基于COS-2S模型的ADCP海浪方向谱估计

美国RD公司声学多普勒流速剖面仪(ADCP)使用的波向估计算法是迭代的最大似然算法(IMLM),IMLM可以准确估计出主浪向,但波向估计结果在主浪向以外其他方向上存在由噪声带来的能量分布,使得估计结果变得不准确。设计了基于COS-2S模型的波向估计方法,模型中只含有主波向,算法在准确估计主波向同时有效去除其他方向上噪声带来的能量分布。将一种混合遗传算法(HGA)代替遗传算法(GA)应用到波浪模型的参数求解中,HGA相对GA收敛更快,可有效找出全局最优解。仿真分析和实测数据表明,HGA和IMLM都能准确估计出波浪的主浪向,但HGA可有效去除主浪向以外其他方向上噪声带来的能量分布,HGA比IMLM更加适用于海洋各种噪声存在条件下的测量环境。     

水下溢油数值模拟研究

基于Lagrange积分法和Lagrange粒子追踪法建立了一个水下溢油数值模型。该溢油模型由两个子模型组成:羽流动力模型和对流扩散模型,其中羽流动力模型用以模拟溢油的喷发阶段和浮力羽流阶段;对流扩散模型用以模拟溢油的对流扩散阶段。通过数值实验,结合实验室水槽实验和水下溢油现场实验的观测资料进行模型验证。实验结果表明,模拟结果与观测资料一致性较好,从而验证了本文溢油模型的合理性和准确性;羽流动力模型为对流扩散模型提供源,海流、海水的垂向密度结构和油滴的直径分布是影响溢油在对流扩散阶段运动和分布的主要因素。     

基于稀疏AR模型的潮流信号建模与预报

潮流信号处理与预报在很多方面具有非常重要的意义和价值。本文引入信号稀疏表示理论,构建一种稀疏AR模型,寻找各潮流数据间的历史关联性,并进行预报分析。首先由实测潮流信号进行常规AR建模,获得一组过完备稀疏基;其次随机从该过完备稀疏基抽取部分建立欠定方程组,利用稀疏优化算法获得最稀疏的AR系数;多次重复上一步,获得稀疏AR系数的平均以增强稀疏AR模型的稳定性;最后利用这些稀疏AR系数来重构或预测潮流信号。文章针对实测潮流信号,特别是存在多峰值有回流现象的潮流信号,进行了稀疏AR建模与预测的多次实验。实验结果与传统的潮流信号调和预报方法相对比,发现基于稀疏AR模型的潮流预报对于潮流存在多变的现象时,具有明显优越性,从回报结果来看,稀疏AR模型的潮流预报均方差明显小于传统潮流调和分析预报方法。     

舟山海域风暴潮特征及数值模拟研究

选择20个对舟山海域有较大影响的历史台风案例,开展定海站实测潮位数据的分析与归纳,总结得出20个台风中风暴潮过程增水最大值为5612号台风的207.1 cm,风暴潮高潮位最大值为9711号台风的283.7 cm。同时,在三维斜压水动力模型SELFE的基础上加入台风气压场和风场模块,建立了一个采用非结构三角形网格的天文潮-风暴潮耦合模型,模拟表明定海站的斜压效应较为明显,非线性耦合作用相对较弱,但两潮耦合风暴潮增水结果仍优于风暴潮单因子增水结果,与实际增水更为接近。在此基础上,以一定间隔在5612号台风原路径南北两侧各设计了2条平行路径,分别模拟两潮耦合风暴潮增水,结果表明5612号台风参数沿其原路径偏南1个最大风速半径距离的S1路径运动时可模拟得到定海站可能最大风暴潮增水为243.9 cm。最后,在S1路径下模拟可能最大风暴潮增水分别遭遇天文高、中、低潮位时的风暴潮高潮位,结果表明天文潮高潮时可得到可能最大风暴潮高潮位约为400 cm,天文中潮时次之,而天文低潮时风暴潮高潮位最低。     

Nonparametric Estimation of Undrained Shear Strength for Normally Consolidated Clays

For decades, various well-known empirical correlations have been established and commonly used to estimate the undrained shear strength of normally consolidated clays in geotechnical practice. However, there are still many contradictory cases regarding the validity of these correlations, so their applicability and reliability are questionable. In this study, an extensive geotechnical database for normally consolidated clays has been compiled. Next, a Bayesian nonparametric method is exploited to identify the most critical soil index properties in inferring the undrained shear strength and a new predictive model is proposed. Finally, the performance of the proposed predictive model is assessed and compared with two well-known correlations using an independent testing database. It confirms that the proposed model not only possesses high predictability, but also provides superior performance over other existing empirical correlations.     

