降雨条件下岩土饱和-非饱和渗流分析

基于Buckley-Leverett两相渗流方程,提出了新的岩土饱和-非饱和渗流数学模型,利用有限差分方法给出了隐式压力显示饱和度数值求解方法,编制了饱和-非饱和渗流计算程序.结合工程实例,模拟了降雨入渗条件下边坡岩体渗流场孔隙压力变化和含水饱和度变化,模拟结果验证了所提出的模型对饱和-非饱和渗流的有效性.     

新疆乌兰乌苏物候变化规律及其对气候变化的响应

分析新疆乌兰乌苏农业气象试验站1980—2002年物候与相应气候因子资料,得出乌兰乌苏23a来气温增高,降水增多,气候增暖增湿;候鸟停留时间增长,与积温、日照时数和降水量的年变化趋势一致,除降水外,其他均存在显著正相关关系;木本植物生育期延长,与4—10月平均气温、平均相对湿度、总日照时数和总降水量趋势一致;初霜和终霜均推迟,无霜期缩短;初雪和初次积雪提前,终雪推迟,冬季雪日增长;积雪开始融化提前,完全融化推迟,融化时间增长;土壤表面开始解冻日期趋势提前,而土壤表面开始冻结日期趋势推迟。另外,通过物候与气象因子建立的最优回归方程,获得物候对气候响应的定量关系,为生态环境研究提供一定的理论依据。     

安溪雷暴24h潜势预报模型研究

利用安溪县国家气象站2004年至2015年的雷暴观测资料,分析了安溪县雷暴的气候特征及环境背景分类。并根据雷暴活动特征及雷暴天气产生的环境场条件,诊断和分析T639数值模式输出产品与雷暴观测资料的相关性,对41个相关因子做显著性检验,挑选相关性较好的9个因子做分析。对9个预报因子进行0,1化处理并进行逐步回归,最后选取850hPa垂直速度、850hpa假相当位温、700hPa温度、K指数、850hPa比湿等5个因子,建立雷暴潜势预报方程。利用2015年至2017年T639模式资料进行回代分析评估,发现当雷暴概率预报Y值>0.6时,雷暴预报准确率最高,达85.60%,且漏报率、空报率很低。再以2018年T639数值模式资料对雷暴潜势概率进行计算评估,准确率为83.84%,漏报率为5.75%,空报率为10.41%。由此可见,基于T639数值产品的雷暴潜势方程可以为安溪县雷暴天气的预警预报和防雷减灾服务提供客观的参考和依据。     

Efficient uncertainty quantification techniques in inverse problems for Richards’ equation using coarse-scale simulation models

This paper concerns efficient uncertainty quantification techniques in inverse problems for Richards’ equation which use coarse-scale simulation models. We consider the problem of determining saturated hydraulic conductivity fields conditioned to some integrated response. We use a stochastic parameterization of the saturated hydraulic conductivity and sample using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The main advantage of the method presented in this paper is the use of multiscale methods within an MCMC method based on Langevin diffusion. Additionally, we discuss techniques to combine multiscale methods with stochastic solution techniques, specifically sparse grid collocation methods. We show that the proposed algorithms dramatically reduce the computational cost associated with traditional Langevin MCMC methods while providing similar sampling performance.     

Infiltration in unsaturated soils – An analytical approach

An approximate analytical solution has been established for the well known Richards’ equation for unsaturated flow of transports in soils. Despite the importance of Richards’ equation in geotechnical and geoenvironmental applications, most solutions to the problem are generally based on numerical methods often having limitations in application. It is therefore advantageous to explore analytical solutions to the problem. The proposed solution is based on homotopy analysis method (HAM). The method is superior over traditional perturbation techniques in a sense that it is not dependent on the assumption of a small parameter as the initial step. Several simple cases have been explored to describe the application of HAM to Richards’ equation. The results obtained by HAM are also compared with existing solutions to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method.     

基于非静压模型的波浪破碎模拟

波浪破碎是海岸工程所关注的关键水动力学问题之一,而波浪破碎的数值模拟技术的研究方兴未艾。高效的浅水方程基于静压假定,而通过引入动压项建立的完全非静压模型,可成功应用于色散水波的模拟。自由表面的捕捉采用的垂向坐标变换技术,较之VOF（Volume of Fluid）模型,计算效率较高。但垂向坐标变换不能模拟大曲率自由表面变形,即波浪破碎过程。对于破碎波的模拟,一种高效的模式分裂法应用至非静压模型,即在波浪破碎局部水域将模型分裂为静压模型和非静压模型,破碎波波峰附近退化至静压模型,并持续至波浪破碎结束再恢复为动压模型。通过典型算例,验证了模式分裂法的适用性及对于波浪破碎过程的模拟精度,鉴于模式分裂法对于波浪破碎过程的模拟未引入新的概化模型,计算效率较高,可应用于大尺度的海岸带波浪的变形、破碎及越浪的数值模拟。     

Improbability of DUrca Process Constraints EOS

According to recent observational and theoretical progresses, the DUrca process （direct Urca process） may be excluded from the category of neutron star cooling mechanisms. This result, combined with the latest nuclear symmetry energy experiments, will provide us an independent way of testing the EOS （equation of state） for supernuclear density. For example, soft EOSs, such as FPS, will probably be excluded.     

