CHARACTERIZATION OF FOODS BY INEXACT RULES:THE SEXIA EXPERT SYSTEM

SEXIA is an expert system that uses a new methodological approach to identify foods,particularly oliveoils according to varieties,olive zones and denominations of origin.The methodological approachprovides identification tools,associating a confidence degree or a belief interval to the final hypotheses.The certainty factor and the Dempster-Shaffer theory,with some modifications,have been implementedin SEXIA.The computer can work with 50 chemical parameters whose data have previously beenacquired by the food analyst via a dialogue in the Spanish language.The system has been verified with144 olive oil samples.In this paper some results obtained for distinguishing the Arbequina variety fromother varieties using SEXIA and the BMDP stepwise discriminant analysis program are presented.Finally,promising directions for future research are suggested.     

FUZZY MULTIVARIATE RULE-BUILDING EXPERT SYSTEMS:MINIMAL NEURAL NETWORKS

A fuzzy multivariate rule-building expert system (FuRES) has been devised which also functions as aminimal neural network.This system builds rules from training sets of data that use featuretransformation in their antecedents.The rules are constructed using the ID3 algorithm with a fuzzyexpression of classification entropy.The rules are optimal with respect to fuzziness and can accommodateoverlapped and underlapped clusters of data.The FuRES algorithm combines the benefits obtained fromsimulated annealing and gradient optimization,which provide robustness and efficiency respectively.FARES classification trees support OR logic in their inference.The system automatically generatesmeaningful and consistent certainty factors during rule construction.Unlike other neural networks,FuRES uses local processing which furnishes qualitative information in the rule structure of itsclassification trees and variable loadings of the weight vectors.     

中分辨率遥感图像土地利用与覆被分类的方法及精度评价

利用TM、SPOT及CBERS-1等中分辨率卫星图像,对土地覆被的专家系统分类方法、居民地的决策树提取方法以及水体的迭代混合提取方法进行了试验,其总体精度达到87.89%,与常用的监督分类方法相比精度可提高7.86%.专家系统分类的结果叠合居民地、水体等易于混分专题信息,可以形成精度较高的土地利用与覆被分类结果。     

Unleashing expert judgment in assessment

Assessment evaluates accumulated knowledge and its limits. It informs and ideally empowers decisions and actions on complex, contested issues with persistent uncertainties. Applying rigorous expert judgment is an important dimension of assessment. Here we evaluate advances and challenges in approaches to expert judgment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We find that revised guidance for author teams improved the development of balanced judgments on scientific evidence across disciplines. In particular, expert judgments underpinning conclusions are more extensively, transparently, and consistently communicated: degree-of-certainty terms are more abundant in AR5 policymaker summaries; wider ranges of possible outcomes are presented with greater inclusion of lower-certainty, decision-relevant findings; and expert judgments supporting conclusions are more comparable across working groups. But challenges in developing and communicating assessment conclusions persist, especially for findings with substantial uncertainties and for subjective aspects of judgments. Based on our evaluations and AR5 lessons learned, we propose a simpler, more rigorous framework for developing and communicating expert judgments in environmental assessment. We also describe practices for reducing expert-judgment biases, for advancing integration of evidence and expert judgment, and for addressing subjective dimensions of expert opinion directly and proactively.     

黄海大海洋生态系监测和保护数据资料库

本文提出了黄海大海洋生态监测和保护数据和资料库管理系统建设的一种设想计划,着重叙述了建立黄海大海洋生态系数据资料管理系统的框架、功能及其应用。     

专家证据权重法在矿产评价中的应用——以黑龙江省西北部金矿为例

由于黑龙江省西北部地区地质勘探程度低,而且研究区已知矿床（点）数目少,利用统计方法的证据权重法不能应用于该地区。为此,将黑龙江省西北部地区的基础地质、区域成矿规律、金矿床成矿特征等方面取得的认识建立了一个“专家知识库”,并与“证据权重法”结合起来,建立一个基于专家证据权重法的矿产资源定量评价系统。利用该系统对黑龙江省西北部金矿进行预测并取得了很好的效果,为在黑龙江省西北部进一步找矿奠定了基础。     

专家聚类法在青岛市城市地质环境脆弱性评价中的应用

地质环境是人类生活与活动的客观物质环境,影响城市地质环境的因素包括自然地质环境要素和人类工程经济活动2个方面,采用专家聚类法可以对城市进行地质环境脆弱性评价,用以表征城市地质环境特征和质量,在此基础上可进行城市建设发展适宜性分析,为采取有效的地质环境保护措施提供依据。     

基于过程判别的雨雾凇导线覆冰气象模式

利用2011年1月—2013年3月在贵州开展导线覆冰自动观测试验获取的观测资料,分析了覆冰过程演变及其气象条件变化特征,提出一次完整的导线覆冰过程包括覆冰开始、增长、维持、减弱、消融5个阶段,并得到覆冰过程的气象条件判别指标;基于导线覆冰理论模型的改进并结合气象条件判别,建立了基于过程判别的雨雾凇导线覆冰气象模式,应用该模式对观测获取的多个导线覆冰过程进行数值模拟检验。结果表明:模式能够模拟自然环境下覆冰的增长,并能够正确模拟出覆冰的减弱、消融,模拟过程覆冰质量变化的最大相对误差小于20%。该模式具有较完整的理论基础和计算方案,主要以常规气象观测要素为输入,能够计算输出覆冰全过程逐小时覆冰质量、覆冰厚度及覆冰密度变化,具有较大的应用前景。     

新型自动气象站故障判断及处理办法

摘要：通过对新型自动气象站在运行过程中常见故障的分析,结合新型自动气象站的功能结构,总结故障发生的现象、原因和维修方法,供同行借鉴参考。