Numerical modelling of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia during the Holocene

The occurrence of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia and its dependence on past and presently ongoing climatic variations was investigated with one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical models by solving the transient heat conduction equation with latent heat effects included. The study area is characterized by discontinuous permafrost occurrences such as palsa mires and local mountain permafrost. The ground temperature changes during the Holocene were constructed using climatic proxy data. This variation was used as a forcing function at the ground surface in the calculations. Several versions of the present ground temperature were applied, resulting in different subsurface freezing–thawing conditions in the past depending on the assumed porosity and geothermal conditions.Our results suggest that in high altitude areas with a cold climate (present mean annual ground temperature between 0°C and −3°C), there may have been considerable variations in permafrost thickness (ranging from 0 to 150 m), as well as periods of no permafrost at all. The higher is the porosity of bedrock filled with ice, the stronger is the retarding effect of permafrost against climatic variations.Two-dimensional models including topographic effects with altitude-dependent ground temperatures and slope orientation and inclination dependent solar radiation were applied to a case of mountain permafrost in Ylläs, western Finnish Lapland, where bedrock permafrost is known to occur in boreholes to a depth of about 60 m. Modelling suggests complicated changes in permafrost thickness with time as well as contrasting situations on southern and northern slopes of the mountain.Extrapolating the climatic warming of the last 200 years to the end of the next century when the anticipated increase in the annual average air temperature is expected to be about 2 K indicates that the permafrost occurrences in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia would be thawing rapidly in low-porosity formations. However, already a porosity of 5% filled with ice would retard the thawing considerably.     

基于GIS的印度洋大眼金枪鱼延绳钓钓获率与水温关系的研究

采用GIS定性分析和数值分析的方法,研究了印度洋大眼金枪鱼延绳钓钓获率与水温的 关系。结果表明,大眼金枪鱼延绳钓高钓获率的出现与印度洋加权水温大面分布存在明显的相互 关系,大眼金枪鱼的渔获适温在14～17℃间。建议测量200m水深处的水温作为海上生产时的参 考。     

复杂模型重力位场快速正反演方法及应用

提要 本文详细讨论了一种三维重力位场快速正反演方法。作者在前人工作的基础上,对算法作了行之有效的改进,通过对反演中的不稳定因素进行各种理论模型试算,得出保证迭代反演稳定收敛的准则,编制出可在微型机IBM—PC上运行的人机对话式自动正反演程序。本文还对各种不均质模型进行了模似计算并将该方法应用于某含油气沉积盆地的双层界面构造研究,揭示出了储油有利地段。     

Design of stable drainage networks in upland forestry plantations

Erosion of man-made, forestry drainage channels occurs when the plough cuts through the surface peat layer into the underlying erodible mineral soil. A procedure is developed, based on hydraulic considerations, which will allow the drainage engineer to design stable drainage networks in upland forestry plantations. An example design chart is given for an erodible sandy loam type soil.     

Dissipative-acoustic instability in accretion disks at a nonlinear stage

Nonstationary hydrodynamic models of a viscous accretion disk around a central compact object were constructed. Two different numerical methods (TVD and SPH) are used to study the dynamics of dissipatively unstable acoustic perturbations at the nonlinear stage in terms of the standard α-disk model. The standard disk accretion in the Shakura-Sunyaev model is unstable against acoustic waves for various parameters of the system. If the α parameter, which specifies the level of turbulent viscosity, exceeds α?0.03, then a complex nonstationary system of small-scale weak shock waves is formed. The growth rate of the perturbations is higher in the central disk region. For α?0.2, the relative shock amplitude can exceed 50% of the equilibrium disk parameters. The reflection of waves from the disk boundaries and their nonlinear interaction are important factors that can produce unsteady accretion. The luminosity of such a disk undergoes quasi-periodic oscillations at a level of several percent (?5%) of the equilibrium level.     

ANALYSIS ON THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION VARIATION CHARACTERISTIC OF URBAN HEAT ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND ITS MECHANISM——A Case Study of Hangzhou City

Urban heat environmental quality(UHEQ) is affected by the interacting of weather condition and underlying surface framework of urban area .In the last two decades,many researchers from domestic and overseas have studied many problems at the aspect of urban heat environment such as urban heat islands ,urban air temperature and their rela-tion with urban land cover,city population,air pollution etc,In the recent years,Hangzhou,acting as a center city of Zhejiang Province in China,its urbanization quantum and quantity have both changed greatly,in particular ,representing as business affairs building,resident real property and all kins of specialty market having arisen in built-up zone,Based on Landsat TM images data in 1991 and 1999,urban underlying surface temperature value and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated using image interpreting and supervised classification technique by remote sensing software ERDAS image 8.4,The relation model between urban underlying surface temperature (UUST )and urban air temperature was setup according to the certain correlation patten .Reference to the relational standard of assessing human comfort and other meteorology data of Hangzhou City in summer,the spatial distribution characteristic and the spatial varia-tion degree of human comfort of heat environmental quality are estimated and mapped on a middle scale,that is ,in six districts of Hangzhou City .Then the paper reveals the main characteristic of spatial variation from 1991 to 1999.Lastly,the change mechanism is analyzed and discussed from the viewpoint of city planning,construction and environmental protec-tion.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

Delineation of groundwater protection zones by the backward particle tracking method: theoretical background and GIS-based stochastic analysis

The backward particle tracking method, an effective and powerful tool that can be used to delineate groundwater protection zones, is presented. The theoretical background and insights on the applicability of this method are provided. Moreover, the present work enriches the backward particle tracking method with an uncertainty analysis concerning the porosity values, applying a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, coupled with the use of geographical information systems (GIS). As an application example, a wellfield in the Komotini area, Greece, is investigated. The present study may serve as a potential guideline for wellfield delineation, particularly in areas like Greece where lack of data related to the hydrogeological system is often a problem.