Time–space fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in confined aquifers: Numerical investigation

In order to model non‐Fickian transport behaviour in groundwater aquifers, various forms of the time–space fractional advection–dispersion equation have been developed and used by several researchers in the last decade. The solute transport in groundwater aquifers in fractional time–space takes place by means of an underlying groundwater flow field. However, the governing equations for such groundwater flow in fractional time–space are yet to be developed in a comprehensive framework. In this study, a finite difference numerical scheme based on Caputo fractional derivative is proposed to investigate the properties of a newly developed time–space fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in confined aquifers in terms of the time–space fractional mass conservation equation and the time–space fractional water flux equation. Here, we apply these time–space fractional governing equations numerically to transient groundwater flow in a confined aquifer for different boundary conditions to explore their behaviour in modelling groundwater flow in fractional time–space. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed time–space fractional governing equation for groundwater flow in confined aquifers may provide a new perspective on modelling groundwater flow and on interpreting the dynamics of groundwater level fluctuations. Additionally, the numerical results may imply that the newly derived fractional groundwater governing equation may help explain the observed heavy‐tailed solute transport behaviour in groundwater flow by incorporating nonlocal or long‐range dependence of the underlying groundwater flow field.     

Inverse modeling of lichen growth curves and implications for lichenometric dating

Lichenometric dating represents a quick and affordable surface exposure dating method that has been widely used to provide a minimum age constraint on tectonic and geomorphic landscape changes as well as buildings and anthropogenic landscape changes in various settings during the late Holocene. Despite its widespread usage, this method has several limitations. Major problems relate to the sampling of lichen population on any given rock surface and the modeling of growth curves. In order to overcome these issues, it has been suggested to subdivide the rock surface into some areas and measure the largest lichen thallus on each one. However, how to express the data in terms of a probability distribution function and link it to an age of last exposure of the rock surface are still a matter of debate. Here, we propose a novel approach to the modeling of lichen growth curves by treating lichen growth as a continuous-time Markov process with a time-varying rate and additive Brownian noise. Given the growth rates, the probability distribution of the lichen population at any time can then be obtained by solving the Fokker–Planck equation. This method is illustrated using a dataset from the Huashan area of eastern China, which consists of measurements of the largest thalli on 12 rock surfaces of known age. We first build up the probability distribution of the lichen population for each rock surface based on extreme value theory and then use these to optimize the growth curve by minimizing the Jensen–Shannon divergence. A new method is also proposed to use the growth curve to map a sample of size data from an undated rock surface to the calendar age domain so as to yield a fully probabilistic estimate of the exposure age of the undated rock surface rather than a point estimate.     

A density‐dependent elastoplastic hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated compacted soils

This paper presents a three‐dimensional elastoplastic constitutive model for predicting the hydraulic and mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soils. It is based on experimental results obtained from a series of controlled‐suction triaxial tests on unsaturated compacted clay with different initial densities. Hydraulic hysteresis in the water‐retention behaviour is modelled as an elastoplastic process, with the elastic part modelled by a series of scanning curves and the elastoplastic part modelled by the main drying and wetting curves. The effect of void ratio on the water‐retention behaviour is studied using data obtained from controlled‐suction wetting–drying cyclic tests on unsaturated compacted clay with different initial densities. The effect of the degree of saturation on the stress–strain‐strength behaviour and the effect of void ratio on the water‐retention behaviour are considered in the model, as is the effect of suction on the hydraulic and mechanical behaviour. The initial density dependency of the compacted soil behaviour is modelled by experimental relationships between the initial density and the corresponding yield stress and, thereby, between the initial density and the normal compression line. The model is generalized to three‐dimensional stress states by assuming that the shapes of the failure and yield surfaces in the deviatoric stress plane are given by the Matsuoka–Nakai criterion. Model predictions of the stress–strain and water‐retention behaviour are compared with those obtained from triaxial tests with different initial densities under isotropic compression, triaxial compression and triaxial extension, with or without variation in suction. The comparisons indicate that the model accurately predicts the hydraulic and mechanical behaviour of unsaturated compacted soils with different initial densities using the same material constant. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.