近百年西北太平洋热带气旋年频数的变化特征

利用经趋势订正的１８８４－１９８８年西北太平洋热带气旋年频数资料，分析了热带气旋年频数的多年变化及其与海面温度、南方涛动指数、太阳黑子数和环流型日数等的统计关系。初步结果表明，热带气旋年频数的变化具有明显的２１年、３１年、１５年和６年左右的周期和持续期平均为１２年左右的阶段变化；近百年来有三次较明显的转折，分别出现在１９３１、１９５９年１９７７年。热带气旋年频数在厄尔尼诺年有冬春季偏少、夏秋季偏多     

鄱阳湖水龄季节性变化特征

基于环境水动力学模型EFDC源程序,建立了染色剂模型和水龄模型,在将模型与航测水文数据验证吻合的基础上,分别计算了鄱阳湖自然条件下春、夏、秋、冬季的水龄和倒灌前后鄱阳湖染色剂和水龄分布的变化,以及五河水系各分支河流水龄.分季节的水龄计算表明鄱阳湖水体交换受季节性来水影响明显.夏、秋季的水龄相对较小,在多数年份又受到长江水倒灌的影响导致水龄有所增大;冬、春季水龄较大,亦无长江水倒灌现象,相较于夏、秋季,水域面积明显减少.分支流的水龄计算表明,西南湖区的水体交换主要受到赣江的影响,西北湖区水体交换主要受到修水和赣江的影响,南部湖区主要受到抚河与信江的影响,东部湖区主要受到饶河的影响,湖心区和入江水道则受到五河水系的综合影响.同时水龄的研究表明拟建的鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程"调枯不调洪"的原则是合理的,为鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程论证提供了重要的参考依据.     

太湖平原WJ孔矿物磁学特征以及晚第四纪海侵事件

基于古地磁和AMS¹⁴C定年结果,对长江三角洲太湖平原的WJ孔进行岩性特征、矿物磁学、粒度分析及有孔虫化石研究,拟重建WJ孔记录的晚第四纪以来沉积环境演变过程与海侵事件,并探讨环境磁学参数对河口三角洲地区沉积环境演化的指示意义.研究结果表明,WJ孔可以划分为中更新世阶段I、中更新世阶段II、晚更新世、全新世四个阶段,沉积地貌环境分别为:河湖、滨海-阶地、河口坝-河口湾-潮滩与阶地、湖沼平原.WJ孔揭示了三次海侵事件,分别为中更新世晚期海侵,晚更新世MIS5海侵和晚更新世MIS3海侵.其中记录的MIS5e海侵最为强盛,MIS3后期也存在一次海侵加强事件.另外,滨海潮滩-河口坝环境的沉积物磁性特征明显,χ_lf、SIRM、HIRM等为显著高值.     

秦皇岛南李庄泻湖的形成与环境变化

三个钻孔的岩心表明,南李庄泻湖沉积可分为5层,最大厚度15m左右。根据孢粉、微量元素以及岩相特点可将泻湖的演化分为5个阶段。资料表明,湖水变深时期是气候温湿时期,湖水变浅时期为气候凉干时期,指示泻湖的兴衰明显受气候控制。     

模糊信息熵与环境质量综合评价

本文从信息论观点出发,分析了环境评价中各评价指标(或因子)的模糊信息熵与权重之间的关系,认为可用模糊信息熵函数给各指标赋权。文中给出了实例,并利用模糊信息熵对评价结果的可靠性作了分析。     

区域环境质量的层次模糊综合评价模型及应用

本文在模糊综合评判方法中引入层次分析法,对区域环境进行综合评价。在综合评判中,利用层次分析原理给各因素赋权,具有定性与定量相结合的特点。实例表明,该模型为区域环境质量综合评价提供了一条新的途径。     

P-T大气稳定度日夜分界限取值的研究

本文用两种不同日夜分界限统计了成都、重庆的P-T大气稳定度频率。结果表明,两种分界统计大气稳定度频率,不稳定类完全相同;以h=0分界比以h=k_1分界中性频率增加,稳定频率减少,两者频率差值大小与地理位置、气候和天气特征有关;这与理论分析完全符合。通过对比指出,h=0分界的应用有局限性。同时,通过计算表明,实际工作中,太阳赤纬σ每十日取一概略值已足够精确了。     

班戈错盐湖古湖岸堤石英光释光年代学及其古环境指示意义研究

古湖岸堤是湖泊湖面变化的地貌学证据,通过古湖岸堤沉积年代学研究可重建地质时期湖泊演化历史。青藏高原内陆湖泊众多,保存了大量的第四纪时期古湖岸堤,是研究过去湖泊演化和气候变化信息的重要载体。对青藏高原班戈错盐湖北岸和东岸的低位连续古湖岸堤开展了地貌调查和光释光年代学研究。结果表明班戈错自末次冰消期(13. 5±1. 2 ka BP)以来,湖面整体呈波动下降过程,期间出现了4期湖面稳定阶段,分别在末次冰消期(13. 5±1. 2～11. 2±1. 0 ka BP)、全新世早中期(10. 1±0. 8～6. 5±0. 5 ka BP)、全新世后期(4. 2±0. 4～3. 1±0. 2 ka BP)以及全新世晚期(1. 7±0. 1～1. 2±0. 1 ka BP)。全新世晚期约1. 7 ka BP以后湖面迅速退缩,湖泊蒸发浓缩进入盐湖阶段。在末次冰消期班戈错高湖面形成主要与北半球太阳辐射强度增加引起气温升高,导致区域冰雪融水量增加相关,而在全新世湖面变化主要受印度季风强度变化控制。     

Global pesticide use and trade database (GloPUT): New estimates show pesticide use trends in low-income countries substantially underestimated

Assessments of pesticide impacts globally and holistic policies to address them require accurate pesticide use data, but good use data are difficult to find. For comparable estimates across countries, researchers and policymakers depend upon pesticide use data collected by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). We analyze the FAO database and find declines in data reporting and data quality since 2007. We present a novel method that uses bilateral paired mirror trade statistics and an index of reporter reliability to add, update and/or replace data for 137 countries. The resulting Global Pesticide Use and Trade (GloPUT) database shows pesticide use in low and lower-middle income countries has been substantially underestimated. Over the last decade, global pesticide use grew 20% by volume; use in low-income countries grew by 153% over the same period. GloPUT estimates more accurately reflect social science findings on recent agrichemical supply chain restructuring and agrarian development, which indicate substantial increases in pesticide use. Significant issues with data reporting and quality mean that the impacts of recent changes in pesticide production, availability and adoption were not reflected in the FAO database, and, as a result, neither are they reflected in high profile environmental assessments.     

Context matters: The drivers of environmental concern in European regions

Environmental concern is crucial as bottom-up support for policies that aim to tackle the multiple ecological crises. This paper investigates which characteristics of 206 European regions are robust drivers of generalized environmental concern. To this end, 25 Eurobarometer survey waves between 2009 and 2019 were combined with measures of the regional economy, population, geography, environmental quality, and meteorological events. Bayesian model averaging is used to systematically account for model uncertainty in the estimation of partial correlations. The results indicate that environmental concern increases with income level, a more equal distribution of income and wealth, and a less greenhouse gas-intensive industrial sector. Furthermore, regions with younger and better educated populations exhibit higher levels of environmental concern. In terms of environmental characteristics, both geographical vulnerability to natural hazards and meteorological events affect environmental concern. The results highlight the importance of the socio-economic and environmental context of opinion formation and have implications for designing and communicating environmental policies.