The primordial excitation and clearing of the asteroid belt—Revisited

We have performed new simulations of two different scenarios for the excitation and depletion of the primordial asteroid belt, assuming Jupiter and Saturn on initially circular orbits as predicted by the Nice Model of the evolution of the outer Solar System [Gomes, R., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Morbidelli, A., 2005. Nature 435, 466-469; Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461; Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., 2005. Nature 435, 462-465]. First, we study the effects of sweeping secular resonances driven by the depletion of the solar nebula. We find that these sweeping secular resonances are incapable of giving sufficient dynamical excitation to the asteroids for nebula depletion timescales consistent with estimates for solar-type stars, and in addition cannot cause significant mass depletion in the asteroid belt or produce the observed radial mixing of different asteroid taxonomic types. Second, we study the effects of planetary embryos embedded in the primordial asteroid belt. These embedded planetary embryos, combined with the action of jovian and saturnian resonances, can lead to dynamical excitation and radial mixing comparable to the current asteroid belt. The mass depletion driven by embedded planetary embryos alone, even in the case of an eccentric Jupiter and Saturn, is roughly 10-20× less than necessary to explain the current mass of the main belt, and thus a secondary depletion event, such as that which occurs naturally in the Nice Model, is required. We discuss the implications of our new simulations for the dynamical and collisional evolution of the main belt.     

形变地球对不同驱动力的响应

地球形变位移场和重力场的时空变化无论在基础理论研究,还是在地理空间信息建设中都具有重要的意义.地球在各种力学机制的作用下产生了形变,形变又导致地球引力位的变化,即形变附加位或Euler引力位增量.基于矢量球函数的基本理论,讨论了引潮力、负载力和地表应力对地球形变和引力位增量的影响,给出了均匀不可压缩地球模型的Euler引力位增量的具体表达式和Love数的理论关系.可为地球形变的理论研究提供参考和依据.     

地理信息系统中的网络模型

社会中的很多空间现象,如交通、信息交流和生活消费品的运输等都是线性的。在ARC INFO地理信息系统(GIS)中,这些线性现象经过组织和处理,能够建立成网络及其数据库。从而可用来解决资源的合理分配和流动、交通运输中的最佳路线选择等问题。     

地球-电离层空腔舒曼共振日变化特征分析

全球雷电活动在地球-电离层空腔中产生的极低频(ELF)信号干涉叠加,在一系列固定频率上产生舒曼共振(SR)。利用2012年5月以色列Mitzpe-Roman(MR)站ELF水平磁场资料,采用频谱变换、时间平均、分析了实测SR日变化信号的时域和频域特征。同时基于全球ELF传播模式,利用OTD/LIS雷电卫星资料模拟了5~30 Hz磁场功率谱日变化情况。结果表明:时域背景信号幅值的均值和偏差满足正态分布的期望和标准差;水平磁场前三阶SR谐振频率非常稳定,月平均下的谐振频率日变化相对8、14、20 Hz理论值的偏移量分别不超过0.3 Hz、0.55 Hz和0.6 Hz。东南亚和美洲地区雷电活动主要响应于南北磁场分量第一阶SR的07—09时和19—22时时段内。而东西磁场分量前三阶SR在12—15时时段内都对非洲地区雷电活动有指示作用。磁场功率谱日变化模拟结果与实测基本一致,表明利用单站正交磁天线的不同阶SR信号能够指示全球不同"热斑"区域的雷电活动。     

全球变暖减缓背景下欧亚秋冬温度变化特征和原因

采用气候序列变化趋势诊断和一元线性回归等分析法,研究和讨论了2000-2012年和1976-1999年两种年代际背景下全球陆地不同区域的年平均地表温度的变化特征。发现欧亚大陆中高纬度地区是对全球变暖减缓贡献最大的区域。且该地区在2000年以来秋季年代际增温,而冬季年代际降温。从同期大气环流的配置来看,在对流层低层,秋季西伯利亚高气压年代际减弱,而冬季西伯利亚高气压年代际增强。在对流层中高层,秋季从西欧至东北亚为"高-低-高"的高度场异常分布,纬向环流加强,经向环流减弱,而冬季极地与贝加尔湖地区的高度场呈偶极型分布,东亚大槽加深,经向环流加强。进一步研究发现,超前一个季节的喀拉海附近的海冰与欧亚中高纬度秋冬两季温度的年代际变率有着密切的联系。一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少影响秋季(冬季)中高纬度大气环流;另一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少,使得秋季(冬季)从北极至中高纬度大陆的对流层低层水汽含量增加(减少),大气逆辐射增强(减弱)导致秋季(冬季)增温(降温)。     

