Transformation of Residuals to Avoid Artifacts in Geostatistical Modelling with a Trend

Trend modelling is an important part of natural resource characterization. A common approach to account for a variable with a trend is to decompose it into a relatively smoothly varying trend and a more variable residual component. Then, the residuals are stochastically modelled independent of the trend. This decomposition can result in values outside the plausible range of variability, such as grades below zero or ratios that exceed 1.0. We transform the residuals conditional to the trend component to explicitly remove these complex features prior to geostatistical modelling. Back transformation of the modelled residual values allows the complex relations to be reproduced. A petroleum-related application shows the robustness of the proposed transformation. Furthermore, a mining application shows that when this conditional transformation is applied to the original variable, instead of the residual, simulated values are assured to be nonnegative.     

Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.     

Tectonic and hydrodynamic control of landslides in the northern area of the Central Rif, Morocco

The northern edge of the Central Rif (Morocco) is subject to numerous landslides where mechanisms do not correspond to the classical models used by geomechanics specialists. It is necessary to adopt a multidisciplinary approach that combines geomorphology, geology, hydrogeology, and geotechnics in order to understand how such slope failures are generated, especially in a region with a heterogeneous structure characterised by significant lithological differences, severe fracturing, and thrust sheets where tectonic contacts play a major role in groundwater circulation. This report shows that these failures are essentially controlled by the tectonic contact separating the Tisirene and Chouamat thrust sheets and by subsurface hydrodynamic conditions. A model of spatial and temporal variations in the factor of safety is proposed.     

东吴小筑园林植物应用评价

园林植物配置是园林植物应用的重要内容，对充分发挥园林功能和观赏特性具有重要作用。通过对东吴小筑入口、前庭小院、主景区、山林区、园路、出口等6个功能区园林植物水平配置的现状调查，分析了本景区园林植物的物种多样性、水平结构、垂直结构、色彩变化等特征。结果表明：东吴小筑园林景观营造中．植物配置显示出较高水准。在树种选择、树丛组合、层次搭配、空间组织、色彩表现、季相变化等方面的设计布局十分精细，对今后园林设计及园林绿化水平的提高具有较好的指导作用。     

建筑物沉降规律的综合时序分析

建筑物的沉降监测数据序列具有趋势变化和随机变化的特点，本文针对两种变化项的特点分别建立相应的数学模型，再将其组合起来建立综合数学模型，从总体上把握沉降数据序列的变化规律。实例计算分析表明，此方法具有较高的拟合精度和预测能力，具有一定的应用参考价值。     

Study on simulating strong ground motion by fractal stochastic method

The time history of strong ground motion can be synthesized by empirical Green's function (EGF) method.Firstly a large seismic event is discretized into a series of subevents; secondly recordings of earthquakes with proper size and spatial distribution are chosen as time history (EGF) of those subevents; finally the EGFs are summated to get the time history of ground motion caused by the large event.     

Ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano (Greece) for the period 1995–2002: Results from DInSAR and DGPS observations

Differential GPS (DGPS) and Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) analyses were applied to the Kos-Yali-Nisyros Volcanic Field (SE Hellenic Volcanic Arc) to quantify the ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano. After intense seismic activity in 1996, a GPS network was installed in June 1997 and re-occupied annually up to 2002. A general uplift ranging from 14 to 140 mm was determined at all stations of the network. The corresponding horizontal displacements ranged from 13 to 53 mm. The displacement vectors indicate that the island is undergoing extension towards the East, West and South. A two-source “Mogi” model combined with assumed motion along the Mandraki Fault was constructed to fit the observed deformation. The best-fit model assumes sources at a depth of 5500 m NW of the centre of the island and at 6500 m offshore ESE of Yali Island. DInSAR analysis using four pairs of images taken between May 1995 and September 2000 suggests that deformation was occurring during 1995 before the start of the seismic crisis. An amplitude of at least 56 mm along the slant range appeared for the period 1996 through 1999. This deformation is consistent with the two-source model invoked in DGPS modelling. Surface evidence of ground deformation is expressed in the contemporaneous reactivation of the Mandraki Fault. In addition, a 600 m long N-S trending irregular rupture in the caldera floor was formed between 2001 and 2002. This rupture is interpreted as the release of surface stress in the consolidated epiclastic and hydrothermal sediments of the caldera floor.     

Development of an integrated conceptual model for the rational management of the transboundary Nestos River, Greece

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the geologic, hydrologic and hydrogeologic characteristics of Nestos River basin, which is formed within the Greek mountainous part of the river. The quantitative analysis was mainly based on the data of the river flow in different gauging points across the rivercourse as well as on the data of groundwater discharge from karst springs of the mountainous area while important conclusions were made regarding the hydraulic connection between the surface waters of the river and the groundwater of the karst aquifers of the basin. The qualitative analysis has shown that the quality of both surface waters and groundwaters of the investigated basin is high, whereas, no sources of contamination were indicated during this research. The possible effects of the two large dams of Platanovrisi and Thesavros are also analysed as they strongly affect the quantitative and qualitative regime of the river delta.