Application of grey correlation method to evaluate potential groundwater recharge sites

Artificial recharge is a practical tool available for increasing the groundwater storage capacity. The efficiency of artificial recharge is related to various hydrogeological factors of the target area. In this study, a variable saturated groundwater flow model, FEMWATER, was used to evaluate the arrival times of recharged water that infiltrates from an artificial recharge pond to the groundwater table under various hydrogeological conditions. Forty-five arrival times were generated by FEMWATER. The relationships between the arrival times and hydrogeological factors used in the simulation of FEMWATER were analyzed by the grey correlation method. The results show the order of importance of the factors as they influence the arrival time. In order from high to low importance, they are α, D _g, θ _e, D _p, K _S and β. D _g and D _p are interpreted as the potential for movement of the recharge water; θ_e is the water storage capacity of soil, and K _S represents the ability of soil to transport water. α and β describe the characteristic curve of the unsaturated soil. The method was applied to evaluate a suitable site for artificial recharge in the Yun-Lin area. Grey correlation analysis was performed to obtain the grey correlation grade using the minimum arrival time as a reference sequence. An index is proposed herein to determine the recharge efficiency of 20 sampling sites. A contour mapping of index values at the 20 sampling sites identified three areas for artificial aquifer recharge in Yun-Lin. Area A in the upper plain is considered more appropriate for groundwater recharge than areas B and C in the coast.     

广西地震活动与我国主要地震区(带)地震活动的相关分析

应用灰色系统理论的关联分析方法研究了广西地震活动与我国主要地震区（带）地震活动的相关性．结果表明广西地震活动与东南沿海地震带地震活动的关联程度最大（ｒ＝０．８６）,根据这一结果,对广西与东南沿海地震带的地震活动的相关性作了进一步探讨,发现本世纪以来广西地震活动与东南沿海地震带的地震活动同步起伏,两区（带）之间发生中强地震的互相对应关系特别明显．     

应用灰色理论估计我国未来地震趋势

应用灰色理论ＧＭ（１,１）预测模型估计我国未来的地震趋势。为提高预测精度和反映“最新信息”,在组成原始数列时,对于Ｍ≥７．５级地震,由平静幕、活跃幕采用不同震级阈值联合组成;对于其它级别地震则尽可能采用当前活动期以来的数据。计算结果表明,１９９７￣２０００年期间我国大陆及邻区有发生Ｍ≥７．５级地震的可能,大陆西部可能发生７．０至７．５级以上地震;东部可能发生５．５至６．０级以上地震。同时,估计本活     

应用灰色聚类法预测长江三峡工程水库诱发地震的最大震级

根据世界上３０８座水库资料，用灰色聚类法研究了长江三峡工程水主加诱发地震的最大震级。结果表明，在坝址花岗体内诱发地震的震级不会高于４．０级，在庙河一香溪段，香溪－巴东主加段诱发地震的最大震级不会高于５．０级。     

应用TM数据估算沿岸海水表层时绿素浓度模型研究

本研究以大亚湾为实验区，以陆地卫星ＴＭ数据为信息源，结合表层海水叶绿素浓度实测资料建立模型。在对叶绿素光谱特征及遥感估算叶绿素浓度机理研究基础上，选取了ＴＭＩ—ＴＭ４波段的７５种波段组合为子因素，以叶绿素浓度为母因素，利用灰色系统理论，分析各波段组合与叶绿素浓度之间的关联度。将关联度最大的５种波段组合分别建模，得到５个估算表层海水叶绿素浓度的反演模型。误差分析表明，各模型的最大相对误差在１９％以下，平均绝对相对误差在１１．２％以下，相对标准误差在６．７％以下，模型精度较高。研究表明：（ＴＭ３×ＴＭ４）是估算沿岸海水表层叶绿素浓度的最佳波段组合，采用（ＴＭ３×ＴＭ４）与ＴＭ１、ＴＭ２或ｌｎ（ＴＭ十ＴＭ２）、Ｉｎ（ＴＭ１×ＴＭ２）之比值并不能改善估算精度。     

灰关联分析与地震序列类型的早期识别

用灰关联分析方法研究主震Ｍｓ≥６．０级地震序列类型的早期识别，主要对第一个强震后２天内地震序列资料进行分析研究，发现１３次大震（Ｍｓ≥７．０）后１天和２天震型在关联识别正确率均为０．７７（表１）３６次强震（６．０≤Ｍｓ〈７．０）的均为０．８３（表２，表３）。由此表明，灰关联分析方法是早期识别地震序列类型的一种比较有效的方法。     

地面沉降规律预测新模式

文章讨论了地面沉降当前一般研究及其防治措施;提出了若干尚待深入研究的有关问题。概括了地面沉降区的几种重要沉积模式和沉降机理。以世界上记录到的最大的美国加州中部谷地和规模较小的中国浙江宁波市地面沉降为例,重点对其动态规律作了概要讨论;以其监测数据为背景,采用Verhulst氏生物模型原理和灰色控制系统理论分别对两者进行了控制预测及预测控制。结果表明,在一定控制条件下,可以预测出二者沉降寿命分别为140年和90年;若严格予以控制,宁波市可望免于沉没海水面之下。     

GM(1,1)模型在沉降预报中的应用

本文提出采用灰色理论进行定量预报的方法。讨论GM(1，1)沉降预报模型的建立以及应用问题，并使用建立的预报模型对沉降控制点沉陷量进行预报。结果表明，用GM(1，1)模型进行预报具有理论的可行性和现实意义，说明灰色理论在地表沉降预报领域具有实用价值。     

Using Grey System Theory for Earthquake Forecast

By combining conventional grey correlation analysis,grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing,we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper,Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995,we forecast future earthquakes in Japan.We develop an earthquake forecast model.By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984,we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models.We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast.We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast.We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.     

负压地层形成机制及其对油气藏的影响

具异常压力场特征的盆地在我国比较普遍，但更多的是研究超压体系，对于异常低压体系的成因与机制在国内还没有很好的解释。盆地内的广泛沉积造成的巨厚沉积地层，并在随后的地层抬升过程中造成的严重剥蚀，导致剥蚀反弹现象，从而形成负压区。由于地层的温度或其他因素的影响，也会造成局部的负压现象。根据百色盆地的负压现象，从其成因着手,分析其形成过程有其对该地区油气藏的影响。负压造成流体的局部回流，形成低压封隔窗，促使油气二次运移，从而改造油气藏的分布，形成一些与负压有关的油气藏。