顾及钟差变化率的GPS卫星钟差预报法

提出了一种基于钟差变化率拟合建模的卫星钟差预报方法。以附加周期项的线性或二次多项式作为基础模型对钟差变化率序列进行拟合,最优估计卫星钟差的趋势项系数,然后直接使用精密定轨得到的相应时刻的卫星钟差计算预报初始时刻的基准项系数,来建立卫星钟差的预报模型。以IGS发布的快速星历(IGR)的卫星钟差为试验数据,对GPS星座中各种型号的所有卫星钟差进行预报。结果表明:本文方法3、6、12与24h的预报精度分别可达0.43、0.58、0.90与1.47ns,相比于传统的基于钟差拟合的预报方法,精度分别提高69.3%、61.8%、50.5%与37.2%;与IGS发布的超快速星历(IGU)的预报钟差相比,钟差精度分别提高15.7%、23.7%、27.4%与34.4%。     

制备硅钢级氧化镁前驱体的原料水化研究

以青海盐湖水氯镁石为初级原料,采用喷雾热解法制备原料氧化镁,原料氧化镁通过水化制备硅钢级氧化镁前驱体氢氧化镁。原料氧化镁水化实验中对水化剂、水化温度、水化时间、液固比、搅拌速度及陈化时间对水化率、过滤速度和纯度的影响进行系统研究。采用均匀实验设计和DPS数据处理,(依次)通过建模分析、二次多项式模型回归建立数学模型,再通过各因素方差分析和总方差分析,确定了理论最优实验条件,再用理论最优条件作重复实验进行验证,最终确定了原料氧化镁的最佳水化条件。在水化温度60℃,水化时间105 min,液固比4,陈化时间4 h,水化剂1含量4.0%,水化剂2含量3.15%,洗水量4倍,搅拌速度120 r/min时,原料氧化镁的水化率达99.50%以上,得到的硅钢级氧化镁前驱体氢氧化镁纯度高、过滤性能良好。     

地面激光扫描球形标靶的球心误差研究

分析了球形标靶的特点,通过激光雷达方程描述了球心误差的产生过程和性质,研究统计了球心误差随激光入射方向的分布,采取多项式拟合和模拟球面的方法确定了球心位置和误差大小。实测数据验证了球心误差的系统性特点,并提出削弱球心误差的方法。     

利用 LiDAR 点云提取有地形约束的光滑海岸线

针对传统海岸线提取算法误差大、在地形突变区域形变大的缺点,提出了一种基于离散 LiDAR 点云提取有地形约束海岸线的方法.首先,通过离散点云构建约束三角网,减少内插规则格网的误差并且保证海岸线不穿越地形结构;其次,进行顾及地形结构的点云高程修正,在数据源上缓解海岸线的平滑问题;最后采取二次多项式法消除毛刺,利用动态阈值张力样条函数内插生成光滑海岸线.     

HY-2卫星精密轨道拟合与外推的两种方法比较

分别采用切比雪夫曲线和最小二乘曲线拟合HY-2(海洋二号)卫星精密轨道,并进一步解算速度场与预报轨道。结果表明:最小二乘曲线拟合结果明显优于切比雪夫曲线拟合结果,拟合轨道精度为1～2cm,拟合速度场精度为1～2cm/s,且可以进行轨道短期预报,预报轨道精度与拟合轨道精度相当。     

江淮地区极端降水特征及其变化趋势的研究

利用1961~2011年江淮地区5~9月无缺测的71站逐日降水资料,做基于POT(Peaks-Over-Threshold)的广义Pareto分布(GPD),研究江淮地区极端降水的分布特征及其变化趋势。结果表明:(1)皖赣交界处阈值最大,西北和东南部较小,且江淮大部分地区阈值的线性趋势系数为正,其中湖北东部和江西北部的站点,趋势达0.8 mm(10 a)-1以上,并通过了显著性水平0.01的MK(Mann-Kendall)检验。(2)江淮地区中东部多存在连续性极端降水,因此文中采用基于极值指数的自动分串技术获得近似独立的极值样本。(3)尺度参数大值区位于江淮南部,西北、东南以及淮河以北较小,且线性趋势系数在大部分地区均表现为正值,表明出现降水极大值的概率增加。(4)皖赣鄂交界处是极端降水发生概率大值区,而西北、东南及安徽中部地区较小,且极端降水在大部分地区有增加的趋势,特别是在大别山附近及河南东部,2年和20年重现水平的趋势分别达6 mm(10 a)-1和20 mm(10 a)-1以上。     

Note on the generalized thermal theory for gravity currents in the deceleration phase

The generalized thermal theory for gravitational convection, produced from instantaneous buoyancy sources on sloping boundaries, developed in Dai and Garcia (2010) is examined in this note. An assumption implicitly made therein, that detrained fluid carries no momentum, was inappropriate and the solution was not physical in special cases. The generalized thermal theory is now improved by considering the momentum carried away by detrained mixed fluid. An asymptotic velocity–distance relation for gravity currents further downslope in the deceleration phase is provided and agreement with reported experimental data is found.     

TIN模型在温度场研究中的应用

论述了TIN模型在表达区域温度分布状况中的应用,并着重介绍了应用中涉及到的各种算法。采用将连续的空间区域离散化,以点温度值代替微小面元温度的方法来表达区域温度状况。将温度特征点通过Delaunay三角剖分方法生成TIN三角网来对区域温度场进行建模,从而通过内插方法来获取区域各位置的温度值,并在生成的三角网基础上生成等温线和区域温度颜色渐变图来形象、直观反映区域温度状况。为了考察应用效果,作者在成都理工大学主校区进行实地检验,采集了15个温度特征点,通过编程来实现对采样点进行TIN三角网的构建、等温线和区域温度图的生成。实验的结果表明TIN模型在温度场中的应用效果良好。     

A simple generalization of wisdom's perturbative method

A simple generalization of Wisdom's perturbative method, as originally proposed by Wisdom (1985), is obtained. Any number of resonant cosines can be handled and the method can also accommodate more involved disturbing functions. Averaged trajectories are easily obtained by drawing level curves of the action. Here, the method is first tested for simple models of 3:1 and 2:1 resonant problems. Comparisons with numerical integration and surface-section curves show very good agreements.     

Complexity Theory of Natural Disasters; Boundaries of Self-Structured Domains

Disasters are often represented as complete breakdowns of quasi-stationary states in a landscape, but may also be part of the normal evolution of such states. A landscape is, in fact, an open, nonlinear, dynamic system where the tectonic uplift and the seismic activity represent the input, the mass wastage and the relief degradation the output. The apparent 'stability' is due to the fact that open, nonlinear dynamic systems tend to develop into relatively stable, self-organized ordered states 'at the edge of chaos', with a fractal attractor. Short of complete breakdown, such systems re-establish order in steps of various magnitudes which have a power-law distribution. Because of the fractal structure of the basic attractor, all subsets follow a power law which accounts for the distribution of the steps of recovery. As the domains of quasi-stationarity at the edge of chaos are represented by finite windows, the power-law does not cover all magnitudes. The stationarity windows are not only limited in range, but also in space and time. This should be taken into account in the assessment of hazards. Examples are given from seismology (earthquake frequency), volcanology (eruption frequency), river hydrology (flood frequency) and geomorphology (landslides).