关于复合型极端事件的新认识和启示

近年来,极端天气气候事件频繁发生,且常常表现为多种事件交织形成的复合型极端事件。为了更好地认识复合型极端事件,IPCC AR6基于现有的新证据评估了复合型极端事件的最新研究成果,并取得一些新认识：扩展了有关复合型极端事件的定义,重点围绕高温干旱复合型极端事件、复合洪水和野火,评估了复合型极端事件的变化特征,探讨了复合型极端事件多因子之间的依赖性,对人类活动的影响进行了归因分析并给出了未来可能的变化。这些评估结果丰富了对复合型极端事件的基本认识。但根据现有的评估可以发现,目前在复合型极端事件发生发展机理认识方面还存在不足;同时,未来仍需进一步完善跨学科跨部门跨区域研究,加强对复合型极端事件形成机理、预估及其对生态系统,经济社会影响风险的评估,提高对区域气候变化的适应能力。     

基于“葵花8号”气象卫星的陇东南地区强对流识别跟踪技术研究

利用常规观测资料、区域自动站资料和“葵花8号”气象卫星资料,对2016年4—9月甘肃省陇东南地区出现的43次强对流天气过程进行分析,确立了强对流云团识别指标、追踪方法及预报指标,并对2018年部分个例进行效果检验。结果表明：（1）利用卫星B13通道（10.4μm）亮温值TBB≤238 K或B08通道（6.2μm）与B13通道亮温差△TBB<0 K双阈值作为强对流云团识别指标,可以准确识别出陇东南地区的强对流天气云团;（2）利用“逆向搜索法”、“面积重叠法”及对云团重心的计算,可以对强对流云团进行准确定位、追踪及移动路径外推预报;（3）建立的强对流天气落区判别指标对该地区短时强降水及冰雹落区具有一定的预报能力。     

海岸水边线提取方法在GF-2卫星影像中的适应性研究

准确提取海岸水边线是海岸线变迁研究中必不可少的基本工作。本文以海南省陵水黎族自治县2016年的GF-2影像为数据源,在大气校正和正射校正等预处理的基础上,结合数学形态学处理等方法,采用NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index)阈值法、ISOADTA (Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique Algorithm)、SVM (Support Vector Machine)和面向对象法（Object-Oriented Classification,OOC）等4种不同方法来对海岸水边线进行提取,并对其提取结果进行定性和定量评估,进而分析比较了这4种方法在提取人工海岸、砂质海岸和基岩海岸等3种不同海岸类型的水边线时的提取效果和提取精度。结果表明,SVM方法在3种海岸水边线上的总体提取效果最好,总体提取精度最高。     

不同地表覆盖下SPOT-7影像大气校正方法研究

针对不同的地物覆盖类型,分析和评价了适用于SPOT-7卫星数据的大气校正方法,为其遥感定量研究和应用提供思路和参考.在河南省嵩山地区进行了同步观测实验,获取了SPOT-7卫星影像并进行大气校正处理,地面同步测量了大气光学特性和典型地物样区光谱,计算了地物样区在影像上的反射率和植被指数,分析了不同地物覆盖类型下大气校正模...     

Transports of Nordic Seas water masses and excess SF6 through Fram Strait to the Arctic Ocean

To determine the exchanges between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait is one of the most important aspects, and one of the major challenges, in describing the circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean Sea. Especially the northward transport of Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW) from the Nordic Seas into the Arctic Ocean is little known. In the two-ship study of the circulation in the Nordic Seas, Arctic Ocean - 2002, the Swedish icebreaker Oden operated in the ice-covered areas in and north of Fram Strait and in the western margins of Greenland and Iceland seas, while RV Knorr of Woods Hole worked in the ice free part of the Nordic Seas. Here two hydrographic sections obtained by Oden, augmented by tracer and velocity measurements with Lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (LADCP), are examined. The first section, reaching from the Svalbard shelf across the Yermak Plateau, covers the region north of Svalbard where inflow to the Arctic Ocean takes place. The second, western, section spans the outflow area extending from west of the Yermak Plateau onto the Greenland shelf. Geostrophic and LADCP derived velocities are both used to estimate the exchanges of water masses between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. The geostrophic computations indicate a total flow of 3.6 Sv entering the Arctic on the eastern section. The southward flow on the western section is found to be 5.1 Sv. The total inflow to the Arctic Ocean obtained using the LADCP derived velocities is much larger, 13.6 Sv, and the southward transport on the western section is 13.7 Sv, equal to the northward transport north of Svalbard. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) originating from a tracer release experiment in the Greenland Sea in 1996 has become a marker for the circulation of AIW. From the geostrophic velocities we obtain 0.5 Sv and from the LADCP derived velocities 2.8 Sv of AIW flowing into the Arctic. The annual transport of SF₆ into the Arctic Ocean derived from geostrophy is 5 kg/year, which is of the same magnitude as the observed total annual transport into the North Atlantic, while the LADCP measurements (19 kg/year) imply that it is substantially larger. Little SF₆ was found on the western section, confirming the dominance of the Arctic Ocean water masses and indicating that the major recirculation in Fram Strait takes place farther to the south.     

