基于多种模型的云南元江哈尼云海景观预报研究

为推动区域旅游事业发展,满足旅游气象服务需求,研究针对云南元江哈尼云海景观进行了立体气象观测和业务预报实验。本研究基于云南元江云海气候站2016—2019年观测数据,利用经验预报法、Logistics回归、支持向量机、决策树分析等方法,进行了云海景观出现与否的二分类预报实验。结果表明：各预报方法间训练样本总体准确率在74.3%—82.2%之间差别不大,但传统经验预报基于云海机理研究背景,预报指标物理意义明确,随着预报经验的积累经验预报2019年TS评分为54.8,优于2016—2018年TS评分46.0,也优于仅使用局地数据的统计学习算法的预报评分,且其他几种统计学习预报方法的检验样本TS评分均不如训练样本评分高。云海景观出现需要水汽条件和大气静稳条件的配合,局地云海气象观测站建设收集的立体气候数据有利于预报人员改进预报指标体系,提高预报准确率,有利于提升区域旅游气象服务能力发展。     

An analysis on location factors affecting the spatial distribution of Shanghai land values

With a technique of GIS(Geographical Information System) and a method of multiple linear regression analysis, the spatial distribution of Shanghai land values and its relationship with some location factors are examined in this paper. The database of land values consists of 166 land parcels leased during 1993–1994. The land value map shows that the spatial distribution of Shanghai land values has some distinct spatial features. Firstly, the highest land value areas are located along Nanjing Road, Huaihai Road and the Bund. Secondly, there is no conspicuous peak land value intersection within the CBD(Central Business District). Finally, The land values of Pudong are much lower than those of Puxi. The regression model between Shanghai land values and the selected location factors shows that Nanjing Road is the first important location factor affecting the spatial distribution of the land values, the city center is the second one and Huaihai Road is the third one. The Bund, the regional shopping centers and the transportation nodes have little influence on the land values. This relationship between Shanghai land values and the location factors is determined by the distribution of commercial activities, the characteristics of the CBD and the spatial form of the city.     

瑞雷面波在灌浆加固路基检测中的应用

瑞雷面波在灌浆加固路基检测中 ,既可利用面波波速等值线断面发现可能存在的软弱部位 ,在三维空间上宏观评价灌浆加固效果 ,还可结合少量动力触探 ,间接计算路基承载力。文章从工程实例出发 ,着重探讨了实际工程应用中路基加固效果的宏观评价及触探击数与波速回归分析中的抽样问题     

电子计算机在饲料研究上的应用——饲料蛋白质消化率的逐步回归分析

本文使用电子计算机通过对大量数据的逐步回归分析,研完了飼料中水分、粗纤維、粗脂肪、无氮浸出物及蛋白质含量对蛋白质消化率的影响。结果表明,对其影响的显著程度依次为蛋白质、粗纤維、水分及脂肪含量,而无氮浸出物的影响不显著。     

逐步回归曲线拟合模型及其在气象要素预报中的应用

本文将逐步回归和曲线拟合结合起来,设计了一种逐步回归曲线拟合模型,实例分析表明,该模型与逐步回归相比,其拟合误差和预报误差均较小,具有较高的使用价值。     

THE CONSTRUCTION OF SIMULTANEOUS OPTIMAL EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS FOR SEVERAL POLYNOMIALS IN THE CALIBRATION OF ANALYTICAL METHODS

In this paper a criterion is described for the construction of experimental designs for the evaluation ofcalibration models in analytical chemistry.The proposed criterion seeks a compromise between theD-optimal designs for estimating the parameters of different polynomial models.A computer algorithmis presented for a sequential construction of experimental designs using the optimality criterion.Theperformance of the optimality criterion and the computer algorithm is elaborated for the problem ofdiscrimination between a first-to a third-degree polynomial for the calibration of analytical methods.Anexperimental design consisting of replicate measurements at five distinct levels equally spaced over thecalibration range proved a good solution.     

THE USE OF ADDED VARIABLE PLOTS IN REGRESSION MODELLING WITH SPATIAL DATA*

A simple graphical method for developing regression models for spatially referenced data is presented. The method supplements formal testing procedures and provides the analyst with useful information helpful in developing an understanding of data properties without the need for complex data manipulations. The paper includes a worked example and suggests directions for further work in this area.     

