Agrarian Dynamics, Population Growth and Resource Management: The Case of Burundi

What role has intense population pressure played (and continues to play) in ancient and contemporary transformations in Burundian agriculture? A considerable disincentive to development and source of imbalance for some, an engine of agricultural growth for others: does this age-old debate still make sense in the present context? Based on an extensive study of agrarian dynamics, the reconstruction of the different agrarian systems that have been in place in Burundi, and an investigation of the phases of major transformations that have enabled the passage of one system to another, the author ventures a rereading of the most commonly cited interpretations of Malthus and Boserup, and proposes a new approach to this fundamental question.     

The large-scale extraction of microvertebrate fossils from sediment residues using Interfacial Methods

The wet-sieving of sediments on the tonne scale has been used, probably since the mid-1800s, to search for Mesozoic mammal teeth and other microvertebrate fossils. Unfortunately, more sediment can usually be washed than can be searched, because of the very laborious nature of hand-picking non-enriched sediment residues.Such residues can be enriched cheaply and effectively using Interfacial Methods, which exploit differential wetting phenomena. Placed in a suspension of kerosene in water, microvertebrate fossils become wetted preferentially with the kerosene, which then allows them to adhere to granules of paraffin wax; these are removed and melted to release the fossils.One experiment is described where 8.92 kg of a quartz-rich residue (from 13 tonnes of raw sediment) was processed using apparatus centred on a cement mixer.Smaller scale ‘low tech’ apparatus designed for use in the field and improvised from various items of household waste, etc., were used to enrich various sediment residues weighing between 500 g and 1582 g.Theoretical aspects of the process were investigated experimentally with an eye to their practical significance.     

Hydrogeology in North America: past and future

This paper is a retrospective on the evolution of hydrogeology in North America over the past two centuries, and a brief speculation of its future. The history of hydrogeology is marked by developments in many different fields such as groundwater hydrology, soil mechanics, soil science, economic geology, petroleum engineering, structural geology, geochemistry, geophysics, marine geology, and more recently, ecology. The field has been enriched by the contributions of distinguished researchers from all these fields. At present, hydrogeology is in transition from a state of discovering new resources and exploiting them efficiently for maximum benefit, to one of judicious management of finite, interconnected resources that are vital for the sustenance of humans and other living things. The future of hydrogeology is likely to be dictated by the subtle balance with which the hydrological, erosional, and nutritional cycles function, and the decision of a technological society to either adapt to the constraints imposed by the balance, or to continue to exploit hydrogeological systems for maximum benefit. Although there is now a trend towards ecological and environmental awareness, human attitudes could change should large parts of the populated world be subjected to the stresses of droughts that last for many decades.

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Resumen Este articulo es una retrospectiva sobre la evolución de la hidrogeología en Norte América en los pasados dos siglos, y una breve especulación de su futuro. La historia de la hidrogeología está marcada por desarrollos en muchos campos diferentes tal como hidrología de aguas subterráneas, mecánica de suelos, ciencia del suelo, geología económica, ingeniería del petróleo, geología estructural, geoquímica, geofísica, geología marina, y más recientemente, ecología. El campo se ha enriquecido por las contribuciones de investigadores distinguidos en todos esos campos. Actualmente, la hidrogeología se encuentra en transición de un estado de descubrir nuevos recursos y explotarlos eficientemente para un beneficio máximo, a un estado de gestión juiciosa de recursos finitos, interconectados, que son vitales para el sustento de humanos y otras cosas vivientes. El futuro de la hidrogeología posiblemente esté determinado por el balance sutil con el cual funcionan los ciclos nutricionales, erosionales e hidrológicos, y la decisión de una sociedad tecnológica para ya sea adaptarse a las restricciones impuestas por el balance o para continuar con la explotación de los sistemas hidrogeológicos para un beneficio máximo. Aunque existe actualmente una tendencia hacia la conciencia ambiental y ecológica, las actitudes humanas podrían cambiar en caso de que grandes partes del mundo poblado estén sujetas a las presiones de sequías que duran por muchas décadas.