Laboratory Study for Influence of Clay Content (CC) on Wave-Induced Liquefaction in Marine Sediments

In this artice, the influence of clay content on the wave-induced liquefaction in marine sediments was reported. The one-dimensional (1-D) equipment was setup with a vertical cylinder and 1.8–m–thick clayey sandy deposit and 0.2–m–thick water above the deposit. Unlike the previous experimental study for a single soil layer, this study used sand-kaolin mixtures, sand-illite mixtures, and sand-bentonite mixtures as the experimental samples. A series of experiments with 3,000 wave cycles in each test were conducted under numerous wave and soil conditions, which allowed us to examine the influence of clay content (CC) on wave-induced liquefaction in marine sediments. The experimental results showed that the clayey sandy deposit will become prone to liquefaction with the increase of CC when CC is less than a critical value, which depends on the type of clay. However, when CC is greater than the critical value, liquefaction depth will decrease as CC increases. Furthermore, when the CC value reaches a certain level, liquefaction will not occur. For example, no liquefaction occurs when CC ≥ 33% for both kaolin-sand and illite-sand mixtures and CC ≥ 16.36% for bentonite-sand mixtures.     

Study on Longitudinal Deformation Profile of Rock Mass in a Subsea Tunnel

During tunnel excavation, the deformation of surrounding rock due to the unloading of rock mass will vary with time. However, the measured displacement of surrounding rock is only a part of the actual longitudinal deformation profile. There is a need to analyze the longitudinal deformation profile to identify the deformation state and evaluate the stability of surrounding rock mass. In the present article, the variation of pre-deformation of surrounding rock due to excavation was analyzed, and the release coefficient was obtained from the measured results. For the Qingdao subsea tunnel, the measured crown settlement of surrounding rock was analyzed using the regression analysis method, and the longitudinal deformation profile of rock mass was simulated using the numerical calculation method. Moreover, based on the conditions of the subsea tunnel, a solid-fluid coupling model test was carried out to check the reliability of the numerical calculation results. The results of the model test were consistent with the numerical calculation results.     

基于LSTM的海洋表面短期风速预测研究

为实现对海面风速精确的短期预测,提出了一种基于长短期记忆(LSTM,longshort-termmemory)神经网络的短期风速预测模型,选取OceanSITES数据库中单个浮标站点采集的风速历史数据作为模型输入,经过训练设置最佳参数等步骤,实现了以LSTM方法,对该站点所在海区海面风速在各季节性代表月份海面风速的24 h短期预测。同时通过不同预测时长的实验以及与BP(back propagation)神经网络神经网络和径向基函数神经网络(radialbasisfunctionneuralnetwork,RBF)的预测效果对比实验,证明了LSTM预测方法相比上述两种神经网络预测方法,在海表面风速预测应用中的优越性。最后通过多个海域对应的站点风速数据预测实验,证明了LSTM神经网络模型的普遍适用性,由相关系数和预测误差的分析可知该方法具备应对急剧变化数据的预测稳定性,可以作为海洋表面风速短期预测的一种可靠方法。     

海底沉积物的基本地声结构与地声模型

为准确建立海底地声模型,本文探讨地声模型的基本组成和基本结构。通过样品实验室测量,分析南海海底表层沉积物的密度、孔隙度与声速随着埋深变化的关系,得出海底实际存在的低声速表面–声速缓慢变化类型、低声速表面–声速增大类型、高声速表面–声速缓慢变化类型和高声速表面–声速增大类型4种典型地声结构;对比钻探测量,分析黄海海底沉积物的密度、孔隙度与声速随埋深变化关系,得出海底地声模型分层特征与地声结构组合特征。研究表明,地声模型可以归结为4种基本地声结构的组合,通过与底层海水声速、同层内声速剖面以及与上层海底沉积物下表面声速的比较,可以建立各种海底地声模型;基于实验室测量法建立的地声模型可以作为参考地声模型,但需要考虑实际海底温度和压力梯度以及海底沉积物的频散特性等,借助于声速比校正法和频散性理论模型进行计算及修正。     

基于GF5-AHSI遥感数据的横沙浅海水深反演

高光谱遥感水深反演是一种对传统水深测量方法的补充,具有方便、快捷、经济等突出优势。本文研究区位于上海横沙,属于典型滩涂浅水区,研究数据包括GF5-AHSI高光谱遥感数据和同时期的水深数据。通过数据变换和相关分析等方法提取建模参数,利用单波段比值模型、多元线性回归模型、最优标度回归模型和BP神经网络模型实现该区域水深反演,并对4种模型反演结果的准确性进行了验证和比较。研究发现：最优标度回归模型优于其他3种模型,R2达到了0.972,RMSE为0.47 m,适用于横沙浅海水深反演。