基于灰色算子的尾矿坝浸润线混沌研究

对于尾矿坝浸润线时间序列，通过建立一个灰色算子，来弱化坝体高度、库内水位等因素所带来的确定性影响，突出混沌特性，形成新的时间序列，对该序列进行相空间重构后，求取关联维。德兴铜矿2#尾矿坝浸润线观测数据的分析结果表明，灰色算子能较好地处理混沌问题，浸润线时间序列存在着非整数维，是一个混沌系统：对于尾矿坝安全不能进行长期预测，而需要长期监测。     

基于正交多项式逼近法的岩土参数概率分布推断

针对岩上参数样本容量较大的情况,基于数值分析中的逼近原理,直接根据试验样本值,运用勒让德正交多项式来拟合岩土参数的概率密度函数,并用K-S检验法从理论上证明所求的密度函数的正确性和实用性。     

GPS 高程转换的总体最小二乘组合方法

在现有GPS高程转换的研究中,通常只采用单一的解算方法,然而,不同的计算方法由于适用的条件不同,在对同一组数据进行解算时,解算的精度也各有优劣。针对以上问题,文中提出GPS高程转换的总体最小二乘组合方法,对多种不同的高程转换方法进行组合,运用总体最小二乘法计算不同方法的权值,结合实际工程数据,验证该方法的可行性。计算结果表明,提出的方法能够有效地提高高程转换精度。     

Effect of sensor modelling methods on computation of 3-D coordinates from Cartosat-1 stereo data

The orbital and the rational polynomial coefficients (RPC) models are the two most commonly used models to compute a three-dimensional coordinates from an image stereo-pair. But it is still confusing that with the identical user provided inputs, which one of these two models provides more accurate digital elevation model (DEM), especially for mountainous terrain. This study aimed to find out the answer by evaluating the impact of used models on the vertical accuracy of DEM extracted from Cartosat-1 stereo data. We used high-accuracy photogrammetric DEM as the reference DEM. Apart from general variations in statistics, surprisingly in a few instances, both the DEMs provided contrasting results, thus proving the significance of this study. The computed root mean square errors and linear error at 90% (LE90) were lower in case of RPC DEM for various classes of slope, aspect and land cover, thus suggesting its better relative accuracy.     

多项式拟合技术在强噪声地震资料中的应用研究

获得高分辨率的地震信号是决定地震勘探在油气田等资源开发中能否发挥更大作用的关键,所以说地震信号的高分辨率是地震勘探所追求的重要目标,而提高数据信噪比才能真正提高地震资料的分辨率.本文通过对多项式拟合技术去噪的研究,以此提高地震数据信噪比.实际数据的处理结果表明,该方法能减少对振幅的畸变,同时可处理非水平的和弯曲的同相轴,可很好地提高地震资料的分辨率.     

利用水准数据的天津市地面沉降时空特征分析

地面不均匀沉降可能对城市的发展与人民的安全造成危害,天津市的地面沉降情况尤为严重。针对该问题,本文收集天津市2005—2012年、2016—2017年水准观测数据,以固定水准点位的沉降量、沉降速率、沉降加速率为状态向量,构建卡尔曼滤波模型,对天津市历年的水准观测数据进行滤波;根据滤波后的结果,本文利用多项式加权内插的方法,以距离、沉降速率、沉降加速率信息确定权值大小,对地面沉降情况进行内插;并以中误差作为精度评定参数,比较多种内插方法的精度。通过对内插结果的试验分析发现,2005—2017年天津市地面累计平均沉降量为394.477 5 mm,最大沉降量为1 143.5 mm;主要沉降区域为北辰、大港、塘沽等地区,且随着时间的增长,这些区域呈现漏斗式下沉。试验证明本文结合卡尔曼滤波与多项式加权内插的方式能够较好地反映地面沉降的时空特征分布情况并对未来一段时间的沉降情况进行预测,对天津市的城市发展及建设有一定的参考意义。     

一种基于三角函数多项式的GPS轨道标准化方法

本文提出了一种基于三角函数多项式的GPS轨道标准化方法。该方法考虑了卫星运动的坐标的周期性特点,所以能获得很好的内插和外推精度。文中的算例分析得出了一些有益的结论。     

Specifying a joint space- and time-lag using a bivariate Poisson distribution

Separate space- or time-lags have been considered regularly in data analyses; as space–time models are more recently being studied extensively in data analytic fashion, joint estimation of both lags has to be considered explicitly. This paper addresses this issue, taking into special consideration parametric parsimony together with specification richness; use of the bivariate Poisson frequency distribution is advocated and applied to an empirical case. The relation of this approach to random effects specifications is investigated. Data for Belgian regional products constitute the empirical case study.

精密单点定位中三种GPS卫星钟差预报模型的精度分析

分析了二次多项式、线性和灰色系统三种预报模型的原理和特点,采用了IGS精密星历和超快星历数据,选取了五颗钟差变化比较典型的卫星,实现了为期一天的卫星钟差预报。     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.