利用南极走航观测评估卫星遥感海表面温度

利用1989-2005年间南极走航观测的海表面温度,对目前3个主要的卫星反演的SST产品AVHRR(Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer),TMI(TRMM Microwave Imager)和AMSR-E(Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System)进行了较为系统的评估,并着重检验了它们在南大洋的准确性.结果表明,AVHRR SST比观测数据偏冷,白天的偏差为-0.12℃,夜晚的偏差为-0.04℃,而且南大洋的冷偏差更为显著.TMI SST比观测数据明显偏暖,白天的偏差为0.48℃,夜晚的偏差为0.57℃,其温差ΔT受37GHz风速影响,在强风速(>6m/s)下这种影响仍然存在.AMSR-ESST比观测数据偏暖,白天的偏差为0.34℃,夜晚的偏差为0.27℃,而且南大洋的暖偏差相对较大.AMSR-E SST温差受水汽影响,并在南大洋随着水汽的增加而增加.通过进一步比较微波(AMSR-E和TMI)和红外(AVHRR)遥感的SST在2004年北半球冬季(即南半球夏季)的差别,发现微波遥感在热带(15°S-15°N)和南大洋区域(45°S以南)比红外遥感偏暖,而且在南大洋区域的偏差相对较大,相反在北半球中纬度区域(15°~40°N)偏冷.AMSR-E与AVHRR SST的温差,从白天到夜晚有减小的趋势,而TMI与AVHRR SST的温差无明显的变化.     

Influence analysis of gaseous absorption on “HY-1A” CZI data processing Simulation and correction for Rayleigh scattering

Besides ozone, oxygen and water vapour should be considered for their absorptive effects on ＂HY--1A＂ CZI data processing. First ,gaseous transmittances under various conditions are computed and analyzed for the band settings of this sensor. Second, transmittances under six standard atmospheres are approximated as functions of zenith angle, the water vapour transmittance is approximated as a function of water vapour content and zenith angle, and the ozone transmittance is approximated as a function of ozone content and zenith angle. Finally, taking Rayleigh scattering as an example, the influence of ignoring gaseous absorption when calculating TOA reflectance is analyzed, and the effect of applying the presented transmittance approximations to gaseous absorption correction for Rayleigh scattering in ＂HY--1A＂ CZI data processing is evaluated.     

Variations of Kuroshio geostrophic transport south of Japan estimated from long-term IES observations

Two inverted echo sounders were maintained on coastal and offshore sides of the Kuroshio south of Japan from October 1993 to July 2004. Applying the gravest empirical mode method, we obtained a time series of geostrophic transport. Estimated transports generally agree well with geostrophic transports estimated from hydrography. Their agreement with the hydrographic transports is better than that of transports estimated from satellite altimetry data. The geostrophic transport is expressed as the surface transport per unit depth multiplied by the equivalent depth. The geostrophic transport varies mostly with the surface transport and fractionally with the equivalent depth. Seasonal variation of the geostrophic transport has a minimum in March and a maximum in September, with a range of about one fifth of the total transport.     

天然气水合物动力学研究进展

依据第六届天然气水合物国际会议(ICGH6)的资料,综述了天然气水合物动力学研究领域的最新进展。重点介绍了新技术的应用、动力学机理的实验研究、计算机分子动力学模拟以及动力学抑制与促进研究等几个方面取得的最新成果,并探讨了水合物动力学领域的主要问题及发展前景。     

验后平差方法在Geosat/GM卫星测高数据处理中的应用

为了消除多代卫星测高数据之间的不协调性,利用两步处理法对Geosat/GM正常点海面高数据进行自交叉点平差及与T/P卫星测高数据联合平差,发现误差模型的系数计算出现异常,通过分析误差模型及正常点海面高数据的分布特征,找出了出现异常的原因,对计算方法进行改进后,大大提高了计算结果的稳定性和可靠性。