SD-WACCM模式对平流层化学组分的模拟研究

利用美国大气研究中心开发的全球气候模式,对2008年平流层的化学组分(HNO₃、HCl和O₃)进行了模拟研究,并结合了MLS卫星资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,模式可以较好地再现平流层的各化学组分的时空分布状况。并选取了8个区域,将模拟的2008—2009年O₃柱浓度与臭氧监测仪资料对比,结果表明,模式可以较好地再现全球O₃总量的季节变化情况。     

The PISA grammar decodes diverse human–environment approaches

Human–environment interactions are studied by several groups of scholars who have elaborated different approaches to describe, analyze, and explain these interactions, and eventually propose paths for management. The SETER project (Socio-Ecological Theories and Empirical Research) analyzed and compared how “flag-holders” of distinct school of thought in human–environment scholarship approached a number of empirical problems of environmental management. This paper presents the findings from this experiment by concentrating on how representatives of four schools of thought approached one of these case studies: the plant health crisis in greenhouse tomato production in south of France. Our analysis suggests that these approaches share a common conceptual vocabulary composed of four explanatory elements of change (Power, Incentives, System and Adaptation-PISA). We argue that what distinguishes these schools from one another is the syntax—the “rules” by which researchers in each of the sub-disciplines tend to organize the components of this shared conceptual vocabulary. In other words, the schools under scrutiny are differentiated not so much by what they speak of, but rather in what order, or hierarchy, do they tend to rank the importance and/or the sequence of each of these concepts in human–environment explanations. The results of our experiment support the view that communication and cooperation across the diverse human–environment traditions is possible and productive. At the same time, however, we argue that it is the distinctiveness of the claims yielded by these different schools of thought that augment our collective understanding of complex socio-ecological problems. Attempts to integrate these perspectives in one unitary approach would undermine the intellectual wealth necessary to meet the challenges of the Anthropocene.     

National indicators for observing ecosystem service change

Earth’s life-support systems are in rapid decline, yet we have few metrics or indicators with which to track these changes. The world’s governments are calling for biodiversity and ecosystem-service monitoring to guide and evaluate international conservation policy as well as to incorporate natural capital into their national accounts. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has been tasked with setting up this monitoring system. Here we explore the immediate feasibility of creating a global ecosystem-service monitoring platform under the GEO BON framework through combining data from national statistics, global vegetation models, and production function models. We found that nine ecosystem services could be annually reported at a national scale in the short term: carbon sequestration, water supply for hydropower, and non-fisheries marine products, crop, livestock, game meat, fisheries, mariculture, and timber production. Reported changes in service delivery over time reflected ecological shocks (e.g., droughts and disease outbreaks), highlighting the immediate utility of this monitoring system. Our work also identified three opportunities for creating a more comprehensive monitoring system. First, investing in input data for ecological process models (e.g., global land-use maps) would allow many more regulating services to be monitored. Currently, only 1 of 9 services that can be reported is a regulating service. Second, household surveys and censuses could help evaluate how nature affects people and provides non-monetary benefits. Finally, to forecast the sustainability of service delivery, research efforts could focus on calculating the total remaining biophysical stocks of provisioning services. Regardless, we demonstrated that a preliminary ecosystem-service monitoring platform is immediately feasible. With sufficient international investment, the platform could evolve further into a much-needed system to track changes in our planet's life-support systems.     

Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act

The public's willingness to engage in mitigation actions has not received as much attention as the level of belief in Global Warming (GW), especially on the international stage. Research in Western nations indicates that people systematically misunderstand GW and the actions required for mitigation. Important factors that influence judgments about mitigation actions include personal experiences, beliefs, knowledge, values, and worldviews. We present results of an international survey (25 samples from 24 countries) measuring general intentions to act and willingness to engage in specific actions. Our analysis reveals that endorsement of specific actions is (a) lower than general endorsement of mitigation, (b) accompanied by higher intra-individual variance, and (c) more strongly related to personal experiences with GW. This pattern can be attributed to the compatibility between the proximal construal of specific actions and the nature of the personal experience. Lastly we provide recommendations on how these findings can be used to encourage mitigation action.