半参数回归与平差模型

从数据处理几种回归模型出发，对参数、非参数、半参数回归模型进行了讨论，指出了它们的适用前提条件。论证了半参数回归模型的最小二乘核估计与附加系统参数平差、补偿最小二乘准则与最小二乘配置之间的联系与区别，阐述了半参数回归估计在测量平差中的应用前景。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Women, Work, and Ideology in the Third World . Haleh Afshar, ed. The Birth of the National Park Service. The Founding Years 1913–33 . Horace M. Albright Theatres of Accumulation: Studies in Asian and Latin American Urbanization . Warwick Armstrong and T.G. McGee. New Tools for Social Scientists, Advances and Applications in Research Methods . William D. Berry and Michael S. Lewis -Beck , eds . Uncertain Dimensions: Western Overseas Empires in the Twentieth Century . Raymond F. Betts. Geography of Sugar Cane . Helmut Blume. The Mines of Neptune: Minerals and Metals from the Sea . Elisabeth Mann Borgese. Geographical Dimensions of Energy . F.J. Calzonetti and B.D. Solomon, eds. Statistical Methods for Geographers . W. A. V. Clark and P. L. Hosking. In The Wake of Columbus, Islands and Controversy . John DeVorsey, Jr., and John Parker, eds. Housing, States and Localities . Peter Dickens, Simon Duncan, Mark Goodwin and Fred Gray. Physician Location and Specialty Choice . Richard L. Ernst and Donald E. Yett. Practical Ecology for Geography and Biology: Survey, Mapping, and Data Analysis . D.D. Gilbertson , M. Kent and F.B. Pyatt Large Scale Water Transfers: Emerging Environmental and Social Experiences . Genady N. Golubev and Asit K. Biswas, eds. The Nature of the Environment . Andrew Goudie. Planning for Population Change . W.T.S. Gould and R. Lawton. The Niger and its Neighbors: Environmental History and Hydrobiology. Human Use and Health Hazards of the Major West African Rivers . A.T. Grove, ed. Remote Sensing of Ice and Snow . Dorothy K. Hall and Jaroslav Martinec. Atlas of Antebellum Southern Agriculture . Sam Bowers Hilliard. Galilee Divided; The Israel-Lebanon Frontier, 1916-1984 . Frederic C. Hor . Plains Country Towns . John C. Hudson. Agricultural Geography: A Social and Economic Analysis . Brian W. Ilbery. Industry in the 1980s: Structural Change and Interdependence . U.N. Industrial Development Organization. Crabgrass Frontier: The Suburbanization of the United States . Kenneth T. Jackson. The Industrial Geography of Italy . Russell King. Studies in Linguistic Geography: The Dialects of English in Britain and Ireland . John M. Kirk, Stewart Sanderson, J.D.A. Widdowson, eds. Tourism: A Community Approach . Peter E. Murphy. Cities and Services: The Geography of Collective Consumption . Steven Pinch. An Historical Geography of Europe 1800–1914 . Norman J. G. Pounds. An Introduction to Human Ecology Research on Agricultural Systems in Southeast Asia . A. Terry Rambo and Percy E. Sajise, eds. Discovering Past Landscapes . Michael Reed, ed. Managing the Ocean: Resources, Research, Law . Jacques G. Richardson, ed. Carta fitosociologica de la transecta botanica de la Patagonia Austral . F.A. Roig , Juan Anchorema , Orlando Dollenz , A.M. Faggi and Eduardo Mandez Intermetropolitan Migration in Canada: Changing Determinants over Three Decades . R. Paul Shaw. Chinese Cities—The Growth of the Metropolis since 1949 . Victor F. Sit, ed. Urbanization in the World-Economy . Michael Timberlake, ed. The Al Business: Commercial Uses of Artificial Intelligence . Patrick H. Winston and Karen A. Prendergast, eds.     

Identification of trends in annual maximum sea levels using robust locally weighted regression

Estimates of the frequency of occurrence of extreme high sea levels may be obtained from a sample of annual maxima. However, the presence of a secular trend may lead to serious doubts about the validity of analysing these annual maxima as if they were a random sample from an extreme-value distribution. Robust locally weighted regression, employing a simple model, is used to illustrate how any secular trend may be estimated. The annual maxima may then be adjusted for this trend and more reliable estimates of the frequencies of occurrence of extreme sea levels determined.