水力传导系数是评价处置库工程屏障性能的重要指标。采用柔性壁渗透仪,研究2.0×10-5 mol/L的Eu(III)溶液作为渗入液时膨润土-砂混合物的渗透特性。结果表明,膨润土-砂混合物的水力传导系数K=(2.07⁵.23)×10-10 cm/s;在05.23)×10-10 cm/s;在0⁵0%掺砂率范围内,膨润土-砂混合物吸水膨胀过程中渗透性能随掺砂率增大时没有明显的变化,能够满足高放废物处置库缓冲回填材料低渗透性的要求。使用有效黏土密度的概念,得到膨润土-砂混合物的体积膨胀率随初始有效黏土密度的增大呈指数增大的趋势;混合物水力传导系数的对数值与有效黏土密度存在良好的线性衰减关系;与蒸馏水相比,渗入液(ECDD)为2.0×10-5 mol/L的Eu(III)溶液时,膨润土-砂混合物的水力传导系数较小,可能是由于渗入液黏滞性的影响。     

不同形貌纳米二氧化锰对三价砷吸附性能及机理研究

以高锰酸钾和一水硫酸锰为原料,采用水热合成法,合成得到了花状和海胆状纳米二氧化锰吸附剂。研究了两种吸附剂对三价砷的吸附选择性、循环利用性及除砷机理。结果表明,阴离子对花状和海胆状吸附剂吸附三价砷的影响顺序略有不同,其分别为PO■ CO■HCO~-_3NO~-_3SO■Cl~-,PO■HCO■SO■CO■NO~-_3Cl~-;花状和海胆状二氧化锰经三次循环再生后的除砷率分别为65.5%和75.1%;两种吸附剂对三价砷的吸附机理主要为氧化吸附作用。     

Chromium speciation and existing natural attenuation conditions in lagoonal and pond sediments in the former chemical plant of Porto-Romano (Albania)

Near the outskirts of the Albanian port of Durres on the Adriatic Coast, at a place called Porto Romano, an old chemical complex has been producing chromate salts for a period of ∼20 years (1972–1993). As a result large quantities of chromite ore processing residue (COPR) waste were released mainly as suspended particles and/or dissolved species in effluents, which settled in a decantation pond area, 200 × 250 m in size, east of the industrial plant. Unfortunately, pollutants were spread out with time. Knowing that chromium mobility and toxicity in natural settings is species dependent, the species characterization has been carried out in different sampling media (pond sediments, lagoonal sediments and water samples). Five pond profiles were sampled within the decantation area up to a depth of ∼1 m, till the underlying Quaternary lagoonal silty-clays were reached. Total Cr content is highly variable with values between 1,130 and 24,409 mg/kg which is clearly higher than the defined local background values for lagoonal silty-clays (198 mg/kg of Cr). Leaching of Cr(VI) especially occurs in the pond sediments, which are low in OC, CEC and clay content, under acidic and neutral pH conditions (e.g. up to ∼2,230 mg/kg Cr(VI) leached from a sample containing a total concentration of Cr 12,200 mg/kg). Moreover, leaching of the Cr(III) occurs only under strictly acidic conditions (maximum 1,144 mg/kg leached from a sample containing a total Cr-concentration of 17,608 mg/kg). In this study also a number of natural attenuation conditions (i.e. reaction with lagoonal clays rich in organic matter and iron as well as isomorphous substitution) have been recognized.     

The surface properties of Malan loess and its application to removing Cr（Ⅲ） from contaminated water

Loess has unique compositions and structural characteristics and can be used for environmental protection. Differences between the surface characteristics of the Malan loess from the suburbs of Taiyuan, Shanxi Province before and after reaction with Cr(III) solution were studied by SEM/EDS, IR and XRD. The results showed that the Malan loess has a strong ability to remove Cr(III) from the solution. The surface characteristics of loess include an effect on Cr(III) in solution, as supported by the strong test evidence including the disappearance of Cr peak in the EDS spectrum, the disappearance of carbonate characteristic peaks in the infrared spectrogram, and the positive correlation between Fe and Cr peaks.