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Résumé Cet article est une rétrospective de lévolution de lhydrogéologie en Amérique du Nord sur les deux derniers siècles, et une brève évaluation de son futur. Lhistoire de lhydrogéologie est marquée par le développement de plusieurs techniques de terrain telles, lhydrologie des eaux souterraines, la mécanique des sols, les sciences du sol, la géologie économique, l ingénierie pétrolière, la géologie structurale, la géochimie, la géophysique, la géologie marine et plus récemment lécologie. La science a été enrichie par la contribution de plusieurs chercheurs distingués, provenant de toutes ces branches. A présent, lhydrogéologie est à la transition entre la volonté de découvrir de nouvelles ressources et l exploitation la plus bénéfique au possible, et un management judicieux des ressources finies, interconnectées, qui sont vitales pour l approvisionnement des hommes et autres formes de vie. Le futur de l hydrogéologie sera dicté par la balance subtile dans laquelle intervient les cycles de lhydrologie, de lérosion, de la nutrition, et la décision dune société technologique qui sadapterait aux contraintes de la balance, ou qui continuerait dexploiter les systèmes hydrologiques pour un bénéfice maximum. Par ailleurs il y a une nette tendance à inclure les aspects écologiques, les aspects environnementaux, et les changements humains qui pourraient être influencés par les modifications hydrogéologiques observées depuis une dizaine dannées.

     

The International Association of Geodesy 1862 to 1922: from a regional project to an international organization

Geodesy, by definition, requires international collaboration on a global scale. An organized cooperation started in 1862, and has become todays International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The roots of modern geodesy in the 18th century, with arc measurements in several parts of the world, and national geodetic surveys in France and Great Britain, are explained. The manifold local enterprises in central Europe, which happened in the first half of the 19th century, are described in some detail as they prepare the foundation for the following regional project. Simultaneously, Gauss, Bessel and others developed a more sophisticated definition of the Earths figure, which includes the effect of the gravity field. In 1861, the retired Prussian general J.J. Baeyer took up earlier ideas from Schumacher, Gauss, Struve and others, to propose a Central European Arc Measurement in order to study the figure of the Earth in that region. This led to a scientific organization, which soon extended from Central Europe to the whole continent and later to the globe, and changed its name in 1886 to Internationale Erdmessung (International Geodetic Association). The scientific programme also widened remarkably from more local studies based on geometric data to regional and global investigations, with gravity measurements as an important source of information. The Central Bureau of the Internationale Erdmessung was hosted at the Prussian Geodetic Institute in Potsdam, and with Baeyer as Director, developed as an efficient tool of the Association. The scientific research extended and deepened after 1886, when F.R. Helmert became Director of the Central Bureau. A stronger international participation then took place, while the influence of the German states reduced. Of great practical importance were questions of standardization and reference systems, but first attempts to interpret gravity field variations and to monitor geodynamic phenomena by geodetic methods indicated future tendencies. With the First World War and the expiry of the last international convention in 1916, the international cooperation within the frame of the Association practically came to an end, which ended the first epoch of the Association. Nevertheless, due to the strong commitment of two scientists from neutral countries, the International Latitude Service continued to observe polar motion and to deliver the data to the Berlin Central Bureau for evaluation. After the First World War, geodesy became one of the founding members of the International Union for Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), and formed one of its Sections (respectively Associations). It has been officially named the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) since 1932.     

中国近代地震学史纲要

随着西方科学在清朝末年的传入,中国近代地震学逐渐发展起来,可大体划分为与历史背景相关的3个阶段。1918年之前为第1阶段,辛亥革命推动了近代科学思想在中国的传播,出现了以中外传教士为主体的零散性地震研究;第2阶段以新文化运动为开端,中国科学社和专业学会出现,围绕海原地震开展了地震地质研究,取得了地震的救灾经验和深刻教训;国民政府期间为第3阶段,中央研究院和专业研究所建立,地震学进入以科研体制为依托的幼年发展阶段。其间,人员伤亡万人以上的大地震有3次,分别为1920年海原地震、1927年古浪地震和1933年叠溪地震。科学前辈们的艰苦奋斗为抗战胜利和民族独立做出了贡献。     

Quantitative integration of 3D and 4D seismic impedance into reservoir simulation model updating in the Norne Field

