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121.
本文以我国北黄海的烟威渔场为研究对象,采用优选因子场预报模式,对盐度的时空变化进行预报试验。文中对所采用的统计预报方法,作了简要介绍。对影响本海区盐度变化的显著因子及预报结果作了初步分析。预报试验表明:预报的总体平均绝对误差为0.27‰,预报相对误差在18%左右,预报误差小于0.5‰的站数占总站数的85%,预报趋势与实测资料基本一致。 相似文献
122.
123.
青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。 相似文献
124.
三传感器波浪水槽二次反射主动吸收方法是加拿大科学院水力中心最近开发的一种水槽反射波控制技术。该法在造波板前 1~ 2倍波长处布置 3个传感器 ,通过入反射波分离方法得到准确的入反射波参数 ,以此调整造波信号 ,有效地吸收由建筑物反射回到造波板的二次反射波。文中在分析波浪水槽二次反射吸收方法研究现状的基础上 ,介绍了加拿大水力中心对现有方法的改进及其效果 相似文献
125.
长江口深水航道数学模型信息系统研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
利用GIS二次开发软件ArcView,完成数学模拟所需的计算网格生成及线边界法中地形数据提取的优化。集成ArcView、Visual Basic及长江口潮流数学模型,实现了数值模拟计算成果的三维可视化及实时互动的动态演示。所开发的长江口数学模型信息系统能根据整治工程需要,提交各类工程数据库。 相似文献
126.
127.
Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in the western Indian Ocean. First, we analyzed the temperature and the temperature anomaly (TA) along the equatorial Indian Ocean in different layers. This shows that stronger cold and warm TA signals appeared at subsurface than at the surface in the tropical Indian O-cean. This result shows that there may be a strong dipole mode pattern in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Secondly we used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to analyze the TA at thermocline layer. The first EOF pattern was a dipole mode pattern. Finally we analyzed the correlations between DMT and surface tropical dipole mode (SDM), DMT and Nino 3 SSTA, etc. and these correlations are strong. 相似文献
128.
The effect of the cone spacing of a conieal structure on the ice force is studied by model experiments. The ice force reduction coefficient presented in this paper expresses the relationship between the ice force and the arrangement of cones. The experiments prove that the mode of the ice failure before the boundary of upward-downward bending cone (UDBC) is crushing. A conclusion can also be drawn from the experiments that the ice force on the boundary of UDBC is by far less than that on a vertical pile with the same diameter. Moreover, the ice force frequencies on upright and inve-rted cones are obtained under the field condition of the platform JZ20-2, respectively. The results show that the alterna-tion of the ice force on UDBC can hardly induce resonance of platform JZ20-2. 相似文献
129.
We have examined wind-induced circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk using a barotropic model that contains realistic topography
with a resolution of 9.25 km. The monthly wind stress field calculated from daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis data is used as the forcing, and the integration is carried out for 20 days until the circulation
attains an almost steady state. In the case of November (a representative for the winter season from October to March), southward
currents of velocity 0.1–0.3 m s−1 occur along the bottom contours off the east of Sakhalin Island. The currents are mostly confined to the shelf (shallower
than 200 m) and extend as far south as the Hokkaido coast. In the July case (a representative for the summer season from April
to September), significant currents do not occur, even in the shallow shelves. The simulated southward current over the east
Sakhalin shelf appears to correspond to the near-shore branch of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC), which was observed with
the surface drifters. These seasonal variations simulated in our experiments are consistent with the observations of the ESC.
Dynamically, the simulated ESC is interpreted as the arrested topographic wave (ATW), which is the coastally trapped flow
driven by steady alongshore wind stress. The volume transport of the simulated ESC over the shelf reaches about 1.0 Sv (1
Sv = 106 m3s−1) in the winter season, which is determined by the integrated onshore Ekman transport in the direction from which shelf waves
propagate.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
130.
To study ice-induced vibration of a compliant conical structure,a series of model tests were performed from 2004 to 2005.In the tests,the ice sheet before the compliant conical structure was found to fail in two-time breaking.From 2005 to 2006,this type of ice failure was studied through more groups of tests.The tests show that two-time breaking is the typical failure of ice before steep conical structures,and is controlled by other factors at the same time,such as ice speed and the angle of the cone. 相似文献