Subsurface influence on SST in the tropical Indian Ocean: structure and interannual variability

Interannual variations of subsurface influence on SST in the Indian Ocean show strong seasonality. The subsurface influence on SST confines to the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) in boreal winter and spring; it is observed on both sides of the equator in boreal summer and fall. Interannual long Rossby waves are at the heart of this influence, and contribute significantly to the coupled climate variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Principal forcing mechanism for the generation of these interannual waves in the Indian Ocean and the relative influence of two dominant interannual signals in the tropics, namely El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are also discussed. Two distinct regions dominated by either of the above climate signals are identified. IOD dominates the forcing of the off-equatorial Rossby waves, north of 10°S, and the forcing comes mainly from the anomalous Ekman pumping associated with the IOD. However, after the demise of IOD activity by December, Rossby waves are dominantly forced by ENSO, particularly south of 10°S.It is found that the subsurface feedback in the northern flank of the southern Indian Ocean ridge region (north of 10°S) significantly influences the central east African rainfall in boreal fall. The Indian Ocean coupled process further holds considerable capability of predicting the east African rainfall by one season ahead. Decadal modulation of the subsurface influence is also noticed during the study period. The subsurface influence north of 10°S coherently varies with the IOD, while it varies coherently with the ENSO south of this latitude.     

风应力对热带斜压海洋的强迫

利用一个线性的具有不同密度、温度的热带海洋两层模式,分析了热带西太平洋对纬圈风应力的响应.解析地求得热带西太平洋温跃层厚度、洋流及海温分布.结果表明次表层温度变化明显要比表层海温变化大,同时在大洋西部次表层发展起来的扰动向东传播能引起海温分布形态的异常.理论结果支持观测己表明的热带西太平洋物理量的变异在ElNino/La Nina事件中起着重要作用的事实.     

西太平洋次表层海温异常与北赤道流异常海温西传

通过对热带太平洋上层XBT温度资料分析,探讨了对厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件发生起重要作用的西太平洋暖池区次表层海温变暖异常的变化规律,揭示了影响西太平洋暖池区次表层海温变暖异常的形成机制.分析表明:西太平洋暖池区的次表层海温异常变暖与赤道太平洋的北赤道流(10°N)的海温异常存在密切关系.在El Nino事件发生的前期,位于赤道中东太平洋的异常暖水沿北赤道流温跃层潜沉向西太平洋暖池区输送,在西太平洋暖池堆积并向赤道西太平洋扩展,当异常暖水达到一定强度,并在大气的强迫下,异常暖水沿温跃层东传至赤道中东太平洋并上浮于海面,最终导致El Nino事件的爆发.北赤道流的异常海温西传是导致西太平洋暖池区次表层海温异常的重要机制,是导致El Nino事件发生的关键.     

试论厄尔尼诺对广西气候异常影响的物理机制

通过对瓦克环流、哈德莱环流、副热带高压、台风等的分析 ,结合广西降水和气温异常状况 ,认为厄尔尼诺现象发生时 ,赤道东太平洋海温异常升高 ,使瓦克环流和哈得莱环流发生变化 ,引起副热带高压增强 ,台风生成数减少 ,从而产生广西前汛期偏涝 ,后汛期偏旱 ,全年气温偏暖的结果     

PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997-1999 EL NINOAND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL*

The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performed reasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in 1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical Pacific SSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated that the occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997-1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairly well by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and the developing tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predictedsuccessfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina events are above 0.5 at 0-14 lead months.     

南海北部1987～1988年颗粒物质和硅藻通量的季节性变化:季风气候与 El Nino的响应

南海北部1987年9月～1988年10月沉积物捕获器中颗粒物质和硅藻通量的季节性变化受到季风气候的控制.颗粒物质与硅藻在东北和西南季风盛行期增加,在季风转变期减少.浅层和深层的颗粒总通量、蛋白石通量、碳酸钙通量、蛋白石/颗粒总通量比值、碳酸钙/颗粒总通量比值、有机碳/磷的比值以及浅层硅藻Thalassionema nitzschioides、Coscinodiscus excentricus、Coscinodiscus nodulifer、Nitzschia marina和Rhizosolenia bergonii的通量在东北季风期间明显地增加了,这些变化可能与1987年～1988年发生的EINino事件相关.     