The ultimate goal of reservoir simulation in reservoir surveillance technology is to estimate long-term production forecasting and to plan development and management of petroleum fields. However, maintaining reliable reservoir models which honour available static and dynamic data, involve inherent risks due to the uncertainties in space and time of the distribution of hydrocarbons inside reservoirs. Recent applications have shown that these uncertainties can be reduced by quantitative integration of seismic data into the reservoir modelling workflows to identify which areas and reservoir attributes of the model should be updated. This work aims using seismic data to reduce ambiguity in calibrating reservoir flow simulation model with an uncertain petro-elastic model, proposing a circular workflow of inverted seismic impedance (3D and 4D) and engineering studies, with emphasis on the interface between static and dynamic models. The main contribution is to develop an updating procedure for adjusting reservoir simulation response before using it in the production forecasting and enhance the interpretive capability of reservoir properties. Accordingly, the workflow evaluates consistency of reservoir simulation model and inverted seismic impedance, assisted by production history data, to close the loop between reservoir engineering and seismic domains. The methodology is evaluated in a complex, faulted, sandstone reservoir, the Norne benchmark field, where a significant reservoir behaviour understanding (about the static and dynamic reservoir properties) is obtained towards the quantitative integration of seismic impedance data. This leads to diagnosis of the reservoir flow simulation reliability and generation of an updated simulation model consistent with observed seismic and well production history data, as well as a calibrated petro-elastic model. Furthermore, as Norne Field is a benchmark case, this study can be considered to enrich the discussions over deterministic or probabilistic history matching studies.     

A Review on Researches of Active Tectonics—History,Progress and Suggestions

This paper reviews the history and progress of research on active tectonics in China and overseas.By giving a brief introduction on the history of active tectonic research in China and other countries,the paper sums up the process and development of quantitative investigation of active tectonics since the 1980s.The focus is on the main efforts and progress made in China on certain aspects of research,such as basic surveys and applied investigation of active tectonics,the study of theories related to regional active tectonics and their kinematics and geodynamics,surveys on coupling relations between deep and shallow structures,active fault surveys and prospecting and seismic hazard assessment in urban areas,as well as the efforts made using Quaternary geochronology.Furthermore,the paper looks back on Chinese quantitative investigation of active tectonics in China and sums up cognitions derived from studies on the determination of several basic and measurable parameters of active tectonics.These parameters include the length of fault and fault segmentation,coseismic slip and cumulative slip,fault slip rate,the sequence of paleoearthquake events and the time elapsed since the most recent event.At the same time,efforts and progress made in China on assessing the long-term seismic potential for active faults and evaluating the risk from potential active fault movement have been reviewed by summarizing research on developing theories,models,methods and the application of time-dependent seismic potential to probabilistic assessment,magnitude estimation for potential earthquakes on active faults,and the forecast of potential risk caused by active fault movement.Finally,in consideration of the realities and problems in the research of active tectonics in China,the authors put forward several suggestions for issues worthy of more attention for further investigation in the future.     

地动仪研究中的五个地震学基本概念

地动仪的研究涉及历史和科学的统一。古籍文字的主要部分是对测震现象的描述,研究的学术观点和模型尽可不同,但地震学基本概念和原则是需要遵循和坚持的,方能正确把握和解读史料。针对一些专业认识上的误解,本文以地震学的基本概念和学科发展史实为依据作了必要的澄清和纠正,诸如地动仪的反应方向、对地震和非地震的不同反应、陇西地震的量化分析、地震学的实验检验、在地震科学史上的作用等。还对个别的脱离实际却被媒体高调宣传的模型实验,指出了其原则性失误。地动仪研究的重点并不局限于重建一个模型,更要探寻古人如何发现和利用了自然规律,学习和掌握地震学的基本知识。     

历史上气候变化对我国社会发展的影响初探

根据被修订过的竺氏温度变化曲线,将中国过去３０００年划分为１１个气候适宜期（暖期和变暖期）和气候非宜期（冷期和变冷期）。发现历史上的太平盛世绝大多数出现在气候适宜期,大规模的战争和农民起义以及北方民族的入侵均发生在气候非宜期。最后,对未来２００年气候变化和中国历史的发展趋势作了初步预测,主为目前的气候适宜期将持续到公元２２３０年左右。