厄尔尼诺与亚洲季风对港澳地区降雨影响

分析研究了香港1853～1997年（145年）、澳门1901～1997年（97年）的月和年降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：（1）香港、澳门年降雨量存在准2～6年的周期振荡，澳门年降雨量有很强的长期趋势，香港年降雨量无明显趋势；（2）香港、澳门年内雨量的峰值出现在西南季风期（6月和8月），而谷值在东北季风期（12月）；（3）EI Nino事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为正，降雨偏多。在La Nila事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为负，降雨偏少。     

The earthquake sequence of May 1951 at Jucuapa, El Salvador

Three earthquakes that happened over two days in May 1951 caused extensive damage to villages in a small area of eastern El Salvador (Central America). Contemporary hypocentral solutions indicated focal depths, confirmed by re-calculations using available seismic data, of the order of 90 km, suggesting events associated with the subducted Cocos plate. Macroseismic observations strongly indicate that the earthquakes were of very shallow focus and this is supported by wave-form modeling and the appearance of seismograms recorded in Guatemala. A re-evaluation of the location and source characteristics for these events is presented, together with a fault plane solution and additional macroseismic evidence. The implications for seismic hazard and risk assessment in Central America, where shallow earthquakes of moderate magnitude, frequently occurring in clusters, pose the greatest threat to settlements which, like the area affected by these events, are concentrated along the axis of Quaternary volcanoes.     

Sources, distribution and storage of heavy metals in the Río Pilcomayo, Bolivia

The Río Pilcomayo rises on the Cerro Rico de Potosí precious metal-polymetallic tin deposits of Bolivia, and flows in a southeasterly direction for ca. 600 km to Bolivia's southern border with Argentina. Mining of the Potosí deposits has occurred continuously since 1545, generating large quantities of waste materials in the headwater of the basin. In addition, a tailings dam breach at the Porco mine in 1996 released an estimated 235 000 m³ of tailings and fluid into the upper reaches of the Río Pilaya, the largest tributary to the Pilcomayo.Concentrations of As, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ag, Tl and Zn in contemporary channel sediments upstream of the Pilaya confluence are significantly elevated above background values. Elevated levels appear to be associated with pyrite- and other sulphide mineral-bearing tailings materials transported more than 200 km downstream of the Potosí mines. Significant downstream declines in elemental concentrations occur within 15 km, and again between 150 and 200 km, from the mines. The initial decrease in concentrations is due to the rapid dilution of nearly pure tailings effluent released to the river from milling facilities near Potosí. The latter decrease results from a combination of geomorphic processes including the storage of sediment-borne metals within the channel bed and the influx of ‘clean’ sediment from several large tributaries. Downstream of the Pilaya confluence, concentrations of Cu, Pb, Hg and Zn are only slightly elevated above background values, and Ag, Cd, Sb and Tl cannot be distinguished from background levels. These data suggest that while the Porco tailings spill may have had a significant short-term impact on sediment and water quality along the lower reaches of the Río Pilcomayo, its longer-term impacts were limited. Metals stored and eroded from alluvial deposits of historical age in upstream reaches appear to be an important source of metals to the river today. An additional, and perhaps more significant source, is the release of tailings effluent to the river from modern milling operations. The transport of these contaminants downstream of Icla (203 km from Potosí) appears to be restricted by aggradational processes occurring in the vicinity of Puente Sucre. In addition, downstream of the confluence of the Río Pilaya, inputs of large amounts of ‘clean’ sediment have caused dilution of the metal contaminants. Data from other studies where similar geomorphic processes have occurred suggest that the metals in the upper Pilcomayo may eventually be moved downvalley as the aggradational processes are reversed and channel stabilisation occurs. Thus, the most significant impacts of metal contamination may not be realised in downstream areas for decades.     

广西巴里—龙头山100号锡多金属矿床成矿物理化学环境研究——氧逸度(f_(o_2))、CO_2逸度(f_(co_2))、硫逸度(f_(s_2))、mΣs

根据已知的 10 0号矿体的成矿温度及成矿压力 ,并结合矿体的矿物组合推算出10 0号矿体是在相对低硫、氧和二氧化碳逸度 ,溶液为酸性至弱碱性的物理化学环境下形成的。